Phillies: Here’s a strong dumbest offseason-idea nominee

Boy, that didn’t take long. As I type, the World Series isn’t even over, and already we have the flat-out dumbest idea of the Not-So-Hot Stove season. A writer for a certain East Coast news agency has suggested that “the most obvious deal of the offseason” would be the Philadelphia Phillies giving the New York Yankees pitcher Aaron Nola for outfielder Joey Gallo.

I will leave this writer unidentified since I didn’t read his whole piece because I don’t pay for his service’s news, although some of the “stuff” that isn’t designated “Subscriber Exclusive” isn’t bad at all. However, said service made the mistake of posting the whole first graf of this piece, which suggested the trade above.

Welcome to the most ridiculous Phillies trade rumor yet

This, then, affords you and me some space to speculate about the defense of such an idea, or perhaps the writer’s ultimate rejection of it, which would be quite a reversal since the deal is, allegedly, “the most obvious.” We don’t know what he said ultimately.

But the title of the piece was “Imagining a Phillies-Yankees offseason trade blockbuster.” Yeah, you could google it now, but this might be more fun if you don’t…

Shall we consider the arguments that could be made for such a swap?

One, both players had off seasons and they will thrive in their new environments. All the data is readily online regarding the two down seasons.

Two, Aaron Nola is tired of losing with the Phillies, and Joey Gallo will learn to be a complete hitter and great fielder.

Three, Nola is highly suspected of not being vaccinated against COVID, which alienated fans and teammates, or is somehow “too cool for school” and Phillies fans. (This is a problem Mike Schmidt had.) In fact, many Phillies players were not vaccinated this past season until very late in it.

Four, maybe players are added to the possible trade, which would be one path to sensibility, because…

The notion of the Phillies giving up Aaron Nola for Joey Gallo is not a good one.

Aaron Nola has been a winning pitcher for a losing team, not a mean feat in any MLB era. Joey Gallo is a lifetime .206 hitter. Nola remains a Cy Young-potential pitcher. Gallo remains a power threat who hit .199 this past season.

However, although Nola’s won-lost record has dropped to 14-14 for the last two seasons, his lifetime record is still 67-49 and his career ERA 3.68. Moreover, it is fairly likely that had 2020 been a full season, when he posted a 3.28 ERA, his aggregate two-year ERA (4.25) would be lower.

In his seven years with the Phillies, the team record was 471-561. In other words, Aaron Nola has been 18 wins better than .500 while his team has been 90 wins under that waterline.

And Nola’s peripheral numbers remain strong. His WHIP for 2020-21 was 1.115 and his FIP for the period was 3.32. For his 44 games started over that stretch, he walked 2.2 batters per nine innings while striking out 11.4.

Yes, he didn’t finish off hitters with two strikes at times this past season very well.

On the other hand, Joey Gallo remains the everyday player who led MLB in strikeouts in 2021, and for his career, has struck out 885 times in 626 games. In three of his seven seasons, he has had more than 195 trips back to the dugout without putting the ball into play.

Yes, he won a Gold Glove once when his total chances were limited to 123, in the first COVID year. For his career, his fielding percentage is four points below average. In ’21 it was eleven points below average.

Yes, the Phillies are thought to need two everyday outfielders, assuming they don’t pick up Andrew McCutchen’s expensive option, but they also need a fifth starter. The first step toward that goal would not be divesting the club of their second or third starter for a guy who played 56 of his 57 games in his Gold Glove “season” at Bryce Harper’s position.

Aaron Nola could once again be the Phillies number one starter in 2022. Joey Gallo, in contrast, will definitely strike out a lot.