The state of the MLB game: What $300 million gets you
Prior to the potential expiration of the MLB collective bargaining agreement on December 1, there was a fair amount of comment on the “energy” in this year’s offseason. Players were being signed right and left, for lots of money, and not necessarily by the usual deep-pocket teams. By now, you likely know about the real eye-opening signings – Max Scherzer by the New York Mets, Corey Seager by the Texas Rangers, and so-forth. Seager’s signing was “only” the ninth MLB contract signed worth more than $300 million.
But another was eagerly awaited! Carlos Correa would surely break some team’s bank before the CBA expired, wouldn’t he?
If that were to happen at any point before New Year’s Day, Correa’s contract would become the fourth MLB document spit out of a laser printer in the current calendar year worth at least $300 million. This would raise the total number of such documents by 67 percent inside of 365 days.
The MLB offseason could produce an explosion of players making $300 million. Is this good?
If he doesn’t sign for that by then, or if his contract is signed in 2022, that increase will stay at a paltry 50 percent for this year. It says here, however, that Correa will likely get his $300 million promise sooner or later.
In the early morning hours of December 1, Correa’s destination and pay remained a mystery. Perhaps owners paused in dishing out $300 million to guys playing only one position on the field because any news on the CBA negotiations was also missing.
“Guys, if we have to lock them out, and then, we have another short season like in ’20, what gives? You can’t sell caps and shirts and beer if the ballpark’s closed.”
So, while MLB is paused, maybe there’s an opportunity to ask just exactly what you get for 300 million Washingtons if you promise that much money to one, young professional baseball player. After all, we do have some results for such deals.
In fact, we have 22 player-seasons in the MLB books played by individuals under contract for multiple years and at least $300 million in total remuneration. Nearly one-third of those seasons belong to the Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton, who originally made his big deal with the Marlins back in November of 2014.
His 13-year contract for $325 million still has six years to go. What has he done for his average $25 million salary a year? And what have the other eight guys done for their lucrative contracts thus far? No wait, make that seven – Seager hasn’t played under his contract with Texas yet (10 years, $325 million).
Taking a look at the performance of Giancarlo Stanton
It’s slipping into the mists of the history now, but the first $300 million contract, Giancarlo Stanton’s, produced an MVP season. To the eternal annoyance of Yankees fans, those following the player’s current team, Stanton won that award in a Marlins uniform in 2017, his third year under the big deal.
The outfielder also won a Silver Slugger award in 2017. However, aside from a few MVP votes with the Yankees in 2018, when he drove in 100 runs, Stanton has won no Silver Sluggers, no Gold Gloves, and has not finished in the top five in the MVP vote in the four seasons since his MVP year.
Does this amount to six years of $150 million wasted by the Fish and Bombers? I suppose that depends on what you want to see from your highly paid MLB stars. What matters to you? Where your team finishes or what your most expensive star does?
Stanton’s performance suggests that giving 300 million clams to one player will put your team in contention, but you may never get past the league championship series. Stanton’s 2019 Yankees lost to the Astros in the ALCS.
Moreover, if your locker room isn’t in Yankee Stadium, your team may finish no better than second, as Stanton’s 77-85 Marlins did in his MVP season.
However, those baseball fans who live for the big moment must have had some fun in Miami in that season, when Stanton mashed 59 homers and drove in 132 runs, both MLB-leading figures. Likewise, Yankee fans must have been pretty tingly when the slugger lost six baseballs in fair territory and drove in 13 runs in the COVID postseason, even if they were watching on TV.
To put all this another way, Giancarlo Stanton’s experience after signing his blockbuster contract suggests that dishing out tons of cash to even a supremely talented player doesn’t change the fact that baseball is a team sport.
Is there anything discoverable about the seven other players who have thus far played after signing for $300 million or more that undercuts this suggestion?
Taking a look at “the overpaid others” in MLB
First, it has to be recognized that none of the other players with contracts touching $300 million minimally has played as much as Stanton after signing their deals. This is the question, though: What happens after the signing?
The other seven players who have played under $300 million contracts are Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Francisco Lindor. Trout, Harper, and Machado have played three seasons apiece under their big deals, while Lindor has played only one.
Undoubtedly, all of these players have, since signing their contracts, produced for their fans big moments or even extended moments like Stanton’s home run barrage in the 2020 postseason. Consider Harper’s last several weeks in the season just passed, when he hauled his eternally flawed Phillies to their first winning season in a decade, but couldn’t quite drag them into the postseason.
Yes, we are back at the season-long honors and postseason performances.
Harper’s season-ending push produced one of the three MVP awards won after signing. Trout has the third (2019). Like Stanton’s hardware, Harper’s award was won in his third year after signing. Trout’s was won in the year he signed.
Additionally, there have been four more top-five MVP finishes after signing among these seven, and the lone pitcher, Cole, has two top-five Cy Young finishes.
Since signing their big deals, Trout has won two Silver Slugger awards, and Betts, Tatis, Harper, and Machado have all won one apiece. Betts has won a Gold Glove.
So, in terms of individual talent, these guys were not wildly misjudged, a low bar for spending $300 million or more, of course.
How about these players’ effects on their teams’ postseason fates, however?
Only one of these players’ 15 seasons under the big contracts ended with a world championship as Mookie Betts’ Dodgers won the big prize in 2020 (he came in second in the MVP vote as well). Betts’ two appearances in an LCS in 2020 and 2021 can, then, be added to Stanton’s singular LCS appearance.
Next. Breaking down the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. dark
So, that’s three LCS appearances and one World Series title for your 22 player-seasons after the Men Worth $300 Million signed their big contracts. Time will tell if the figure is too much of a reach, but it appears to be just that now, since you might expect grand results, even grand team results, shortly after you agree to pay the big money. You know, when the expensive stars are in their primes.