MLB’s most valuable players…and how valuable are they?
![Sep 29, 2021; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays second baseman Marcus Semien (10) wears the team home run jacket in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run against New York Yankees in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_752,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape/cover/sport/a96e320888fec55a239c86fcd098c19ab8e75a547ff039b9f9086bed0ce99897.jpg)
They’re passing out the Most Valuable Player awards this week. As always, they’ll do it by a vote.
That traditional way of handling the award is not the most statistically equitable way. A fairer method would be to actually calculate the true on-field value produced by each player during the 2021 season.
That process of determining the game’s most valuable players – and quantifying that value with a real, hard number – is what this essay is about. The performances of nearly 340 pitchers and nearly 275 position players are considered.
Because there are different expectations for different positions, players are analyzed in groups according to the positions they played. For non-pitchers, the fundamental yardsticks are OPS+ — a rate stat — and WAR – a cumulative stat – both of them widely recognized measures of value.
Pitchers are rated in four categories – ERA, workload, ERA+ and WAR — on the same basis.
Within each positional grouping, each player’s performance is measured against both his own salary and the average salary of group members. That underscores the valuable nature of how the market views each position.
Just as one illustration, the average starting MLB second baseman earned just $4.274 million in 2021, about half the salary of the average starting first baseman. The market obviously is making a statement about the value of second baseman.
As a result, no matter how well he does in this week’s Most Valuable Player voting, the name of Blue Jays second baseman Marcus Semien will not make this list.
In fact, several positions are entirely excluded from this list. So, for the record, here are the values of the most valuable players at each position that did not place a player among the top 25:
- Second base: Marcus Semien, Toronto Blue Jays, $19.642 million salary, $9.821 million value, -$8.179 million difference.
- Left field: Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals. $595,000 salary, $4.615 million value, $4.020 million difference.
- Center field: Cedric Mullins Baltimore Orioles. $577,000 salary, $9.943 million value, $9.366 million difference.
- Catcher: Sal Perez, Kansas City Royals. $14.20 million salary, $12.239 million salary, -$1.961 million difference.
- Starting pitchers: Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies. $22.5 million salary, $11.071 million value, -$11.429 million difference.
- Closers: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Indians. $572,000 salary, $8.194 million value, $7.622 million difference.
- Other pitchers: Ranger Suarez, Texas Rangers. $569,000 salary, $6.738 million value, $6.169 million difference.
With that as a prelude, here are the 20 most valuable players of 2021, plus their actual on-field values.
![Brandon Crawford Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/e4f089ecafb196e4e21950b39c09077a4341b537abade31d87b9b3e8cd5ed549.jpg)
20. Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
2021 salary: $15.2 million.
2021 value: $12.444 million.
Difference: -$2.756 million.
The pay structure that has been in place in MLB for decades is in its essence a seniority system. For the first several seasons of a player’s life, he produces more on-field value than he receives in salary. During the final arbitration seasons and – for those who make it that far – free agency – the dynamic reverses: players generally get far more from the team than they contribute to the club’s success.
It’s rare when a player with Crawford’s decade of experience does what he did in 2021, which was to enjoy a career-level season that approximately married his performance value to his salary. That he was able to do so is a significant part of the explanation for why the Giants won 107 games.
Shortstop talent is deep in the majors – there are four shortstops on this top 20 list — yet at 141 and 4.1 Crawford ranks fourth among all of them in both OPS+ and WAR. It’s easy to understand why. At age 34, he had career bests in batting average (.298), on base average (.373), slugging average (.522), home runs (24) and RBIs (90).
The $12.8 million estimate of his on-field value comes up a couple million short of his actual salary, but the Giants will be OK with that. He’s been paid that much annually since 2018 without so much as a whiff of the production he generated this season.
![Mookie Betts: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/1f278a65113d883a7d1e693ed43fefbeff819c1b171872f5d3156439fba3e94f.jpg)
19. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 salary: $22.917
2021 value: $12.601 million
Difference: -$10.316 million
The 2018 Most Valuable Player and 2020 runner-up, Betts entered the season as a strong candidate to lift the Dodgers to a repeat World Series win, and also a strong contender for various pieces of individual hardware.
That those things did not ultimately work out only partly diminishes one’s view of Betts’ season.
Betts’ .264 batting average looks puny by the standards he had previously set for himself. It was his lowest since 2017, and by nearly 30 points. His .854 OPS was off nearly 75 points from a season ago.
