As it currently stands, just 16 Hall of Fame ballots have been released to the public. As the announcement for the Hall of Fame will take place on January 22, and there are nearly 400 ballots that will be cast this year, it is far too early to project much when it comes to the vote.
But there are already trends that are emerging, via Ryan Thibodaux’s Baseball Hall of Fame Vote Tracker site. The official results may be a long way off, but there are several trends that could be extrapolated from the results that we currently have.
A look at the early Hall of Fame voting data
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will be close. It would make sense for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens to be inducted at the same time. Both are currently at 75% of the vote, making it possible that they will find their way in on their final ballot. After getting over 60% last year, they are going to be close to that magical 75% threshold this year.
Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel losing support. Both Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel are going to have an uphill battle to be inducted. Schilling’s post career antics, and his tantrum over not being inducted last year, have already caused him to lose three votes. Vizquel has been accused of domestic abuse and sexual harassment, leading to his also losing three votes. Vizquel has more time to make up ground since Schilling is on his final ballot, but at this point, neither appear to be getting the call.
Scott Rolen should eventually be inducted. Scott Rolen is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Schilling and Vizquel. Unlike that duo, his candidacy is gaining traction, as he has already gained two votes. He still has a long way to go before he is inducted, but with five more years on the ballot, it seems inevitable that Rolen will be inducted into the Hall of Fame.
None of the first year players are getting in. The 2022 Hall of Fame ballot had some intriguing first time players, highlighted by David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez. It is not surprising that those two lead all first year players in votes, with ten and eight respectively. However, at this point, neither of those players would be inducted this season.
There are still a lot of votes to go. These projections can completely change in another week. However, the early results do have some interesting trends thus far, especially as it pertains to Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens.
The early returns on the Hall of Fame voting results show that a few candidates will be close. However, no one should start writing their speeches yet.