It’s going to take a lot to work up any enthusiasm for the postseason chances of the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Brewers may have controlled the NL Central since early June, and they may have wrapped up the title more than a week ago. But their certified post-season status is not reflected in their play on the field down the stretch.
Milwaukee Brewers stumbling into postseason
The list of reasons to suspect that the Brewers are set up for a postseason pratfall – probably as soon as their division series meeting with the NL East champion Atlanta Braves – is substantial and growing. Consider the following:
Since Sept. 19 – basically the season’s final two weeks – they have a 4-10 record. That includes just one win against nine defeats in games against other post-season teams, namely the Cardinals and Dodgers.
To find a team that performed that badly down the stretch and still won the World Series, you have to reach all the way back to 2006. That year the Cardinals lost 10 of their final 14, eked in as a wild card, then beat the Padres, Mets, and Tigers to win it all.
Since then, the average record of an eventual World Series winner over the final two weeks is a solid 9-5. Only one team – the 2014 Giants at 6-8 – won the World Series after finishing below .500 for the season’s final two weeks.
It’s not just that the Brewers are losing, it’s how. Over those final two weeks, they’ve been out-scored 73-50. Their team run production – 3.5 per game since mid-September, is a full run below their season-long pace. The same pitching staff that allowed just 3.8 runs per game all year has recently been allowing 5.7.
Batting average has never been a Brewer strength; they’re hitting just .234 for the year, 14th among the 15 NL teams. But since mid-September, even that run-of-the-mill average has cratered, to just .207. They’ve been out-homered 20-13.
Pitching is supposed to be a Brewer strength. Their 3.45 season-long ERA ranks third in the NL. Yet over the final two weeks, they allowed earned runs at a rate of nearly five per game.
The Cardinals, who the Brewers could meet in the NLCS, beat Brandon Woodruff twice. The Dodgers knocked out Corbin Burnes in just two innings Saturday,
Milwaukee’s recent post-season history is also problematic. They’re on a four-game postseason losing streak, having been knocked out in two games last year by the Dodgers, losing the 2019 wild card game to Washington, and dropping a seventh NLCS game to Los Angeles in 2018.
And then there’s the matter of reliever Devin Williams’ broken hand, about which the less said probably the better.
Here’s the bottom line. The Milwaukee Brewers may have won the NL Central, but they quit playing like a championship team two weeks ago. Doing anything this post-season will require a major alteration of recent form.