The 25 most decisive plays in World Series history

The greatest moments in World Series history live in our memories.

Our judgments about those moments, however, can be biased. They can be biased by the memorability of the television description of them, by our level of fan interest, by subsequent media coverage, or by a plethora of other things..

The numbers, however, do not lie. What follows is a look at the 25 most decisive moments in the 120 years of World Series history as viewed through the objective prism of Championship Probability Added.

The metric is fairly easy to understand. It asks one simple question: How much did the likelihood of the World Series outcome swing on the play in question?

Championship Probability, an easy riff on the more familiar Win Probability Added, flows from the understanding that every event in a game moves the odds of either team winning by some, usually small percentage.

In World Series history, more than 70 plays have moved that Championship needle by as much as 17 percent, which is a really big swing. During the 2021 World Series, for example, no plays moved the decision needle to that extent. In fact, since 2017, there have been only three such plays.

But decisive plays occur in spurts, largely hinging on the closeness of the game, and the point in the Series at which that game is played. For instance, there were three such plays during the memorable 2016 Series between the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs alone.

There is a randomness to these big plays, and especially with regard to who’s involved in them. So while greats of the game such as Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, and Joe Morgan play a role, so also do comparative unknowns. Who was Elmer Miller,  anyway, and how did fate deal him such a pivotal role in one of the decisive moments in World Series  history?

Here are the 25 most statistically decisive moments in the history of the World Series.

The heading information includes the batter and pitcher involved, the teams, the date, and the change in Championship Probability brought about by the outcome.

25. Game 7, October 27, 1991. Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins

Kent Hrbek vs. Mike Stanton. Change in Championship Probability: 27.49 percent

There is general agreement that the seventh game of the 1991 World Series, the pitchers’ duel between Jack Morris and John Smoltz, ranks among the great games in baseball history.

Several moments stand out from that evening, two of which rank among the 25 most decisive in World Series history.  Both unfolded during the eighth inning of that scoreless duel, and – on  a pitching-dominant night — both turned in favor of the defense.

By the bottom of the eighth, it seemed clear that if either team could push across a run, that would be the difference in the world championship. When Randy Bush, pinch hitting for Greg Gagne, opened the bottom of the eighth with only the fifth hit off Smoltz, the wheels began turning in both dugouts.

Twins manager Tom Kelly sent Al Newman out to run for Bush, entrusting the offense to leadoff hitter Dan Gladden. Smoltz got him on an easy fly to Ron Gant in center.

But Chuck Knoblach sent a line drive past first baseman Sid Bream, allowing Newman to carry the go-ahead run all the way to third base. His hand forced, Braves manager Bobby Cox pulled Smoltz, opting instead for lefty ace Mike Stanton to walk the powerful Kirby Puckett and load the bases, then take his chances with the equally dangerous Kent Hrbek.

It was strictly a matter of playing the percentages. A 20-homer guy during the regular season, Hrbek Hrbek had found nothing but frustration against Braves pitching. His series had netted only three hits in 20 at bats, a .150 average.

Against Smoltz that night he’d had only buzzard’s luck: a lineout, a fly to the deepest part of the park, and – to add injury – he’d been hit by a pitch.

Facing Stanton, Hrbek worked the count to 2-1, looked for a fat fastball and got it. He squared it up but drove it right into the glove of Braves second baseman Mark Lemke. In a split second Lemke caught the ball and stepped on second for the threat-killing double play.

When Hrbek came to bat in a bases loaded, one out, bottom of the eighth situation, the odds of a Twins victory measured 77 percent. The line drive double play reduced those odds to dead even, 50 percent.

24. Game 7, October 10, 1924, New York Giants at Washington Senators

Earl McNeely vs. Virgil Barnes. Change in Championship Probability: 28.47 percent.

Like Game 7 in 1991, the seventh game of the 1924 World Series between the Washington Senators and New York Giants is considered among the all-time classics. Three moments from that game rank among the 25 most decisive in World Series history.

Oddly, those three unfolded chronologically in reverse order of their statistical importance. That means what appears to have been the series’ climactic moment only ranks 24th on this list, behind the two moments that preceded it in time. Those two scene-setting moments will be dealt with later.

For the present it is enough to know that the game was tied at 3-3 entering the bottom of the 12th inning. That’s when fate finally decided the issue.

