Because the pitchers and prospects will be worth more in July
Ultimately, if the Miami Marlins are really bound and determined to make another big trade in 2022, they should wait until July to do it.
The two most coveted things in MLB are pitchers and prospects. The Marlins have plenty of both. Regardless of how Miami’s season is looking come trade deadline time, the team can position itself to take advantage of the annual frenzy if they go into July armed with the same war chest they have right now.
Should Miami have the season they hope to have, with a winning record and a wild card chase in an expanded playoff field, then the organization can spend prospect capital knowing that it is worth it to do so. They can also do having had the benefit of five extra months of evaluation of their system. As noted on the previous slide, the Marlins can’t afford to trade the wrong player. Prospects should never be spent lightly-see almost every trade from the Jeffrey Loria era for reference- and the cost will be higher in summer than in spring. But the reward of knowing this roster is capable of contention, and knowing more about this group of young talent, is worth the extra prospect it would cost to get something done.
Now, if 2022 doesn’t go the way Miami wants to, then that’s even more reason to wait. Because in that scenario, we’re probably talking about MLB ready pitching being dealt for prospects. Which means the Marlins are the team that can charge the premium. Think Pablo Lopez won’t fetch some contender’s top hitting prospect? Think again.
Thus far this offseason, the Miami Marlins have actually done very well in bolstering the MLB roster without blowing up the farm. However, none of those moves have been for the type of talent Miami is purportedly targeting right now.
No need to break that streak now. Time to pay up and put the finishing touch on the 2022 Marlins.