Chicago Cubs should go after Sean Manaea

The Chicago Cubs should make Sean Manaea a top trade acquisition target this off-season.

There are several reasons why the Cubs ought to pursue Manaea. First and most notably, pitching is an obvious team need.

Sean Manaea a perfect fit for Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are projected to feature Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills as their top two starters. They also picked up Wade Miley this week on a waiver claim.

But Mills was only 6-7 with a plus-5.00 ERA in 2021, making him hardly a sure thing looking ahead. Beyond those three, Chicago’s best present options are all unproven: Adbert Alzolay (5-13, 4.58 in 21 starts), Justin Steele (4-4, 4.26 ERA in nine starts), and Keegan Thompson (3-3, 3.38 ERA in six starts).

Plainly the Northsiders are a team in need of additional veteran support.

The Cubs can, if they choose to do so, pursue filling that need in the free agent market. But proven free agent pitching talent is always pricey and dangerous, since pitchers are subject to injury. This year, in particular, it’s also old, headlined by such veterans as Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

At age 29, Manaea is a young veteran. Coming off 2019 surgery, he made 32 starts and completed 179 innings in 2021, establishing his health. At 11-10 and with a 3.91 ERA, he produced competent if not overpowering numbers.

But why would the Oakland Athletics consider making Manaea available? The answer, as it often is with Oakland, is money. Manaea is a fourth-year arbitration player entering 2022, and as such – assuming arbitration remains in play when a new Basic Agreement is settled on – he stands to make upwards of $20 million in 2022.

The Cubs have that kind of money; the Athletics do not. If Manaea proves himself in Chicago, the Cubs will have an inside track on signing him to a longer-term deal. If he doesn’t, they’re out of the deal relatively cheaply. After all, they’re going to pay some starter that $20 million next season; the only question is which one.

In his return from that arm injury, Manaea hasn’t been overpowering, but his numbers suggest he can be at least competent at Wrigley Field, and possibly better than that. His career 45 percent ground ball rate is modestly better than the MLB average; ground ball pitchers are always viewed as a plus on the North Side.

With a 22.9 percent career fly ball rate—the average is 35 percent — he is decidedly NOT a fly ball pitcher. Cubs pitchers certainly demonstrated the importance of that in 2021. Alzolay allowed home runs at the rate of 4.82 for every 100 batters he faced. Hendricks, at 3.95, was better, but not great. The Cubs as a team allowed 3.79 dingers per 100 opponent plate appearances.

Manaea, at just 3.32, was far closer to the major league average of 3.27.

He’s also excellent at not hurting himself. In 2021, Manaea walked just 5.44 batters per 100 he faced, well below the 9.69 MLB average. At 9.61, Cubs pitchers were right at the MLB average. He had a 1.23 WHIP in 2021; Hendricks, Mills, Steele, and Thompson were all above 1.30.

Manaea may not project to be the piece that puts the Chicago Cubs over the top in 2022, but he is a reliable, solid starter. Whether the Cubs should actually close the deal obviously depends on the asking price.  But since he is likely to be on the outs in budget-conscious Oakland, his is a name worth pursuing.