With one out, catcher Muddy Ruel, lifted an easy foul pop near home plate. But veteran Giants catcher Hank Gowdy somehow managed to get his foot caught in his discarded catcher’s mask, tripping and giving  Ruel new life. Ruel seized the opportunity, and rolled a hot grounder into left field, racing to second base.

Walter Johnson, working in relief, was the next hitter. With the Series winning run in scoring position, one out and a pitcher batting, one might have assumed that manager Bucky Harris would lift Johnson for a pinch hitter. But Harris had three excellent reasons not to do so: He needed Johnson on the mound, he had nothing to speak of left on his exhausted bench, and besides that Johnson was actually a decent hitter. He had batted .283 that season with 14 RBIs.

Again fate intervened. Johnson bounced a grounder to Travis Jackson  at shortstop, but the usually reliable fielder bobbled the ball and could not make a play. With runners at first and second and still just one out, Earl McNeely, the team’s leadoff hitter, got the next shot.

McNeely rapped Bentley’s first pitch on a sharp hop toward third baseman Fred Lindstrom, and fate took a third healthy swing of its own. What might have been an inning-ending double play ball instead caromed over LIndstrom’s head into left field as Ruel raced home with the run that gave Washington its first – and until 2019 only—World Series flag.

As McNeely stood in, the odds of a Senators victory had climbed to 72 percent. McNeely added the final 28 percent.

23. October 27, 1991, Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins

Sid Bream vs. Jack Morris. Change in Championship Probability: 28.75 percent

Moments before Hrbek’s dramatic line out (see entry 25), the Braves had an equally juicy chance of their own. Through seven innings, Jack Morris had effectively scattered five hits, allowing only one runner to reach third base. In the top of the eighth, though, Atlanta mounted the game’s first serious threat.

Lonnie Smith opened the inning with a check-swing single, and Terry Pendleton, destined in a few weeks to be named the National League’s Most Valuable Player, followed with a ringing double off the wall in left-center. Smith might have tried to score, but did not pick up the flight of the ball in time, hesitated around second and had to hold up. It would be a fateful hesitation.

Kelly called time and came out, but allowed Morris to talk him into letting his starter stay. The next batter was Ron Gant, but with the infield in he produced nothing more dramatic than a weak ground out  to Hrbek at first.

Morris intentionally walked Dave Justice, filling the bases and leaving the issue up to Braves first baseman Sid Bream.

Both the Series and evening had been rough for Bream, batting in the .180s against Twins pitching   and hitless with two groundouts against Morris. With two strikes and a ball, Morris for a second straight batter got the weak contact he was seeking. Bream tapped an easy hopper to Hrbek, who began a 3-2-3 double play that killed both the threat and the inning.

When Bream had come to bat with bags full and one out, the Braves had a 68 percent chance of winning the game and series. With the inning’s abrupt end, those chances plummeted to just 39 percent.

22.  Game 6, October 27, 2011, Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals

David Freese vs. Neftali Feliz. Change in Championship Probability, +29.08

The Texas Rangers were as close as the franchise would ever come to a World Series win. With two out in the ninth inning of the sixth game of the 2011 World Series the Rangers led the Series three games to two and led the game 7-5. Then David Freese took over.

Freese was a career minor leaguer completing his first full major league season. It was one in which he had finally proven his major league credentials: a .297 average in 97 games as the Cardinal third baseman.

This game, which the Cardinals had to have to extend their chances, had been a frustrating one for both Freese and his team. He had struck out in the first inning, grounded out in the fourth and grounded out again in the eighth, his only “success” — if you could call it that – being a sixth inning base on balls.

Meanwhile the Cardinals had left eight runners on base.

Now Freese faced the ultimate combination of that misery. Rangers closer Neftali Feliz had fanned Ryan Theriot, allowed a double to Albert Pujols and walked Lance Berkman, then caught Allen Craig looking. With the tying runs on base, Freese was the last St. Louis hope.

As Freese stood in, the likelihood of a Rangers Series clinching win were an imposing 92 percent. Feliz got him into a 1-2 count before the improbable occurred. Freese got a low-outside pitch he could extend on and sent it rocketing toward the wall in right field.

Rangers right fielder Nelson Cruz, never one known for his glove, tried to retreat but could only flail helplessly as the ball sailed over his outstretched glove and struck the base of the wall. By the time Cruz recovered and got it in, both Pujols and Berkman had scored and Freese was safely in at third.

Having saved his team from defeat, Freese proceeded two innings later to win the game with an 11th inning home run. One night later, his two-run first inning double would key a 6-2 Series clinching win for the team that had been one pitch away from defeat.