Largely for that reason, he only ranked ninth – sort of mid-tier among right fielders – in OPS+ at 128.
What saved Betts was the breadth of his performance. His outfield play measured out at 44 Defensive Runs Saved – that’s about four games worth – and provided a major reason why despite those offensive numbers he still registered a 4.2 WAR. That’s fifth best among major league right fielders.
It averages out to $12.601 in on-field value to the Dodgers, the fifth best among right fielders and 19th best overall.
That’s well off the $22.9 million the Dodgers paid Betts in 2021. But since it also doesn’t factor in all the Dodger-themed merchandise, tickets and paraphernalia Betts persuaded people to buy, the team probably made out decently.
![Trea Turner: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/7b78e3fe139fa6e4cd067afae6c5d902e91791a173a68261c14fd353ae8745f6.jpg)
18. Trea Turner, Washington Nationals/Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 salary: $13 million
2021 value: $13.111 million
Difference: $111,000
Statistically, Turner – not Max Scherzer, not Nelson Cruz, not Kris Bryant, not Joey Gallo, not Anthony Rizzo – was the most valuable player to be moved at the trade deadline.
Playing shortstop for the Nationals, he had a .322 batting average, an .890 OPS and modestly positive Defensive Runs Saved numbers. In Los Angeles, he shifted to second base, continued his competent if not spectacular defensive play, and hit well enough to wrap up the batting title, finishing at .328 for his combined labors.
He also led the league in stolen bases with 32.
Graded as a shortstop because that’s where he made most of his starts, Turner’s 146 OPS+ was exceeded only by San Diego superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. His 6.5 combined WAR with Washington and LA matched Tatis and trailed only Astros shortstop Carlos Correa.
That made him a modestly profitable player – considering only on-field contributions – a rarity among late-arbitration and free-agent eligible players.
It will be instructive to see whether the Dodgers pay any heed to Turner’s approaching Arb 4 status — assuming, of course, arbitration remains intact in the new CBA. That status would normally mean Turner could expect to pull in something close to $20 million in 2022.
As good as his 2021 performance was, there’s no reason to believe he can deliver $20 million worth of stats in support of the Dodger cause. Of course, given the Dodgers’ studied indifference to money, they may not care about return on investment.
![J.D. Martinez Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/137796e06abeb97592455e5d8eff6321c113dad5b6dc18c8a3e21bfb6b041f37.jpg)
17. J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox
2021 salary: $19.375 million
2021 value: $13.185 million
Difference: -$6.195 million
When a team agrees to pay a player in the realm of $20 million, the team can pretty much assume the player will not return approximately that level of on-field value. The team is offering that kind of swag either because it expects to make up the difference in ticket/product sales, or because the nature of the competitive marketplace demands overpayment as the price of getting the coveted player’s signature.
Either of those is a logical motive, even if they don’t necessarily lead to on-field success.
With respect to Martinez, you are free to pick your motivation for why the Red Sox gave him about $108 million for five seasons beginning in 2018.
For that matter, since Boston won the 2018 World Series – with Martinez as a prominent part of the team’s offense – no explanation is really needed. Success is its own explanation.
In 2021, Martinez was the fourth most valuable designated hitter in the American League, which is to say in the market.
It was the statistical consistency of his performance that elevated him to that status. His OPS+ was 126, nice but hardly compelling in that six DHs scored higher. Two of those six, however, had significantly worse WARs than J.D., allowing him to rank behind only Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton and Yordan Alvarez in the final averages.
![Matt Olson. Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/d4eac903d96fce3774fa8f6b8814b117598cae7577f8ac7a434cf73468d463b1.jpg)
16. Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
2021 salary: $5 million.
2021 value: $13.493 million.
Difference: $8.493 million.
Olson is the kind of guy a small-market team like the A’s needs to feature every season in order to be successful. Which makes it kind of ironic that in Olson’s best season, Oakland’s playoff run came up short.
First base is very much a big-money position. The average salary of a regular Major League first baseman in 2021 was about $7.42 million. Only third basemen, right fielders and DHs made more on average, and not much more.
Among the 30 regular first basemen, Olson ranked a middlin’ 13th in paycheck. Yet at 153 he was third in OPS+, and at 5.8 he was also third in WAR. Among the guys who did not measure up to Olson’s 2021 are a few fellows you’ve heard of: Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Jose Abreu, Yuli Gurriel and Pete Alonso.
