Harper, Machado, and more: Reassessing the 2018-19 MLB free agents

Given the MLB lockout, it may not seem like it, but we’re dead in the middle of the winter free agent signing season.

It is a time of year filled with faith and hope, not to mention plenty of money. Already this offseason, teams have committed $1.7 billion to the signing of available free agent talent in the hope that talent will produce a contender.

But it is also a season filled with peril. Despite the best intentions of players and team execs alike, history tells us that not all free agent signings will look as rosy one or two years from now as they did at the time the deals were agreed to.

Sometimes injuries interfere. In other cases, the problem is that reality comes up short of expectations. The player simply turns out not to be as good as he or the team expected.

On a few occasions, too, the player’s performance justifies the investment, but the weight of the contract hamstrings his team to the degree that it cannot surround him with talent.

There is no better illustration of this potential problem than the Detroit Tigers’ signing of Miguel Cabrera to an eight-year, $248 million free agent deal prior to the 2014 season. Cabrera, who was 33 when the deal took effect, has delivered a series of credible seasons for a player in his age category, averaging .256 with 94 home runs and 359 RBI.

But that contract, which works out to about $30 million per season, has hamstrung the maneuvering to the small-market Tigers. Last year, Cabrera’s deal ate up fully 37.5 percent of the team’s entire player payroll.

And no, the Tigers aren’t cheap. Last year, they committed about 57 percent of revenues to player payroll, probably the highest percentage of any major league team.

To judge how frequently free agent deals work out, all we need to do is hop back to the winter of 2018-19. It was a turbulent free agent signing period, consumed by negotiations over some of the game’s biggest stars.

Here’s an assessment of the 10 most costly free agent deals signed that winter and how those deals worked out.

Examining the contract: Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies, 13 years, $330 million

Harper Is not yet 30 and the Phillies have him for another decade, so our judgment of this deal – and a few others – is an interim one.

Still it’s fair to say that three years provides enough of a basis to make a reasonable assessment.

Harper was the 2021 Most Valuable Player, which in and of itself makes the contract look mighty good. He combined a league-leading .615 slugging average with a 1.044 OPS in just short of 600 plate appearances.

The Phillies would take that any time.

How would they feel about a .265 average? That’s what Harper produced in his first two seasons, although again in fairness to him he combined it with OPS marks of .882 and .962, both totally acceptable for a franchise linchpin.

On the other hand, the Phillies have been a .500 team with Harper, who has yet to kick his club home within five games of a divisional title. They missed a Wild Card berth by six games this year.

Presumably some part of that $330 million involves leading a team during the crucial portions of a pennant race. True, Harper batted .320 after September 1 last season, but his club played 14-16 ball and fell out of contention.

In three pivotal late-season games with the Braves, Harper was hitless in seven at-bats and the Phillies lost all three.

So while it’s hard to argue with Harper’s individual performance, it has not yet translated to team success, which is, after all the true bottom line. At $33 million per year, yes, it is at least somewhat up to him to make that happen.

Examining the contract: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres, 10 years, $300 million

The assessment of Machado’s deal roughly parallels the assessment of Harper’s. They signed at about the same time, Machado for three fewer seasons and a bit less per season, and both were expected to transform their new clubs into perennial contenders.

Both, too, have delivered totally legitimate individual performances. But both have also failed to produce the expected team benefits.

In Machado’s case, the numbers include a .273 average, 76 home runs, 238 RBI, and about an .850 OPS. That may not sound like $30 million per year worth of value, but it’s basically what he did in Baltimore.

Unlike Harper’s failure to kick his Phillies into postseason play, Machado’s Padres actually made it in 2020. But that was a byproduct of the COVID-shortened season.

Also as with Harper, Machado’s performance down the stretch was not – directly at least – responsible for his team’s collapse. While the Padres went 7-21 after September 1 to fall out of contention, Machado batted .300.

At the same time, the Padres managed only a 4-12 record against the Giants and Dodgers after September 1,  and Machado produced a lukewarm 14-of-56 – that’s a .286 average – in those 16 games.

In short, Machado’s first three seasons have produced acceptable individual numbers. But either Machado or the Padres or both have as yet failed to meld that into team success.