21. Game 8, October 16, 1912, New York Giants at Boston Red Sox

Fred Merkle vs. Smoky Joe Wood. Change in Championship Probability: 29.15 percent

More than a century after it was played, the 1912 World Series continues to rank among the half dozen best in the game’s history. Much of the reason for that is the dramatic playout of the eighth and concluding game (there had been one tie).

Two moments from this game are among the 25 most decisive.

That eighth game pitted a certified immortal, Giants ace Christy Mathewson, against the young and aggressive Red Sox lineup led by Tris Speaker. Through nine taut innings the teams were tied 1-1.

After Olaf Henriksen’s pinch hit RBI double broke Mathewson’s mastery and tied the game in the seventh, Boston catcher-manager Bill Carrigan called on his own ace, 34-game winner Smoky Joe Wood, to pitch in relief. Wood had already won twice in the Series, but he’d also been cuffed around badly just the previous day, allowing six first-inning runs.

Wood matched Mathewson through the eighth and ninth innings, sending the game into the 10th. But with one out, Giants right fielder Red Murray sent a drive into fans on the field in left-center for a ground rule double, giving first baseman Fred Merkle a chance.

Merkle took advantage, lining a solid base hit up the middle. Speaker bobbled the ball, allowing Merkle to take second, but by then Murray was already home with the lead run.

Merkle’s dramatic hit upended the game’s math. When he stepped in, the Giants had only a 44 percent chance to win the game and Series. His single jumped those odds all the way to 85 percent.

But 85 percent is not 100 percent, as the Giants would soon find out. See entry No. 2.

20. Game 7, October 17, 1979, Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles

Willie Stargell vs.  Scott McGregor. Change in Championship Probability: 29.25 percent.

The long, uphill battle waged over four days by the National League champion Pittsburgh Pirates was losing stream.  Through four games of the 1979 Series, they sat on the brink of elimination, trailing three games to one and with a pitching staff that had been thoroughly taken apart by the Orioles in Games 3 and 4 in Pittsburgh.

Following a travel day, the Pirates won a 7-1 Game 5 rout, then got a 4-0 Game 6 shutout from John Candelaria and Kent Tekulve in Baltimore. Now, however, they had to take down Oriole ace Scott McGregor in Game 7 … and McGregor was dealing.

Through five innings McGregor had allowed just three hits. Rich Dauer’s leadoff home run in the third gave him a one-run margin to work with.  When Dave Parker opened the sixth inning with an easy ground out, the probability of an Orioles victory hit 66 percent.

Then Bill Robinson sneaked a base hit between shortstop and third base into left field. That brought up Stargell, the team’s unquestioned leader and elder statesman. Stargell was 39 in 1979, but he was far from a symbolic leader. During the regular season he had produced 32 home runs and 82 RBIs on a .904 OPS.

He was, in other words, fit for the moment, and about to show it. Stargell lofted McGregor’s first pitch into Memorial Stadium’s right field bleachers for a two-run home run.

That 70 percent likelihood of an Orioles victory from moments ago had suddenly been converted into a  66 percent likelihood of a Pirates win.

Three innings later, that was precisely what happened, the 4-1 Pittsburgh win capping a memorable comeback.

19. October 15, 1925. Washington Senators at Pittsburgh Pirates

Kiki Cuyler vs. Walter Johnson. Change in Championship Probability: 29.26 percent

One October earlier, Walter Johnson had held off the New York Giants through three extra innings until his Senators could nail down one of the most pulsating Game 7s in history.

Now, the onus fell on Johnson to carry his Senators to a repeat title.

From Johnson’s standpoint, the 1925 Series had been far more of an individual success than 1924. He defeated the National League champion Pittsburgh Pirates 4-1 in Game 1, then shut them out 4-0 in Game 4. Into the eighth inning of this seventh game, though, the 37-year-old Johnson was holding on.

The Senators had gifted him with four first-inning runs and a 5-3 lead through four innings. As the bottom off the eighth opened, though, Pittsburgh had closed to within one run, 7-6.

Johnson’s collapse actually unfolded across two dramatic moments paced just seconds apart, and – coincidentally – landing back-to-back in this countdown. The first – and slightly more important – will be dealt with in entry 18. This entry concerns the second.

The moment begins two outs into the bottom of the eighth, Pittsburgh having tied the game 7-7, and with Pirate Carson Bigbee perched at second.

