Where does Sandy Alcantara fit into Marlins top 5 pitching deals?
Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara just signed a major extension. Seems smart, but team history is shaky at best when it comes to big pitcher deals.
Shortly before the MLB lockout went into effect, the Miami Marlins made a major splash by signing staff ace Sandy Alcantara to five-year, $56 million contract extension.
But, should they have?
On the surface, absolutely. One of only four pitchers to log over 200 innings pitched last season, Alcantara established himself as one of the most reliable starters in the majors last season. Nobody had more starts, and only one pitcher (Walker Buehler) had more quality starts. Coming off a career-best season, there’s no quibbling with the on-the-field results.
Off the field, the move checks plenty of boxes for a rebuilding Miami Marlins franchise with an unfortunate track record of trading away their stars once they got too expensive. That last point touches upon what was perhaps the most shocking part of this extension, as Alcantara just set an MLB-record for extension dollar value with so much team control left. Notable for any club, but stunning for the traditionally cash-poor Marlins. It’s the surest financial sign yet that things might, just might, be changing in Little Havana.
However, if franchise history is any guide, the Marlins might have just made a huge mistake.
It’s a pitching rich history in Miami, to be sure, from Rookie of the Year winners and formidable veterans, to All-Stars and World Series MVPs. Yet every time the time came to break out the checkbook in a big way, and the Marlins actually did so, the return on investment has been questionable at best.
Now, that’s not to say extending Alcantara definitely was a mistake. Not by any means. Personally, this Marlins fan would have been more likely to advise giving up on the Marlins and buying some sweet Rays merchandise if the club hadn’t paid up for Alcantara than to criticize them for doing so.
Still, the fact remains that if the Marlins are still getting decent value out of this deal in 2024, it can safely be considered the best contract extension or free agent signing of a pitcher in team history.
Consequently, this seems like a great time to look back on the five biggest contracts the Miami Marlins have ever doled out to a pitcher, and how much the organization ultimately got back in return. Only then can a truly fair verdict on the Sandy Alcantara extension be made. So let’s take a trip down Marlins memory lane, starting with…
Heath Bell: 3 years, $27 million
It’s not often the Miami Marlins spend a lot on a relief pitcher. Recent history has been particularly disastrous, and the Heath Bell signing just might be the ultimate cautionary tale in why they shouldn’t do so.
Now, before moving on, it is worth noting that a decision has been made to ignore inflation when it comes to this list. Mostly, that’s because the decision really only matters here at the fifth spot. Otherwise, we’re just reshuffling the same four contracts. But, here at five, if one did adjust for inflation, a case could be made to swap out Bell for a much more successful Marlins closer: 1997 World Champion Robb Nen.
True, both only played one year of those extensions/contracts, and turned in one of the worst seasons of their careers in the process. But Nen still did win a championship. Whereas Bell … very much did not.
No, Bell instead was perhaps the most visible symbol of an extremely flawed, doomed before summer 2012 Miami Marlins squad. Brought in to be the lights out closer for a playoff caliber team, he couldn’t even finish the season in the role. His 2012 WAR was negative 0.4. As bad as some fans might think 2021 “closer” Anthony Bass was, he at least managed to stay in the black for WAR. Injuries and underperformance played larger roles to be sure for that team’s struggles, but you’d struggle to find a bigger underperformer on the 2012 team than Bell.
Bell was shipped out of town in a salary dump for a player who never saw the Majors a few weeks after the season ended.
Verdict? Money better spent in almost any other way. Which is a bit of a different story from…
Alex Fernandez: 5 years, $35 million
This time, there’s no avoiding putting a Marlins World Series winner on the list.
For one season, Alex Fernandez was a force to be reckoned with. The No. 2 option on a formidable rotation that carried Florida to its first winning season, first postseason, and first championship. He looked to be worth every penny of his five-year, $35 million deal, as he racked up the second highest innings total on the team with 222 innings pitched.
Unfortunately, those 220 innings in the first year of his contract were more than he’d pitch in the next four years combined.
Starting with a rotator cuff injury in that 1997 postseason, Fernandez battled arm issues the rest of his Marlins career. Two of those next four seasons he didn’t pitch at all, and in only one of them did he look anything like his former self. Ultimately, he retired with a year left on his deal.
Now, obviously teams can’t see the future or predict injuries. And if you assume that the Marlins don’t make the playoffs in 1997 without him, it’s hard to cast stones at this signing.
That being said, there are some concerning similarities between then and now. Fernandez had logged a lot of innings by the end of the 1996 season. Indeed, it was part of his appeal. He was a reliable innings eater with a reputation for going deep into games and being available every fifth day to take his turn in the rotation.
Sort of sounds familiar, doesn’t it?
Verdict? Flags fly forever, but those Fernandez dollars really would have helped this small market team in later years. It’s likely only the fact that the Marlins spent 1998 and 1999 totally tanking anyway that keeps this contract from being much more lamented.
As if that isn’t murky enough…
Josh Johnson: 4 years, $39 million
Remember that time MLB pretty much forced the Marlins to spend more of their revenue sharing money?
If you don’t, Josh Johnson certainly does.
In early 2010, Florida extended its unquestioned ace, buying out two arbitration years and the first two of free agency. In that respect, this contract is the closest parallel to the deal Alcantara just received. At the time, it was the most money the Marlins organization had ever committed to a pitcher, and the third-biggest contract/extension offered to any player in team history.