This was so much Olson’s best year that one wonders whether it is possible for him to approach it again. He had career bests in home runs (39), RBIs (111), average (.271), on base (/371), and walks (88).
Given Oakland’s perennially tight budget situation, Olson’s salary negotiations will be especially fun to watch. Assuming arbitration survives into next season in something approaching its present form, Olson will be a second year arbitration candidate.
The A’s have generally tried to avoid arbitration if at all possible – not a single A’s player has gone to a hearing since 2019. But whether Billy Beane and David Forst can reach a mutually satisfactory agreement with Olson after the kind of season he had may be a challenge of another magnitude.
That may also make him a likely trade candidate. Are you listening, Yankees?
![Carlos Correa. Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/f7fbcb70b8889a7369f9454659021da95dcb2b5e845a56db83d329b493f8e0d9.jpg)
15. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
2021 salary: $11.7 million.
2021 value: $13.572 million
Difference: $1.872 million
The Houston Astros are the only team in MLB with three players among the 20 most valuable during the 2021 season. No wonder they won the American League pennant.
Correa is the first of those three. We’ll get to Yordan Alvarez presently and discuss the third (and most surprising of the trio) later. A free agent this winter, it is almost certainly true that nobody did as much to enhance their value in 2021 as Correa did.
The raw numbers are not always blow-away impressive. Correa hit 26 home runs and drove in 92 runs. Those are nice totals…but 62 players hit more homers and 34 drove in more runs.
His .279 average is basically in line with his. 277 career average, as are his .366 on base average and .485 slugging average.
His 131 OPS+ only ranks fourth, trailing Tatis, Turner and Crawford. He ranks as high as he does due to the strength of his WAR, which at 7.3 was the year’s best, not merely among shortstops but generally.
He accomplished that by the simple process of playing a superb all-around game. With 148 appearances, he was a reliable presence in the lineup. With 21 Defensive Runs Saved, he was a consistent defensive performer.
His only real drawback entering free agency is his seeming disinterest in the baserunning game. Correa has attempted just seven stolen bases since 017, none at all since 2019.
![Yordan Alvarez. Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/cbd10c3df196e6067b6ef80f1248013fd14d446f0da8bd89e9d7bd61232f3178.jpg)
14. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
2021 salary: $809,000
2021 value: 13.577 million
Difference: $12.768 million
In terms of cost versus value received, Alvarez was simply the most desirable player to have on your side in 2021. The $13.577 million he returned in on-field contribution to his team’s cause was a hair under 17 times the relative pittance paid by the Astros for all that production.
In only his third season – and his first full one – Alvarez is a poster child for the union’s case that MLB’s salary system discriminates against younger, more productive players. It does, by the way – just as the same system heavily discriminates in favor of the older players. The union doesn’t tell you that part.
It amounts to mutual advantage-taking, and if he survives in the game long enough Alvarez will almost certainly get more than even. For now, as a pre-arb player, he’ll have to content himself with the knowledge that only two DHs had more productive seasons.
At 136, Alvarez tied Giancarlo Stanton for the third best OPS+ at his position, or, if you prefer, in his grouping. His 3.0 WAR also ranked third behind only Stanton (3.1) and the runaway leader, Shohei Ohtani (4.9).
He did it with 33 home runs, 104 RBIs, and an .877 OPS. To some extent, the numbers were a product of the fact that Alvarez played more than half a season for the first time in his young career.
![Giancarlo Stanton: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/ac79756b7c37a0bae5450b4d72c6da62ac817b6cca2a31a5c7190ac57cb60a84.jpg)
13. Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
2021 salary: $29 million.
2021 value: $13.852 million.
Difference: -$15.148 million.
Financially, the contrast between Stanton and Alvarez is almost enough to get old George Steinbrenner’s heart started again.
From a production standpoint, both had essentially identical seasons. Here are their lines in seven offensive categories
PA HR RBI BA OBA SA OPS
Alvarez 598 33 104 .277 .346 .531 .877
Stanton 579 35 97 .273 .354 .516 .870
Alvarez had 19 more at bats, Stanton hit a couple more home runs, Alvarez drove in seven more runs, they hit about the same and Alvarez had slightly the better of it as a slugger.