Win or lose, Senators manager Bucky Harris was committed to Johnson. He worked around Eddie Moore and walked him, then coaxed Max Carey into a ground ball that might have gotten the Senators out of the inning with a tie. But shortstop Roger Peckinpaugh, in the throes of a terrible defensive series, capped it with his eighth error on an errant throw to Harris at second for the force. The bases were now full.

As outfielder Kiki Cuyler came to the plate, the odds of a favorable outcome for Pittsburgh had already shifted substantially. As the inning began, those odds favored Washington by 66 percent. By the time Cuyler arrived on the scene, they favored Pittsburgh by 64 percent.

Cuyler moved them even more. The right-hander slashed a liner down the right field line, the ball hopping into the Forbes Field grandstands for a ground rule double that scored Bigbee and Moore. That gave Pittsburgh a 9-7 lead with three outs to get and a 93 percent likelihood of winning the Series.

When Red Oldham put down Washington in order in the top of the ninth, that’s precisely what happened.

18. Game 7, October 15, 1925. Washington Senators at Pittsburgh Pirates

Carson Bigbee vs. Walter Johnson. Change in Championship Probability: 29.49 percent

Cuyler’s heroics had been preceded by – chronologically at least – an even more dramatic turn at the plate. As noted above, Johnson’s Senators entered the bottom of the eighth with a 7-6 lead and a 66 percent likelihood of winning. Those odds only grew when Johnson retired hard-hitting shortstop Glenn Wright on a foul pop to third baseman Ossie Bluege, and Stuffy McInnis flied lazily to Sam Rice in center.

Johnson was now just four outs from wrapping up back-to-back championships for the Senators. He was also facing the bottom of Pittsburgh’s order, specifically catcher Earl Smith.

But Smith had been hot against the Senators, with six hits in 19 at bats. Only one of those hits, though, had come against Johnson.

Apparently Smith was due. He lined a double into right field. With pitcher Ray Kremer due next, Pirates manager Bill McKechnie went to his bench and found Carson Bigbee, a part-time outfielder who had batted just .238 in 66 games.

On the surface, Bigbee vs. Johnson sounds like no contest. But baseball is a funny game; Bigbee looked at two balls, then lofted a fly to deep left that fell between Rice and Goose Goslin for a double. Pinch runner Emil Yde brought home the tying run and Bigbee carried the go-ahead run into scoring position for Cuyler.

17. Game 4, October 3, 1947. New York Yankees at Brooklyn Dodgers

Cookie Lavagetto vs. Bill Bevens. Change in Championship Probability: 30.01 percent

Cookie Lavagetto’s double off the right field wall at Ebbets is understandably recalled for ending Bevens’ no-hit. Overshadowed by that memory is the hit’s significant impact on the course of the World Series itself.

Remember that Lavagetto’s pinch hit double came with two on and two out in the ninth inning of a game the Yankees led 2-1. Forget the no-hitter; if Bevens had retired Lavagetto the Yanks would have taken a commanding 3-1 lead in the Series. Instead, the Dodgers walked off the field tied at two games each.

The hit was not, as it eventually turned out, as pivotal as it might have been. The Yankees came back to win two of the final three games and take the Series 4-3. But as Lavagetto came to the plate, nobody knew that.

Lavagetto was a 10-year veteran playing, as it turned out, in the final series of his career. A starter in only 13 games during the regular season he was manager Burt Shotton’s primary option off the bench.

So when Bevens chased his fated no-hit bid into that ninth inning, Lavagetto was always a logical option at the right moment.

Bevens’ control gave the Dodgers that moment. Although holding the Dodgers hitless, he had allowed eight walks and only twice retired the Dodgers in order. Brooklyn’s run came on a pair of bunts, a sacrifice, and an infield grounder.

Bevens got the first hitter, catcher Bruce Edwards, on a fly ball, but surrendered his ninth walk to Carl Furillo. After Spider Jorgensen popped out, Pete Reiser pinch hit for pitcher Hugh Casey but did not get a chance to swing the bat.  Al Gionfriddo, pinch running for Furillo, stole second, after which Yankee manager Casey Stengel directed Bevens to hand Reiser a tenth base on balls. It also put the potential winning run on base.

Second baseman Eddie Stanky, who had drawn two of Bevens’ walks, was due next. But Shotton opted to send up Lavagetto instead. As he stepped in, the two-on, two-out, one-run deficit translated to an  82 percent chance of  a Yankee victory, with less than a 20 percent likelihood of the Dodgers coming back to win the Series.

