Rotations are out of fashion this MLB postseason

The next time you hear some pseudo-expert say that the key to winning in the MLB postseason is a dominant rotation, tell them they don’t know what they’re talking about.

In the 2021 postseason, at least, nothing could be further from the truth.

The importance of a powerful top-to-bottom rotation has been routinely cited during this season, particularly by those who made the Dodgers a prohibitive favorite to repeat as World Series champions. As far back as spring, the pseudo-experts cited a Dodger rotation that included Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, and – if needed – David Price – as the key to Dodger success.

Then when Bauer was sidelined at midseason by a domestic violence investigation, the Dodgers replaced him with Max Scherzer.

Starting rotations are not as important in the MLB postseason

But Kershaw came up lame, Price was inactivated, Gonsolin never engendered the confidence his reputation suggested, and the rest of the rotation has been spotty in October.

The result: The Dodgers enter Saturday’s Game 6 of the National League Championship Series still breathing…but it sure isn’t due to their rotation. In 11 postseason games to date, Dodger “starters” – and given the use of three ‘openers’ that word is employed in the loosest possible sense – have averaged just four innings.

But even subtracting the three one-inning openers, the average duration of the legit starters only rises to five innings.

The striking thing is that by the standards of the MLB postseason, Dodger starters are at the top, not the bottom, of the rotational food chain. Red Sox starters are barely lasting four innings per start, the same is true of Braves starters, and Astros starters aren’t even making it that far. Dusty Baker’s starters are averaging barely 11 outs per outing…and winning.

Through the postseason’s first 29 games, managers pulled their starters after three innings or less 20 times…and won eight of those 20.

The average duration of the starting pitcher of a winning team this postseason is less than 13 outs.

If it’s any consolation to believers in the importance of a rotation, starters of postseason losing teams don’t even do that well. They’re gone by the 11th out.

Only three starters this entire postseason have even faced a batter in the eighth inning of a game. Giants starters Logan Webb lasted three hitters and two outs into the eighth inning of his 4-0 shutout of the Dodgers in Game 1 of their division series. Two games later, Max  Scherzer completed eight innings but allowed a fifth inning home run to Evan Longoria and lost 1-0.

Then Wednesday night, Houston’s Framber Valdez pitched eight solid innings before being pulled in his team’s 9-1 dismantling of the Red Sox.

As for the big, big pitching names…they no longer do length. Scherzer’s three post-season starts have averaged a fraction more than 17 outs. Walker Buehler is averaging about 14 outs per start, one fewer than Jose Urias.

Nathan Eovaldi has been widely hailed as the savior of Boston’s pitching staff. Yet he’s barely averaging 16 outs in his three postseason starts. That’s almost identical to the performance of Atlanta ace Max Fried.

As for the Astros’ rotation, don’t ask. In nine postseason games, Dusty Baker has yanked his starter by the third inning five times. Only two – Valdez Wednesday night and the now-injured Lance McCullers in the first game of Houston’s division series against the White Sox – even lasted long enough to legally qualify for the win.

Here’s the bottom line; A lot of things go into achieving postseason success. But in 2021, a dominant effort from the starter is rarely one of them.