The only real difference is the payroll line. That’s the one that shows Stanton at $29 million, a preposterous 36 multiples of what the Astros paid Alvarez. And they each got essentially the same results.
By his personal standards, Stanton at age 31 had an acceptable, if not overpowering, season. He was a bit off his career norms in home runs and RBIs, his batting average was up a few points, his on base and slugging averages slightly tepid.
Still, he measures out as the second best DH in the game, behind only Ohtani. That 3.1 WAR, one-tenth of a tic better than Alvarez, was just good enough to nudge him ahead of the Houston star on this list.
It will escape nobody’s notice that the Yankees overpaid for Stanton’s value by a matter of $15 million plus change. If you’re wondering, that’s not even close to the worst bargain of 2021.
Merely among DHs, the Tigers paid Miguel Cabrera $30 million to produce just $2.4 million worth of on-field value in what has become his baseball dotage.
Injuries also cost Mike Trout and Jacob DeGrom most of their seasons and rendered their $30-plus million contracts functional wastes.
![Paul Goldschmidt. Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/701a1c28a145f965cf362082b6cd1fc35ef75a88b0278932ab0f9e4e8f86e041.jpg)
12. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
2021 salary: $25.333 million.
2021 value: $13.994 million.
Difference: -$11.389 million.
Following a slow 2019 debut in St. Louis, Goldschmidt’s last two seasons have re-established the image of a premier offensive threat at first base that he cultivated so well in Arizona.
It was actually only an average Goldschmidt season, but that’s awfully good: 36 home runs, 99 RBIs, a .294 average, and an .879 OPS.
Among first basemen, Goldschmidt’s 143 OPS+ trails only Guerrero and Olson. His 6.3 WAR is second behind only Guerrero.
If you are a Cardinal fan, the interesting question concerns whether these two most recent very upbeat seasons represent a trend or a peak. Goldschmidt is entering his age 34 season in 2022,a point at which most careers begin to trend downward. The Cardinals have him tied up through 2024, digesting nearly $80 million along the way. For that kind of money, they need the trend argument to prevail.
There’s certainly reason to believe 2019 was an outlier. Measured by OPS+, Goldschmidt has annually landed between 133 and 160 with the sole exception of that one down season.
His 2020 and 2021 seasons are, even if marginally, his two best since 2015, when he was a young buck of 27.
![Manny Machado. Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/359d50aa641f22f4205cb09f83ebcbade7b984e69c14e0d1d1549fdfdfce4c27.jpg)
11. Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
2021 salary: $32 million.
2021 value: $14.227 million
Difference: -$17.773 million
Purely in terms of strength at the top, two positions dominate in the current game. Six of the 11 most valuable players and five of the top six based on 2021 performance play either third base or right field.
So despite the exceptionality of Machado’s 2021, it is true that he remains only the third most valuable third baseman for on-field contributions.
Machado’s 2021 season was pretty much in keeping with his historical norms, which is to say very good. That the Padres collapsed in August and September was not attributable to any shortcoming on Machado’s part. He batted .297 with five home runs, 20 RBIs and an .859 OPS, each of those among the best monthly totals of his season.
His 131 OPS+ was only the position’s fourth best, trailing Boston’s Rafael Devers by a point. He more than offset that with a solid 5.1 WAR. That was his best WAR production since 2016, when Machado was still considered the star of a plausible Oriole post-season contender..
The Padres have a long-term interest in Machado, having signed him to a deal that will pay $32 million annually through 2028. Happily, Machado – who will still be in his 20s next season – will only be 35 by then.
![Fernando Tatis Jr. Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/85699916365b7e25ee3404e58bb424c850739819360bf52a1d264a38a0d57dda.jpg)
10. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
2021 salary: $1.714 million.
2021 value: $13.811 million.
Difference: $12.097 million.
In 2021, Tatis was not only baseball’s most valuable shortstop, he was also the position’s biggest bargain. His production exceeded his salary by more than $12 million. Only the previously heralded Alvarez plus four guys we’ve yet to deal with generated greater excess value for dollar paid.
The fun part is pondering how much higher Tatis might have risen on this list had he not missed more than 30 games with various nuisance injuries. WAR, one of the two measurements by which position players are judged, is a volume stat. That means all those games Tatis missed amounted to a penalty.
Even so, his 6.5 WAR trailed only Correa and tied Turner as the position’s second best.
