Why are the Milwaukee Brewers consensus favorites in the NL Central for 2022 ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals?
The St. Louis Cardinals, with a far superior every-day lineup, ought to be the preseason divisional favorites. For the record, they also ought to be getting substantial interest for winning the entire National League, and possibly the World Series … although that last one is pretty distant in the future.
Instead, WynnBet is putting the “over” on Milwaukee wins at 88.5, with the Cardinals only second choice at 86. The Brewers are +1500 to win the World Series, the Cardinals +3000.
The contention that Milwaukee’s pitching staff is superior to St. Louis is cheerfully granted? But considering the totality of the teams, the Cardinals ought to rank ahead of the Brewers for the division. In fact, few teams in all of MLB are likely to begin 2022 with as set and quality a starting eight (nine if there’s a designated hitter in the National League) as St. Louis.
Begin at first base. Who would you rather have, Paul Goldschmidt or Rowdy Tellez? Goldschmidt, who at 34 remains basically in his prime, hit 31 home runs last season with a .294/.365/.514 slash line. Tellez hit .242 playing half time for Toronto and Milwaukee. Goldschmidt produced a 6.1 WAR while Tellez’s WAR was -0.5. That is the definition of no contest.
Second base was fundamentally a standoff. Tommy Edman produced a .262/.308/.387 slash line with a 3.7 WAR for the Cardinals, while Milwaukee’s regular, Kolten Wong, slashed .272/.335/.447 with 3.3 WAR.
The Cardinals could well be turning shortstop over to Edmundo Sosa full-time. In 2021, he was a .271 hitter with a .735 OPS and a 3.2 WAR. Milwaukee’s 2021 trade acquisition, Willie Adames, deserves to be viewed as superior at that position with his 3.5 WAR based on a .285 average and .886 OPS.
But shortstop is literally the only position on the starting eight where Milwaukee can claim an advantage. At third base, the Cardinals line up Nolan Arenado, a six-time All-Star with five platinum gloves. Arenado will be 31, and he is coming off a 34-homer and .807 OPS season that translated to 4.1 WAR.
The Brewers, meanwhile, weakly counter with Luis Urias, he of the .789 OPS and 3.1 WAR.
In left, St. Louis presents Tyler O’Neill, one of the breakout stars of 2021. O’Neill hit .286 with 34 home runs and a .912 OPS. Alongside him in the outfield are the speedy Harrison Bader and the fast-developing Dylan Carlson. That trio’s collective 2021 OPS was 13.4.
Milwaukee counters with Christian Yelich, coming off a second straight sub-par season, Lorenzo Cain, a 36-year-old who may be washed up, and Hunter Renfroe. The collective 2021 WAR of that threesome was 5.7, less than half the Cardinals’ projected outfield.
Behind the plate Milwaukee leads with Omar Narvaez, supplemented by Pedro Severino. But the Cardinals still have Yadier Molina, supplemented by nobody. This is not a case of two heads being better than one; Narvaez and Manny Pina, last year’s backup in Milwaukee, combined for 2.8 WAR last season and threw out only 24.2 percent of opposing baserunners. Molina threw out 41` percent of opposing base stealers with a 1.8 WAR as a solo act.
With Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff leading the way, Milwaukee’s rotation is plainly superior. The Brewers also have the proven closer in Josh Hader, although St. Louis — with either Alex Reyes or Giovanny Gallegos — may have the 2022 bullpen breakout.
Still, when you balance the Brewers’ edge in returning pitching WAR against the Cardinals’ substantial advantage in returning lineup WAR, the math works out slightly in favor of St. Louis, +39.0 to +38.4.
Combine that with the projections of young stars such as O’Neill and Carlson, and the reliability of Goldschmidt and Arenado, it is a formidable lineup indeed.
Then combine that with the normal notorious year-to-year fluctuation in pitching performance — which makes Milwaukee’s strong point less dependable — and the St. Louis Cardinals should enter 2022 as divisional favorites.