Examining the contract: Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals, six seasons, $140 million

Corbin was easily the hot free agent pitching figure coming out of 2018. He parlayed a 56-54 career record and 3.91 ERA over six seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks into that nine-figure deal with the Nationals.

I have a personal theory regarding free agency, which is that any deal is worthwhile if you win the World Series. By that standard, Washington’s signing of Corbin was a success.

In 2019, he was 14-7 for Washington, which survived a Wild Card race plus three playoff rounds to defeat the Houston Astros in a seven-game World Series.

Corbin was only 2-3 in that postseason, but that included a Game 7 victory in three innings of relief of Max Scherzer.

Since then, Corbin’s efforts have been less successful. He was 2-7 during the short 2020 season, and 9-16 in 2021. The Nats may have finished last this season, but Corbin’s bad record was legit, at least judging by his 5.82 ERA.

His strikeout rate fell way off, from 10.6 per nine innings in 2019 to 7.5 in 2021.

The Nats still owe Corbin $82 million through 2024, so they need a big return to form. On the other hand, and as noted earlier, World Series championships are worth any price, and Corbin contributed to one.

In a sense, that means his contract summons thoughts of one of the famous lines from the movie Casablanca: “We’ll always have Paris.” No matter what Corbin does through 2024, the Nats will always have 2019.

Examining the contract: Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox, four years, $67.5 million

Eovaldi was a hero of Boston’s 2018 World Series run, making his winter resigning almost a mandatory occasion.

But signing pitchers to extended deals is always problematic, and that has certainly been the case with Eovaldi. Elbow problems limited him to just four starts in 2019, and COVID limited him (and everybody else) in 2020.

In combination, that means the Red Sox have received fewer than 17 victories and 300 innings of labor in exchange for the roughly $50 million they’ve paid Eovaldi to date.

His 2021 season did amount to a return to expected form. He was 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA in a solid 32 starts, and was a major reason why the Red Sox qualified as a wild card team.

He started and won the Wild Card game against New York, but got shelled by Houston in both games two and six as the Red Sox lost the ALCS to the Astros.

Entering 2022, Eovaldi appears to be healthy, which means he’ll probably be his team’s No. 1 or No. 2 starter – depending on Chris Sale’s health – starting the season.

Eovaldi will be a free agent at season’s end. That means he and the Red Sox need to win – as in the World Series – in order to make his deal a clear positive for the team at day’s end.

That in turn means not only a solid regular season, but a better postseason than Eovaldi delivered in 2021.

Examining the contract: A.J. Pollock, Los Angeles Dodgers, four years, $55 million

In retrospect, it’s a fair question why the Dodgers gave Pollock four years and $55 million. With the Diamondbacks, his previous employer, he was a .281 hitter with 15-to 20-homer power. That made him a nice complementary piece, but hardly a star.

Through three seasons in L.A., that’s almost exactly what he’s been: a .282 hitter averaging 17 home runs.

Pollock was a three-win player, as measured by WAR, in 2021, statistically his best season since 2015.

On the stacked Dodger roster, his 3.1 WAR ranked eighth-best.

If you’re a Dodger free agent, you’re probably being paid mostly for your postseason play. With respect to Pollock, that criteria is spotty at best.

He had a great 2021 NLCS, with eight hits in 21 at-bats, a .381 average, two home runs, and seven RBI.

He delivered a key hit in the eighth inning of L.A.’s Game 3 victory, and drove in four runs in his team’s Game 5 win.

Aside from the 2021 NLCS, however, Pollock’s postseason contributions have been modest at best. He’s 15-for-84 (.179) with no homers and four RBI in seven previous postseason series with L.A., including .220, 0 homers, and a pair of RBI in the Dodgers’ 2020 World Series run. It’s pretty safe to say the Dodgers won the 2020 postseason despite Pollock, not because of him.

Examining the contract: Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies, three years, $50 million

The $50 million the Phillies gave McCutchen seemed like chump change compared with the $330 million they gave Harper. But it was still the sixth-biggest free agent contract that winter. What did Philly get for its money?

They got an average outfielder, that’s what. McCutchen batted .236 in his time with the Phillies, topping out at 27 home runs and 80 RBI in 2021. That sounds good, but his .778 OPS ranked 78th among rate-stat qualifiers, on a level with Miguel Sano, who nobody thinks had a good year.