Tatis’ major positional edge was his 166 OPS+, the position’s best by 20 points and the fourth best in all of MLB. Presto, Tatis left Turner in the dust and soared past Correa to the top of the shortstop ranks.
What’s the statistical profile of a top-of-the-list shortstop? In the case of Tatis, it includes a league-leading 42 home runs, 97 RBIs, and a .611 slugging average.
The downside of Tatis’ season involved some ordinary defensive numbers, in part prompting all that discussion about moving him to center or right field. He played 27 games in one of those two spots – unimpressively, if you must know.
Like Machado, the Padres are into Tatis for the long-term…make that very long-term. He’s signed for seven figures in 2022 and 2023, rising to $11.7 million in 2024 and then into the $20 millions, eventually climbing to $36.7 million by 2034.
![Vlad Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays/Handout Photo via USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/2d836eacbe42984bf9445e0e117b270dbcb0077a6a04542651557bc2df72b4c0.jpg)
9. Vlad Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
2021 salary: $605,000.
2021 value: $15.501 million.
Difference: $14.896 million.
If Shohei Ohtani were something other than a ballplayer, Guerrero would be the favorite to win the American League Most Valuable Player award. This analysis doesn’t portray him quite that favorably, but he had a heck of a season.
Guerrero led the American League in some impressive categories, among them home runs (48) and runs scored (123). He was the only AL player to top .400 in on base average or .600 in slugging average, and also the only one with an OPS surpassing 1.000.
Not surprisingly, his 169 OPS+ ranked first among first basemen and second overall. His 6.8 WAR was also superior at his position.
Why, given all that, doesn’t Guerrero rank higher on this list? The answer to that question lies in the higher expectations the game places on third basemen and right fielders, both positions being generally more valued.
On average, third basemen were paid $8.090 in 2021, the highest salary for any position save designated hitter. As a group, right fielders ranked right behind them at $7.863 million. While first basemen hardly qualified for welfare, their $7.421 million average salary did not quite measure up.
And since value, in its pure dollars-and-cents sense, is inextricably linked to salary, the “value” of each of their performances suffered by comparison
![Austin Riley. John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/51f76dc565c5c84ee74f4c5765260b055855cf7ff786c7fc3d6861d01a92ca94.jpg)
8. Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
2021 salary: $591,000.
2021 value: $16.091 million
Difference: $15.466 million.
We now arrive at the first of three successive ratings that probably qualify as the list’s biggest surprises. Although Riley became something of a post-season hero, his 2021 season simply did not get the respect it should have engendered. Time to rectify that.
Riley hit 33 home runs, and drove in 107 runs. In the modern statistical age, we don’t talk much about RBIs, but that’s an impressive total. He had a .303 average, a .367 on base average and an .898 OPS.
Beyond that, Riley did the simplest thing superbly: he showed up. He played in 160 games, tied with teammate Dansby Swanson at number one among National League players.
The National League leader boards recognize what Riley did. He was eighth in WAR (6.1), sixth in average, ninth in slugging, fifth in plate appearances, third in hits, second in total bases, and second in RBIs.
Only one major league third baseman ranked ahead of Riley in either WAR or OPS+ (132), explaining his No. 2 rank among third basemen overall.
Of course what really stands out is the final number: the increment between what Riley received in salary and his dollars-and-cents value. Most successful teams rise because they roster one or two youngsters who are multiple times more valuable to their team than their pay justifies. That kind of marginal value gives teams the flexibility to overpay for players with more longevity and more reputation, even if they are not truly more valuable.
At $15.466 million in incremental value, Riley is decidedly one of those guys.
![Tyler O’Neill. Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/2c8a0381592296179a2c2c5c9258b69717ad362f08da0e10f5bff677ec89cfd0.jpg)
7. Tyler O’Neill, St. Louis Cardinals
2021 salary: $595,000
2021 value: $16.146 million
Difference: $15.551 million
In and around St. Louis, O’Neill is probably best known for his body builders physique. In 2021, he put those muscles to good use on the field.
O’Neill’s 34 home runs and 80 RBIs, in company with his .912 OPS, contributed to his position-best 150 OPS+.
Only six players in all of MLB bettered 150 in 2021, and all six join O’Neill on this list.
On top of that, he also was a runaway leader in positional WAR, his 6.4 being nearly two full points better than Joey Gallo’s 4.5 WAR for the Rangers and Yankees.
