Philadelphia Phillies: The horror of giving up that MLB draft choice

One of the apparent upshots of sports talk radio, and specifically, discussion of NFL draft choices, is the overly serious valuation of drafted amateur athletes. More specifically, the overvaluation of amateur draft choices has even leaked into the speculative discussion of Major League Baseball team plans, like those of the flawed Philadelphia Phillies. God forbid forgetting that signing this or that player will cost you an MLB draft choice.

This is even more the case when there is a work stoppage in MLB business.

For a team like the Philadelphia Phillies, whose president, Dave Dombrowski, seemingly understands that his team needs good draft choices, this matter is deadly serious. He is trying to balance building a better farm system without wasting the primes of his very good current MLB players, most specifically, current National League MVP Bryce Harper.

Should the Philadelphia Phillies be worrying about their farm or their current roster?

His team needs several players to play in South Philly next spring (or whenever) because his team finished only two games over .500 in 2021. He also cut loose his last left fielder, Andrew McCutchen, so an outfielder is needed to wear red pinstripes and endure the criticism of the very difficult Phillies press and fans.

And here’s where the consideration of an MLB draft choice comes in. Recently, writer Corey Seidman, a very knowledgeable guy, tossed out this observation: “[Nick] Castellanos…would cost the Phillies their second-highest draft pick because he was extended and rejected the qualifying offer from his former team….”

The horror! Losing the “second-highest” MLB draft choice!

This is borderline unfair to Seidman, whose observation was buried in a semi-long think piece about the Phillies and any MLB draft choice they may retain or give up.

But the notion of grabbing up a great hitter as opposed to giving up the “second” MLB draft choice is worth examining.

And for this purpose we need to turn back the clock roughly five years to the point when two Phillies minor leaguers were lighting up the Double-A Eastern League. Their names were Rhys Hoskins and Dylan Cozens, and they became the first Phillies MiLB teammates to hit at least 35 home runs apiece in 45 years.

In 2016, Cozens had hit 40 homers and driven in 125 runs in 134 games, and Hoskins had added 38 bombs and 116 RBI.

Both were honored as MiLB co-players of the year by the Phillies, and the organization’s director of player development, Joe Jordan, declared on the occasion, “It has been a fantastic experience to watch them, and the reward was seeing them develop as players. We couldn’t have drawn it up any better. I think both of them should be a bright part of our future.”

Phillies fans were tingly in the extreme, many hoping for immediate jumps from Reading to South Philly for both young sluggers.

Both the fans and Jordan were only half-right in their excitement. As many know, the following year, Hoskins, a fifth-round draft choice, did join the Phillies late in the season, and immediately blasted 18 home runs in a mere 34 games. He had no homers in his last 16 games, but has become an everyday, valuable hitter in Philadelphia, albeit a streaky one.

However, Cozens, a second-round choice, struggled every year after 2016, finally playing in only 27 games for the Phillies, hitting only one home run, and batting .154 in 2018 and 2019. He is no longer playing professional baseball.

In other words, conserving your draft picks, even when rebuilding your farm system, is about even money to develop a player far worse than both the departing McCutchen and the coveted Castellanos. Dombrowski needs to keep this in mind for the moment after the moment a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.

There’s no way that drafted player could be in left field for the Phillies in 2022.