By the time Lavagetto’s hit crashed off the right field wall, allowing Gionfriddo and Reiser to score the tying and winning runs — and coincidentally ending the no-hitter —  the Dodgers had a 100 percent sure thing win that day and essentially an even shot at winning the Series.

16. Game 4, October 24, 2020, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays at Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas

Brett Phillips vs. Kenley Jansen. Change in Championship Probability: 30.23 percent.

Minus the no-hit bid, the circumstances of Phillips’ dramatic game-ending hit essentially mirror Lavagetto’s of nearly three-quarters of a century earlier. The team at bat trailed two games to win in the Series and also trailed by a run in the game with two out and  the tying and winning runs on base.

Rays manager Kevin Cash had inserted Brett Phillips into the game one inning earlier as a pinch runner for his first baseman, Ji Man Choi. He remained in the game as a right fielder when the previous right fielder, Hunter Renfroe, took over at first.

It’s unlikely Cash thought of Renfroe as the offensive answer in a vital situation. He was a .226 hitter during the Covid-truncated regular season with only one defensive appearance and no at bats to that point in the Series.

Dodger manager Dave Roberts called on his ace closer, Kenley Jansen, to get the final three outs. But nothing had been easy for either pitching staff in this 7-6 game, and Jansen’s ninth would be no exception. After fanning Yoshi Tsutsugo, he watched Kevin Kiermaier bloop a broke bat base hit just out of the reach of second baseman Kiki Hernandez..

The second out came when Joey Wendle ripped a line drive to left that Joc Pedersen ran under.

Now Jansen faced a choice. Randy Arozarena, a rookie but Tampa Bay’s hottest post-season hitter, was due next, with Phillips, the offensive afterthought, on deck. Jansen tried to nibble Arozarena to death, working the count full before overthrowing a breaking ball in the dirt, walking Arozarena.

That threw the issue to Phillips, who had not batted in a big league game in more than two weeks. He hadn’t hit safely in the post-season.

Down 1-2 in the count, Phillips replicated Kiermaier’s swing, a dying quail just over the infield in short right-center. Kiermaier scored easily to tie the game, and when right fielder Chris Taylor bobbled the ball Arozarena tried to score from first as well.

What happened next had to be seen to be believed. Arozarena, rounding third out of control, stumbled and fell halfway home. But as he did so, the relay throw from first baseman Max Muncy caromed away from catcher Will Smith. Now Arozarena recovered his footing, broke for home again, and scored the game-winner on a head-first slide.

Sadly for storybook finishes, the Dodgers went on to win Games 5 and 6 and take the Series 4 games to 2.

14. Game 7, October 15, 1946. Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

Dom DiMaggio vs. Harry Brecheen. Change in Championship Probability: 31.86 percent

Two moments from the climactic game of this first postwar World Series rank among the 10 most pivotal of all time, and they end up back-to-back in our measurement.

Because his Red Sox did not ultimately win the Series, Dom DiMaggio’s moment tends to get covered over by the one that followed. That’s unfair to Dom.

Here’s the situation. It’s the top of the eighth inning at Sportsman’s Park, the Series deadlocked at three games a side. Boston enters the eighth trailing the Cardinals 3-1, St. Louis starter Murry Dickson having held them to just three hits. The only Boston run scored on DiMaggio’s first inning sacrifice fly.

But when  pinch hitter Rip Russell opened the inning with  a base hit and George Metkovich followed with a  double to the wall in left, the Red Sox had the tying runs at second and third and  none out. In mere seconds, the prospects of a Cardinal wrapup had diminished from 88 percent when the inning began to around 60 percent; still good, but squeamish.

Cardinal manager Eddie Dyer was squeamish enough to remove Dickson in favor of his left handed ace, Harry Brecheen. When Brecheen fanned Wally Moses and got Johnny Pesky on a soft liner to shallow right, the change looked like genius level. Only DiMaggio remained as an obstacle to quell the threat.

Brecheen would not be so fortunate; not yet, anyway. DiMaggio slapped a shot over first baseman Stan Musial’s head and into right field, Russell and Metkovich carrying the game-tying runs across.

Boston’s hopes, on life support moments earlier, had now improved to a point where statistically they had a 47 percent chance of winning.

But there remained the bottom of the eighth and the ninth to navigate.

13. Game 7, October 15, 1946, