The Cy Young award: 2021’s most valuable pitchers
The Cy Young award winners will be announced Wednesday. Who should win?
There are three finalists in each league: The AL Cy Young finalists are Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays, and Lance Lynn of the White Sox.
The National League Cy Young finalists are Max Scherzer of the Nationals/Dodgers, Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers.
Who deserves to win the Cy Young award?
Because voters apply their own individual criteria, the award is subjective. That means the most deserving candidate doesn’t always emerge on top. For that same reason, it’s not even a certainty that the most deserving candidates reached the finalist stage.
But it is possible to construct an objective system for rating each of the candidates. This objective system rates nearly 350 pitchers in four categories – ERA, workload, ERA+ and WAR – based on the nature of their work, their salaries and the average salary for their group. There are three groupings: pitchers who made 20 or more starts, pitchers who saved 10 or more games, and all other pitchers with at least 50 innings.
As a general proposition, Cy Young voters did a pretty good job of selecting their 2021 finalists. Of the six announced finalists, all but one ranked among the three most valuable pitchers in their league.
The only exception was Burnes, whose $9.341 million on-field value only ranked him fifth among National League pitchers. Walker Buehler of the Dodgers and fellow Brewer Brandon Woodruff both ranked ahead of Burnes.
But in fairness to the voters, the decision regarding National League finalists was a particularly tight one.
Here are the actual on-field values of the three AL Cy Young Award finalists.
AL Cy Young
Pitcher, team 2021 value
Robbie Rays, Tor $10.273 million
Gerrit Cole, NYY $ 9.257 million
Lance Lynn, CWS $ 8.972 million
And here are the on-field values of the three National League finalists, plus two others who also merited consideration. An asterisk indicates pitchers who were NOT finalists.
NL Cy Young
Pitcher, team 2021 value
Zack Wheeler, Phi $11.071 million
Walker Buehler*, LA $10.459 million
Max Scherzer, Was/LA $ 9.634 million
Brandon Woodruff*, Mil. $ 9.450 million
Corbin Burnes, Mil. $ 9.341 million
At 2.84, Ray ranked behind Lynn (2.69) but ahead of Cole (3.23) in ERA. But he led all American League picthers in innings pitched (193), Cole at 181 and Lynn at just 157.
Lynn’s 161 ERA+ gave him an advantage in that category, but it was only a slight one over Ray (154) with Cole back at 133. In WAR, Ray’s 6.7 stood out. Cole was a full point back at 5.7, Lynn at 5.4.
The National League race is substantially less clear, at least in terms of who ought to win. Wheeler emerges ahead largely due to his significant advantage in workload. He led all MLB pitchers with 213 innings, 34 more than Scherzer and 46 more than Burnes.
For the record, Buehler ranked second in innings with 207, that number going a long way to explain his status as the game’s second most valuable pitcher in 2021. Save for Shohei Ohtani, pitchers only have value when they pitch.
Wheeler’s weak point was earned run average. Still, at 2.78 he ranked eighth among those who started at least 20 games. Burnes (2.43) led National League starters in that category, with Scherzer (2.46) right behind him.
Burnes also led in ERA+ at 176, with Scherzer (166) second. Wheeler (150) trailed that pair plus Woodruff (166), Buehler (165), Miami’s Trevor Rogers (158), and Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta (152).
But largely due to his superior workload, Wheeler also led in WAR, a cumulative stat. His 7.6 WAR was nearly a full point better than Buehler (6.7), with Scherzer (6.0), Woodruff (5.7), and Burnes (5.6) trailing.
The bottom line is that while Wheeler deserves the award, the contest is close enough to justify an outcome in favor of any of the three finalists.
dark. Next. Who deserves to be Rookie of the Year?
In the American League, there ought to be no such ambiguity. Ray, with an onfield value that is a full $1 million more than any other pitcher, is the deserving winner.