Who will disappear from the Phillies before spring?
As Major League Baseball drives toward the World Series with two pairs of pretty evenly matched teams, it is the season for all good baseball writers to play general manager of some team or another. In the case of the Philadelphia Phillies, the skeleton baseball staff covering the team for Inquirer.com has already delivered itself of their opinions (two) about which players should stay and which should go.
Consider the following a discussion with Scott Lauber and Matt Breen, the de facto baseball staff for that news organization.
Breen and Lauber put together their recommendations to fans and the Phillies front office on Oct. 14, both “deciding” on each player on the 40-man roster except most of those not yet eligible for arbitration. That cut out 11 players, but they also commented on Alec Bohm, who isn’t arbitration eligible until 2024.
None of the 11 excluded is clearly an important team piece yet with the possible exception of promising reliever J.D. Hammer, a hard throwing right-hander (read, he should not be traded except for very good value).
So, we’ll keep Hammer – who else should stay – or go? Perhaps the who’s going question is the best approach here since Lauber and Breen, who have been covering MLB for a combined 24 years, see a lot of players on the way out the door.
Lauber would excise 11 of the ’21 Phils; Breen would get rid of 12.
After all, the team barely had a winning season despite their expensive, star-led line-up. And it’s hard to argue with these writers’ general approach since the Phillies had the probable league MVP in right field and the arguable league Cy Young awardee starting every fifth day.
Changes are needed. Among those the Inquirer writers would jettison, there at six players on both their lists – Odubel Herrera, Roman Quinn, Matt Moore, Ian Kennedy, Archie Bradley, and Cam Bedrosian.
All of these players likely can be replaced by six equivalents among the 318 free agents listed by Sportrac.com Oct. 20, so Breen and Lauber get no argument from me on any of them. The oft-injured Quinn is an unfortunate case, and Bradley might be kept if he could be impressed with the need to cut down on men he puts on base.
Otherwise, Moore, Kennedy, Bradley, and Bedrosian are black marks on the 10-month-old record of the front office team led by Phillies president Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld.
The High Profile Players Likely Gone
Next, let’s consider the higher level players who could be on various roads to other teams.
The Inky writers agree on only one of the high-profile Phillies leaving – Andrew McCutchen.
The 13-year-veteran and former MVP has a team-option contract worth $15 million with a $3 million buyout. McCutchen put up quite reasonable power numbers for a 34-year-old player, 27 home runs, and 80 RBI in 144 games, but he hit only .222. His OPS was .778, 77th among 132 qualified players.
But none of those numbers is as important as McCutchen’s age next year, 35, or $15 million. In other words, the Phillies will shock the baseball world if they pick up his option. They will thank McCutchen for his leadership, effort, sense of humor, and allow him to consider other options. This is the right decision.
Beyond McCutchen, Breen would have the Phillies let Didi Gregorius go, and Lauber would dispatch one-time closer Hector Neris.
Gregorius suddenly seems a spent player, but he might not be, and letting him go is a problem. He is owed $15.25 million for next season. There seems no way to avoid bringing the shortstop to spring training with a possibly healed elbow, but he should be traded after that point, even if the Phillies have to eat some of his contract.
Hector Neris is another story. No longer the Phillies closer, the right-hander drives most of the team’s fans crazy, but he should be kept as the team’s seventh or eighth inning reliever. His special pitch, the split-finger fastball, is a bit too inconsistent for him to close, but he has learned how to handle that better than he once did. (Golly, maybe he has to go to other pitches momentarily if the split isn’t working well. Maybe a well-located 95-mph, straighter fastball. He can do that.)
Neris is a free agent, should be relatively affordable, and is a good clubhouse presence. Don’t be surprised, though, if the Phillies brain trust thinks they can find someone equivalent for less than he deserves, about $6 million.
Among the others discussed by Lauber and Breen, some further comment is warranted.
The Big Names, the Injured, and the Bench
The only properly termed Big Names on the Phillies at this point are Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, and Ranger Suarez. After last season, Jean Segura will probably be back as well although his contract is expensive at this point.
Suarez isn’t arbitration eligible yet, and no one would seriously consider cutting loose Harper, Wheeler, or Realmuto. Aaron Nola might also be on some “keep lists,” but a puzzling year of ineffective pitches and bad luck has likely stricken him from other rolls.
Breen and Lauber would keep Nola. However, with careful evaluation of what they might get in return, the Phillies might consider trading him at this point. Again, with very careful evaluation, and one of the players returned should be a starter who is MLB-ready.
The Inky writers have at least two double “stay” votes among their opinions that might be considered surprises. They would both keep Rhys Hoskins and Jose Alvarado.
Hoskins might not be as big a surprise as Alvarado, but few Phillies fans are now entirely sure Hoskins is a team cornerstone; unfortunately, this is because of injury time lost to an extent, but Hoskins is also likely to be a streaky player his whole career. Maybe that will smooth out. Free agent alternatives are wanting or too expensive (Freddie Freeman).
Alvarado is the team’s most obvious candidate for at least one “go” vote between not only any two fans, but also any two baseball writers. Neither Breen or Lauber want him gone, however. Go figure. It seems to me that there must be other set-up relievers available who throw as hard as or nearly as hard as the Phillies left-hander.
Finally, in terms of individual player discussion, Ronald Torreyes should be kept. The Inky writers split on that. However, no player besides Bryce Harper seemed to have as many big moments this past season as Torreyes. How many tweets from Phillies fans read simply, “Where would we be with Ronald Torreyes?”
The answer is below .500. He got key hits. His defense was the second best in the infield to Segura’s.
Next. Phillies winter task: Keep Bryce Harper happy. dark
Any other member of the Phillies 40-man squad not designated a keeper here should be fighting for an MLB job in spring training. That’s why they’re paid, minimally, six-figure salaries – to perform under pressure.