As with his teammate Harper – and perhaps even moreso given McCutchen’s senior status – it’s also fair to point out that the big-dollar investment brought his team no particular success. McCutchen averaged about 1.4 WAR in Philadelphia, a barely negligible contribution to a team that came up short.

He has also become a fielding liability. As measured by Defensive Runs Saved, McCutchen’s last two seasons have been the two worst of his career.

That’s probably why the Phillies gave McCutchen $3 million this November to go away, buying out their option on a potential fourth year.

Whether he finds another team willing to take a chance on a 35-year-old free agent outfielder, and probably a part-time one, will have to await the resumption of free agent negotiations following the conclusion of the lockout.

Examining the contract: Craig Kimbrel, Chicago Cubs, three years, $42 million

Kimbrel famously held out, then held out some more, then finally signed with the Cubs halfway through the 2019 season.

With the Cubs at the time trying to shore up a four-time postseason string, the signing arguably made sense … until Kimbrel actually threw a pitch. In 21 innings, he ran up a 6.53 ERA and 0-4 record. He did compile 13 saves, a fact that tells you all you need to know about the meaninglessness of the save stat.

The 2020 season was not much better: a 5.28 ERA, an 0-1 record, and two saves.

Kimbrel was much better in 2021 – a 0.49 ERA and 23 saves. But the Cubs weren’t, so, like all his veteran teammates, he went bye-bye at the trade deadline. Shipped across town to the South Side, he fell into a non-save role, and ran up a 5.09 ERA.

That, in turn, prompted all the supposed experts to nod knowingly about the dangers of using a closer in a non-closer role … as if Kimbrel himself wasn’t responsible for what he did.

What, then, did the Cubs get for their $42 million? They got half a really good season, and it happened to be the most meaningless half season of Kimbrel’s three-year contract. During the 2019 and 2020 seasons when the Cubs could have used a Kimbrel-level closer, he came up small.

Examining the contract: Zack Britton, New York Yankees, three years, $39 million

Britton came to the 2018-19 free agent market with a stellar career in the Baltimore bullpen. It included a 30-22 record, 139 saves, and a 3.22 ERA.

The Yankees, seeking to further deepen a bullpen that already had Aroldis Chapman, had traded for Britton during the 2018 season. Intrigued by his 2.88 ERA in 25 appearances, they proceeded to outbid the field for Britton, who was, at the time, considered the best of the free agent bullpen class. They did that despite having no expressed intention to use Britton in the closer’s role.

We’re still in the process of determining ways to evaluate relievers who are not closers. The best indicators are probably ERA, ERA+, and WHIP.

By those measures, Britton produced two excellent seasons for the Yankees and one bad one. In 2019 and 2020, Britton worked 80 innings with a 1.90 ERA, and WHIPs around 1.1.

Britton’s 2021 season was another story altogether. In 22 appearances totaling just 18 innings, his ERA soared to 5.89. Injuries played a role; he did not pitch at all in September, and underwent reconstructive elbow surgery.

That’s bad news for the Yanks, who were already on the hook for $14 million in 2022, having previously picked up a club option on the reliever. That’s an object lesson; never, ever, pick up an option on a pitcher before you absolutely must.

Examining the contract: Michael Brantley, Houston Astros, two years, $32 million

Of all the major free agents three winters ago, probably none delivered so substantially on his contract as did Brantley.

Signed for two years, Brantley topped .300 both seasons, with an .875 and .840 OPS and a 90-RBI season in 2019.

In the 2019 postseason, Brantley produced 20 hits in 70 at-bats. That included a .321 World Series, which the Astros memorably lost to the Nationals in seven games.

One postseason later, Houston went out in seven games to Tampa Bay and, again, Brantley was decidedly not the reason. He produced a .346 postseason and identical .346 ALCS.

The Astros were satisfied enough to give Brantley a two-year, $32 million deal to stay through 2022.

In 2021, Brantley made a legit run at the batting title, finishing at .311, second to his teammate, Yuli Gurriel.

Brantley’s performance is one final proof of the reality that purchasing on the free agent market involves a significant portion of finger-crossing. That finger crossing can swing either way.

In the specific case of Brantley, it’s well to keep in mind that just a few years ago Cleveland was only too willing to unload him, seen at the time as an aging, injury-plagued 30-something whose best days were behind him. You can never really be sure.