In combination, those numbers translated to more than $4.3 million of on-field value separating O’Neill from his closest left field competitor, Gallo. Other than Shohei Ohtani’s utter mastery of the DH position, that was the largest positional superiority in 2021.
In fact there was a larger dollar-value separation between O’Neill and Gallo than there was between Gallo and Robby Grossman, the guy back in ninth place at the position.
As a bonus, O’Neill also contributed 12 Defensive Runs Saved – that’s basically one full game – to the Cardinals’ NL Central chase of Milwaukee and eventual wild card placement. You don’t expect defensive value from a left fielder, but O’Neill did give it.
![Kyle Tucker. Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/545103d4c795df3ddcb284bcee841984b73c347b002ade98a87478e58106636f.jpg)
6. Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
2021 salary: $624,000.
2021 value: $16.163 million.
Difference: $15.539 million.
Tucker was to the Astros everything that Austin Riley was to the Braves, except slightly better and at a slightly more valuable position.
Thus, despite being only the game’s fourth most valuable right fielder, he ranks as the sixth most valuable player overall.
Like Riley, Tucker operated mostly in the shadows of Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve in Houston, right up to and through the World Series. The reality is that he, not any of them, was the team’s Most Valuable Astro.
His 30 homeruns trailed only Alvarez (33) and Altuve (31). Only Alvarez (104) had more RBIs than Tucker’s 92. He hit .294, third behind Gurriel and Michael Brantley, with a .557 slugging average and .917 OPS, both first on the team.
His 147 OPS+ was also tops, and only Correa (7.3) had a better WAR than Tucker’s 5.7.
As with Riley at third, there’s also that bonus of incremental value above and beyond what the player was actually paid. Looking only at the five most valuable right fielders in 2021 – Soto, Harper, Judge, Tucker and Betts – the average salary was just under $16 million. Tucker cost less than one-twentieth of that amount to put on the field.
In all of baseball, only Ohtani produced a greater incremental value to his team than did Tucker at a $15.539 million profit to the Astros.
![Aaron Judge. Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/23c7b9469e91f689d62b53dd05e0051c44a1b55d130de9efbd01d03cb580bd88.jpg)
5. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
2021 salary: $10.175 million.
2021 value: $16.619 million
Difference: $6.444 million.
It’s challenging to think of Judge as a bargain. The guy, after all, is among the most hyped players competing for the most hyped team in the most hyped city.
But as only as second year arbitration-eligible in 2021, Judge is one of the “victims” – if that isn’t too strong a word — of the game’s salary structure, which systematically under-values young players while simultaneously over-valuing older players.
Judge will certainly get his, probably as soon as 2022. For now, however, the Yankees are getting a bargain.
No matter what he’s paid, Judge merits his status as the game’s third best right fielder and among the five most valuable. He hit 39 home runs and drove in 98 runs with a .916 OPS, all important components of his 149 OPS+.
That stood him third at his position and eighth in the majors in OPS+.
His 5.9 WAR matched Harper as the second-highest total among the game’s right fielders, behind only Juan Soto.
That his Yankees failed to live up to expectations was no fault of Judge. He led the club in home runs, runs scored, doubles, walks, batting average, on base average and slugging.
![Jose Ramirez. Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/ee802fde1b1ae684f7ac8699396c693790f23fb68101df2eb557c22b7eefb8d0.jpg)
4. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
2021 salary: $9.4 million
2021 value: $17.481 million.
Difference: $8.081 million.
When results of the 2021 Most Valuable Player voting are announced later this week, Ramirez will be ignored. Ohtani, Guerrero and Marcus Semien have been named the three American League finalists.
From a standpoint of pure on-field production, Ramirez had a more valuable season than two of those three…and did so at a position that values production more dearly. The problem, obviously, is that he did it for a non-competitive team in a lower-profile city.
Let’s begin with what Ramirez actually did. He hit 36 home runs, drove in 103 runs, and his .893 OPS translated to a 141 OPS+.
That OPS+ was the best at his ultra-competitive position, and far superior to any other American League third baseman. The runner up was Chicago’s Yoan Moncada at 114.
His 6.7 WAR was also the position’s best, again lapping Moncada’s runner-up total of 4.0.
Ramirez’s status is clearly boosted by the fact that he plays a premium position. Toronto second baseman Marcus Semien had a higher WAR (7.2) and a competitive 133 OPS+, both the best at his position. Yet because second basemen are not generally viewed as valuable on the market – the position’s average salary is just $4.274 million – Semien’s measured value comes up a few dollars short of $10 million.
