Comparing Carlos Correa and Corey Seager
Carlos Correa and Corey Seager entered this off-season widely considered the top two free agents in baseball. When looking at their careers so far, the similarities are striking. Both are shortstops that were drafted in the first round of the 2012 draft, premiered in 2015, won a Rookie of the Year, named to two all-star teams, and won a World Series title.
Before the 2015 season Baseball America rated Correa as the #4 prospect in baseball and Seager the #5. Even their progressions through the minor leagues were nearly identical. Both played rookie ball in 2012 and moved up to Class-A in 2013. From there, Seager’s promotions preceded Correa for A+, AA, and AAA, the latter by only 11 days. Correa, however, would make it to the big leagues three months before Seager.
Seven years later the comparisons continue, as will be the case with this article and when Carlos Correa resumes talks with prospective teams after the lockout. With Seager signing a 10-year/$325 million contract with the Texas Rangers earlier this off-season, potential suitors for Correa will surely be looking at that deal as they prepare their offers.
Before we look at how they compare, let’s take a look at the merits of each to this point in their careers.
Carlos Correa
Over the past seven seasons, Correa has been one of the most productive players in baseball. Since 2015, his 34.1 bWAR ranks sixth for position players. This despite playing in only 77% of the Astros games since he made his debut. Of the players ahead of him on that list, only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts have produced more bWAR per 162 games than Correa. While that is certainly impressive, missing an average of a quarter of each season is a concern.
At the major league level, Correa has missed 50+ games in three seasons. Persistent back issues, a fractured rib, and a torn thumb ligament are just some of the issues that have sidelined him over the years. The last two seasons, however, he has been healthy and available nearly every day.
As a hitter, Correa has produced a solid .277/.356/.481/.837 line over his career, good for a 127 OPS+, or 27 percent above league average. In five of his seven seasons, he’s produced an OPS over .800 and an OPS+ over 120 and in the other two, he’s produced slightly below average seasons. Injuries in 2018 and the difficulties of playing through the many restrictions in 2020 may have played a factor in his subpar batting seasons.
As a fielder, Correa has been consistently excellent and has steadily improved. In 2021, he won both a Gold Glove and the Platinum Glove and pretty much all defensive metrics back up those selections. He rated first in all of MLB in Baseball Reference’s defensive WAR, with 2.9, and Defensive Runs Saved with 20. Outs Above Average had him a little lower but still in the top-10. While 2021 was his best defensive season, his career numbers are all significantly above average and he is clearly one of the best defensive players in the game.
The great news for Correa is that his best season as a big leaguer was his most recent season. In 2021 at age-26, he set career bests in runs scored (104), home runs (26), walk rate (11.7%), strikeout rate (18.1%), and both bWAR (7.2) and fWAR (5.8) and he was healthy enough to play 148 games. If Correa’s career follows the typical path of MLB players, anyone signing Correa is likely getting his five most productive seasons (ages 27-31) and then a number of excellent seasons after that even as he begins to decline.
Corey Seager
Corey Seager has also been one of the best players in baseball since making his debut at age-21 in 2015. Known more for his bat than his glove, Seager has produced an excellent .297/.367/.504/.871 batting line, good for a 131 OPS+ over his career. And, while he’s missed a fair share of games (playing in 71% of the Dodgers games since his debut), he’s consistently produced at an above average to excellent level throughout his career.
Seager has played 145 games just twice in his career as he’s suffered a broken hand on an HBP (2021), hamstring injury (2019), and had Tommy John surgery (2018) that have resulted in extended absences. In 2021, he missed two and half months but finished the last two months healthy and played great after his return.
Seager is perhaps best known for his postseason heroics in 2020. In 18 games that postseason he hit 8 home runs, scored 20 runs, and drove in 20 while hitting .328/.425/.746/1.171 and winning MVP for both the NLCS and World Series as the Dodgers won their first World Series in 32 years.
Defensively, Seager is roughly an average defender. Over his career, he’s produced 2.5 dWAR according to Baseball Reference but also has -5 DRS and -17 OAA. Range factor and fielding percentage also have him as a little below average.
Comparison
Corey Seager has a slight edge over Carlos Correa as a hitter, leading him in nearly every rate statistic such as AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wRC+, and wOBA. Correa, however, has been healthier more often than Seager and has a decent lead in nearly every counting statistic including, G, PA, R, HR, RBI, and SB. Correa walks more frequently but also strikes out more frequently.
Correa is clearly the better defender. By pretty much every statistical measure, Correa has outperformed Seager in the field. Even if you’re not a fan of advanced fielding statistics like OAA or DRS (where Correa has a sizeable lead), Correa’s career fielding percentage of .981 is better than Seager’s .968 mark during a span where league average has been .973. Correa has also made 12 fewer errors over his career despite having over 600 more chances than Seager.
By wins above replacement, Correa has a sizeable advantage in bWAR (34.1 to 21.3) but they are pretty even in fWAR (25.1 for Correa to 23.7 for Seager), especially when you factor in that Correa has played over 100 more games at the MLB level.
It may come as a surprise that Correa’s postseason hitting numbers also exceed Seager’s. Yes, Seager had an amazing run in 2020 that cannot be discounted but outside of that his postseason numbers have been fairly pedestrian. In 61 postseason games in his career, Seager has hit .236/.318/.459/.777 with 13 HR. Correa has produced a .272/.344/.505/.849 line with 18 HR in 79 career postseason games. Correa doesn’t have the postseason awards like Seager and there will always be a cloud of suspicion surrounding any Astros hitter in the postseason the last few years. For those reasons, it’s reasonable to lean towards Seager in the postseason but even the most skeptical fan should acknowledge Correa’s solid postseason resume.
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All in all, it seems safe to assume that Corey Seager’s $32.5 million average annual value is a starting point for Correa. It’s hard to know exactly what baseball contracts will look like when the lockout ends but if a team signs Correa for less than what Seager received then they have a relative bargain for one of the league’s top players in their prime. My prediction is that Carlos Correa will sign for 8 years and $270 million ($35 mil AAV) and will secure an opt out after the fourth or fifth year.