And for one year and one month, total success. Johnson delivered a career year in 2010, and followed it up with an even more dominant start to 2011. He was appointment television … until he wasn’t, missing the rest of the 2011 season due to injury (his third injury-shortened season in his Marlins career, mind you).
Johnson returned for 2012, still above average perhaps but no longer elite. He was traded away to Toronto at the end of the season in a salary purge as Miami’s second rebuild got underway.
As it turned out, Johnson’s last MLB pitch came just 81.1 innings into the 2013 campaign.
Verdict? Market-wise, likely worth what he produced. But did the Marlins organization get what they wanted out of the deal, save silencing MLB accountants? Not so much.
They’d get even less out of…
Mark Buehrle: 4 years, $58 million
There was plenty of blame to go around for how 2012 turned out for the Miami Marlins. However, you’d be hard pressed to place any of it on Mark Buehrle‘s shoulders.
Buehrle’s first, and only, year in Miami was every bit as good as the Marlins had a right to expect. He led the team in total innings, wins, WHIP, and was the only Marlins starting pitcher without a losing record that season. By WAR standards, he was the team’s third-most valuable player, just getting edged out by Johnson.
Dollar for dollar, this is the clearest comp for the Alcantara deal, with only $2 million worth of difference between them.
Unfortunately, when ownership’s grand plan didn’t work, Buehrle quickly became a luxury Miami couldn’t afford. He shared the same fate as Johnson, leaving town in the same blockbuster trade with Toronto. Fortunately for Buehrle, and the Blue Jays, he still had 600 quality innings in him before calling it a career three years later.
Verdict: Honestly, this was a good contract. The takeaway here is that a lot else has to go right for a low payroll team to keep somebody like Alcantara around. If the offense doesn’t take a major leap forward, expect to see Alcantara producing for someone else as soon as 2023.
If only the next name on the list ever allowed the Miami Marlins that opportunity.
Wei-Yin Chen: 5 years, $80 million
If you’re still reading this, you’re enough of a Miami Marlins fan that you don’t need to be told this sad, unfortunate truth about Wei-Yin Chen: This was the worst contract in the history of the franchise.
Eight-year MLB career, just over eight points of WAR. And he left Miami, and MLB, with less than he came into town with in the first place. Seems like as good a place to start as any in panning this disaster of a transaction.
Chen was brought in to stabilize the starting rotation, to serve as a reliable No. 2 behind Jose Fernandez. A task that Chen had done very little to prove he was capable of, especially when compared to the rest of the free agent options in his class. Chen was paid a borderline ace level contract, and finished 2016 as arguably the Miami Marlins fourth-most effective starting pitcher.
He never finished any better than that, battling injuries his whole Marlins career.
If Chen had either just underperformed, or just had injury issues, he might have been remembered differently. Unfortunately, the marriage of the two elevates his Marlins tenure to spectacular failure. Unlike in the case of the Alex Fernandez contract, Chen was not part of some greater team success that justified the cost. And unlike in the case of Heath Bell, Miami was stuck paying him every last penny of the deal.
That had real consequences every year he was in south Florida, and even after he was released. It doesn’t take too much imagination to see a path where Miami had winning seasons in 2016 and 2017 without him. As for the next three years, could that Chen money have kept one of the Marlins young stars as the face of the rebuild? Or perhaps bolstered the 2020 roster that made the playoffs? The answer to at least one of those questions is probably yes, and even one yes is enough.
Verdict: The Miami Marlins are only just now free of the biggest mistake in team history. And yes, I’m aware of the Miguel Cabrera and Christian Yelich trades.
Which brings us to the latest big money signing…
Sandy Alcantara: 5 years, $56 million
Now, just where does Alcantara’s deal fit in to all this mostly sad history for the Miami Marlins?
In terms of years committed, tied for the longest deal ever offered to a pitcher. In terms of dollars, it comes in third, although a sixth-year team option technically pushes it into second place.
But what about Alcantara himself? To what extent is he a better, or worse, investment compared to the other pitchers on this list?
In terms of age, he beats everyone but Johnson (both had new deals starting at age 26). That’s a big positive, and Johnson really is the best comp in terms of both where the players are at, as well as the Marlins organization itself.
There are two differences worth noting here, however.
The first is that while both Johnson and Alcantara established themselves as the best pitcher on the team at the time of their extension, you can quibble that Johnson had burned slightly brighter compared to the rest of MLB at the four-year mark of their careers.
The second, and potentially more consequential point, is that the gap between Johnson and the second-best Marlins starter, and any Marlins pitching prospect for the foreseeable future, was massive. The same cannot be said for Alcantara. Miami’s rotation is deep right now, and many scouts like their top prospects even more.
Alcantara entering the third year of his deal as the third-best pitcher on the team feels much more possible than that ever did for Johnson, Fernandez, or Buehrle.
However, that’s only true if he doesn’t improve. As noted at the top, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Alcantara’s production to this point is at worst his floor, with room to grow. At this price point, he’s well worth the cost for the next three seasons even if just repeats his 2019 numbers. If the Marlins get 2021 production or better going forward, he’ll be one of the best bargains in all of baseball for the length of the deal.
All of which makes him either the cornerstone of a team getting ready to start perennially contending, or one of the most coveted assets in baseball if things go south on the hitting front. As long as Alcantara stays healthy, this deal represents the best decision of the Jeter/Sherman era.
Next. Marlins must remember Moneyball heroes. dark
That said, it might already be the best pitching contract in team history. Here’s hoping Alcantara and the Marlins make that question academic when he takes the mound on Opening Day 2024.