Why the Javier Baez signing could be a mistake for the Detroit Tigers
On December 1, the Detroit Tigers signed Javier Baez to a six-year deal worth $140 million. Here’s why that move was a mistake, only if there was no chance in signing the bigger names on the market, like Carlos Correa or Corey Seager before his deal was done with the Texas Rangers.
I would like to make it clear that this article isn’t really a knock on Baez, but more on the team’s decision to sign him rather than going after those bigger names. Baez is not a bad player, but I believe the Tigers shortchanged themselves by making him the guy they ultimately signed.
An explanation on why the Detroit Tigers shortchanged themselves by signing Javier Baez
Baez over his career has been (very slightly) an above-average Major League hitter. He has a career slash line of .264/.307/.477 for an OPS of .783, and a career 103 WRC+. Those numbers are similar to Randal Grichuk, who has a career .765 OPS but a 102 WRC+. The only difference between the two career-wise by these metrics is that Baez has a better batting average. Other than that they are eerily similar, and those are not great numbers for someone you are paying about $23 million per season.
Now Baez does have a lot of potential on the hitting side still, as shown in the second half of the 2021 season as well as back in 2018 when he was the runner-up for the National League MVP. The problem is he is very inconsistent. If you exclude the 2020 season, in both 2019 and 2021, he had one really good half, with the other ranging from really bad to just not good. This is where my problems lie with Baez and his fit with this team.
As a side note, I have no gripes with the signing on the defensive side as Baez has been one of the best defenders in MLB for years at this point. I think he will provide a lot of value to the Tigers for the entirety of his contract, especially now that he can be just a shortstop and focus on being amazing at just one position.
Now back to the hitting side.
One point of interest with Baez at the plate is that there is still more potential in him to be better on a regular basis. After even just a quick glance on his Baseball Savant page, you will see that Baez has a maximum exit velocity in the 98th percentile, reaching all the way up 116.7 mph. That is incredibly impressive. However, what I also note from his page is that his average exit velocity is at the 68th percentile, at about 90 mph on average over his career. That’s not what you would expect for someone with so much top-end power in his swing.
Originally I thought this would be because of the high ground-ball rate from Baez at 47% in 2021, but it is actually very similar to that of other big power hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 44.8% and Giancarlo Stantons 44.7%. Comparing their other rate stats, there is a contrast in their hit placements as Baez is a more pull-heavy hitter, but mainly there is a difference in their hard-hit rate as Baez is 5% lower. This relates back to his only slightly above average exit velocity.
Here’s a positive sign for the Detroit Tigers and Javier Baez
A positive sign for the Tigers is Baez’s stellar second half in 2021 where he had a hard hit rate of 39% (that’s 5% higher than his career average of 34.4%). He also moved his line drive rate up to 23%. However, it was skewed from the 28.6% he had in September and October.
Overall for me, Baez just does not have the consistency of being an above-average hitter enough for me to love him being the main guy in Detroit. Maybe that isn’t the expectation but, looking at the other guys already on the team or on the way up, it feels like that will be on Baez’s shoulders. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson are the only other guys I can see taking that role, but that is a lot of pressure when they still need to make their Major League debuts.
This is my main problem with the move because the Tigers needed a guy who could be the best hitter in their lineup every single game, and they just don’t seem to be getting that in Baez. There was a report from Buster Olney of ESPN last week that the Tigers offered Carlos Correa a contract worth $275 million over 10 seasons. Immediately upon seeing that, I knew it would be too low as Lindor received $341 million and Corey Seager got $325 million with the same length.
Now if the issue was money, it really shouldn’t have been. Even with Miguel Cabrera making $32 million for the next two seasons, the signing of Eduardo Rodriguez, and Javier Baez’s new deal, the Tigers are only at $103 million for the 2022 season. This leaves them with the 16th-highest payroll in baseball, and still $11 million lower than the league average.
Obviously there is potential for the Tigers to sign more free agents once the lockdown has ended, but I am not fully sure where they would be looking. Maybe another rotation piece, but they need to make sure they have room for the young guys to get their starts, and there are not many names left through free agency, with Carlos Rodon, Clayton Kershaw, and Zack Greinke really being the only ones of interest. Unless you want to look at the other than smaller names like Danny Duffy, Chris Archer, or maybe Michael Pineda.
The infield already looks set with Baez and Jonathan Schoop up the middle, Jeimer Candelario in the hot corner, and Torkelson primed to man first base for most of the season. Once Greene comes up the outfield looks in place for 2022 at least, with Akil Baddoo in left, Riley Greene in centre, and Robbie Grossman in right. So, other than the bullpen and maybe a veteran starter, neither of which would cost that much, or someone else to play second base, where there are few options better than Schoop in free agency, I don’t see where they are going to be spending all of this extra money.
Also, did you know that both E-Rod and Baez have opt-outs after two seasons, meaning they can just up and leave if the young guys haven’t found their stride yet? That could potentially leave Detroit with a lot of money to spend in the 2024, but could also leave them completely empty-handed in just a couple of seasons.
Boiling down the frustration about the Detroit Tigers signing Javier Baez
I just really thought it was going to be an offseason where the Detroit Tigers made a big statement, signing the best shortstop in MLB to lead this team into the future with a couple of young bats on the way and a young rotation that could be the best in baseball if they all hit their ceilings. I really feel that would have been the best route to go for Detroit.
Now, there is the possibility that neither Correa nor Seager wanted to sign with them. A team can have all the interest in the world but, if the guys are not interested, there isn’t much they can do about it. That feels unlikely though. Outside of the warm weather and a running mate now in Marcus Semien, is there really anything else about the Rangers that makes it a better destination for the future than this rising Detroit Tigers squad?
For Correa, I think he wants to start fresh somewhere outside of Houston, outside of the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers if they want to fork out the money, there is not much of a better option for him than Detroit heading looking ahead to the future, especially if they are just giving out player options after two seasons.
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Overall, it’s more of a tale of disappointment for me. I expected more heading into the offseason for Detroit to secure itself as such a prime spot for a guy like Correa to go. I really do hope that Baez can regularly be what he was in 2018 for the Tigers or, at the very least, just be consistent. Maybe with him manning shortstop, the Tigers the can be fighting for a playoff spot as as soon as next season.
I just wish they really went for it.