Comparing Carlos Correa and Corey Seager

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 25: Corey Seager #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits an RBI single against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning in Game Five of the 2020 MLB World Series at Globe Life Field on October 25, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 25: Corey Seager #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits an RBI single against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning in Game Five of the 2020 MLB World Series at Globe Life Field on October 25, 2020 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Comparison

Corey Seager has a slight edge over Carlos Correa as a hitter, leading him in nearly every rate statistic such as AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, wRC+, and wOBA. Correa, however, has been healthier more often than Seager and has a decent lead in nearly every counting statistic including, G, PA, R, HR, RBI, and SB. Correa walks more frequently but also strikes out more frequently.

Correa is clearly the better defender. By pretty much every statistical measure, Correa has outperformed Seager in the field. Even if you’re not a fan of advanced fielding statistics like OAA or DRS (where Correa has a sizeable lead), Correa’s career fielding percentage of .981 is better than Seager’s .968 mark during a span where league average has been .973. Correa has also made 12 fewer errors over his career despite having over 600 more chances than Seager.

By wins above replacement, Correa has a sizeable advantage in bWAR (34.1 to 21.3) but they are pretty even in fWAR (25.1 for Correa to 23.7 for Seager), especially when you factor in that Correa has played over 100 more games at the MLB level.

It may come as a surprise that Correa’s postseason hitting numbers also exceed Seager’s. Yes, Seager had an amazing run in 2020 that cannot be discounted but outside of that his postseason numbers have been fairly pedestrian. In 61 postseason games in his career, Seager has hit .236/.318/.459/.777 with 13 HR. Correa has produced a .272/.344/.505/.849 line with 18 HR in 79 career postseason games. Correa doesn’t have the postseason awards like Seager and there will always be a cloud of suspicion surrounding any Astros hitter in the postseason the last few years. For those reasons, it’s reasonable to lean towards Seager in the postseason but even the most skeptical fan should acknowledge Correa’s solid postseason resume.

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All in all, it seems safe to assume that Corey Seager’s $32.5 million average annual value is a starting point for Correa. It’s hard to know exactly what baseball contracts will look like when the lockout ends but if a team signs Correa for less than what Seager received then they have a relative bargain for one of the league’s top players in their prime. My prediction is that Carlos Correa will sign for 8 years and $270 million ($35 mil AAV) and will secure an opt out after the fourth or fifth year.