It makes a difference what position you play.
![Bryce Harper. Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/f2de558268f4b3abe3c924ad5d795f4068190a31767ae1b96a193218aa3666ab.jpg)
3. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
2021 salary: $27.538 million
2021 value: $17.672 million
Difference: -$9.866 million
The Phillies didn’t tie up Harper for all those years just to produce on the field. There was never a chance that he would generate even $25 million worth of on-field value to his team. They signed him to produce what he did for them in 2021 plus sell tickets, jerseys and other Phillies-related stuff.
In that sense, Phillies management is more than satisfied with the return on investment it received from Harper.
Make no mistake, the on-field contribution was awfully strong. Harper led the team in most offensive categories of significance: plate appearances (599), hits (151), doubles (42), home runs (35), RBIs (84), walks (100), all three slash line numbers (.309/.429/.615) and total bases.
At 1.044, he led not only the position and his team but all of MLB in both OPS and Adjusted OPS+ (179). That’s noteworthy because seven right fielders registered an OPS+ in excess of 135 in 2021. It was a deep position and Harper led them all.
He falls to second in overall value at the position because Soto, his divisional rival, won their personal statistical duel. As we will illustrate shortly, that was a battle of the titans.
![Juan Soto. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/cf84877fdda177d13633ca4968f338b12eb4414e86030d06900f6ad47d00f272.jpg)
2. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
2021 salary: $8.5 million
2021 value: $19.655 million
Difference: $11.155 million
Both the comparison between Soto and Harper, the superb level of their play and the fact that they emerge as the two principal contenders for NL MVP this week makes a deeper examination of their differences desirable.
Let’s begin with a statistical side-by-side.
PA HR RBI Slash OPS+ WAR DRS
Harper 599 35 84 .309/.429/.615 179 5.9 -6
Soto 654 29 95 .313/.465/.534 175 7.0 3
Plainly these two players merit consideration for National League accolades. The side-by-side illustrates that Soto’s principal advantage lay in his superior WAR, which probably reflects some measure of defensive superiority as well as a superior ability to get on base.
Conversely, Harper’s power edge advantages him in OPS+, although not by much.
In fact the data places great weight on that 7.0 WAR of Soto’s, more than a point better than Harper’s 5.9. In fact, the 1.1 point gap between the WARS of Soto and Harper was greater than the gap between Harper and the guy back in fourth place in the position, Kyle Tucker.
By contrast, while Harper led the third-ranking right fielder (Acuna) in OPS+ by 25 points, he only led Soto, the runner-up, by four. So Soto hung with Harper in the category Harper dominated, but Harper did not hang with Soto in the category Soto dominated.
Bottom line: If I had a vote for NL Most Valuable Player, I’d say the data supports giving it to Juan Soto.
![Shohei Ohtani. Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/7eec0c8bf54f1c864f78922ba6ffd83a54e515ffebe3ebf704fee625f64747da.jpg)
1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
2021 salary: $3 million.
2021 value: $27.289 million.
Difference: $24.289 million.
Considering Ohtani purely as a designated hitter, he was the Most Valuable Player in baseball in 2021, although not by a lot. His 158 OPS+ and 4.9 WAR – both the best among primary DHs – translated to $19.661 million in value, making him about $6,000 more valuable to his team than Soto was to the Nationals.
It’s when you factor in Ohtani’s pitching contributions that his numbers make a run for the stratosphere. The system grades pitchers by four measurements: ERA, innings, ERA+ and WAR. Among pitchers who made at least 20 starts, Ohtani ranked 23rd in ERA and just 78th in innings, but 15th in ERA+ and 20th in WAR.
That combination placed him as the game’s 27th most valuable starter with a dollar value of $7.628 million.
That’s not in a league with the mound’s best – Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer and Brandon Woodruff – but in tandem with his value as a hitter, it raises his overall value to $27.289 million.
Next. Top 25 free agents this offseason. dark
Put another way, Ohtani was $7.634 million more valuable than Soto, who deserves to be the NL Most Valuable Player. Put a third and more eye-opening way, the value gap between Ohtani and Soto is greater than the gap between Soto and Royals catcher Salvador Perez, whose $12.207 million value stands him 25th most valuable in baseball.