NL teams seeking answers to the leadoff spot

Productive offenses begin with good leadoff men. That’s why when major league teams consider their off-season hopes and plans, one of the first areas they’ll look at will be the guy they project to hold down the No. 1 spot in the batting order.

The problem is there are so few players today groomed with natural leadoff skills that almost no team can rely on filling that leadoff spot with a productive, logical, polished hand on its roster.

For reasons that are not entirely clear, leadoff skills have been de-emphasized as front offices emphasize power productivity.

It’s not as if the importance of a leadoff hitter isn’t recognized. Ask any exec the stat they most assiduously pursue and they’re likely to cite OPS…half of which is on base average, the most important skill of a leadoff man.

Yet when one ponders a formula for leadoff productivity, few players fill it.

What would that formula be? As noted, it begins with on base percentage. The classic description of a leadoff man is as a table setter. But there are a couple other highly desirable components.

The second, almost as important, is the ability of a leadoff hitter to manipulate himself into scoring position by his own abilities. How doesn’t matter; it could be via an extra base hit or stolen base … or, in rare cases, a balk. The point is to get to second without requiring the manager to burn an out in the process.

The third and final characteristic of a good leadoff man is obvious, but should not be overlooked. It is the ability to score runs. That’s the point of the game, after all. And while run-scoring certainly is situation-dependent, a good player can enhance his numbers by dint of superb base-running.

An ideal leadoff man should be able to do all three of these things – get on base, get himself into scoring position unaided and score – at least 20 percent more frequently than the average player.

There’s one final consideration: the player’s abilities should not be such that it makes more sense to use him in a run-production position. Juan Soto is the runaway leader this year in on base average, ranks second in the NL in runs scored, and is also excellent at getting himself into scoring position unaided. Yet nobody in their right mind would propose that the Nats move Soto from the third to the first spot in their batting order next year.

Still, so few teams have qualified leadoff hitters under contract for 2022 that they’ll have to take one of three more chancy approaches. They’ll either have to try to trade for or sign one, they’ll have to hope to find somebody on their own system whose skills can be upgraded, or they’ll have to do without.

Here’s a look at where all 15 National League teams are in the search for a good leadoff hitter entering 2022.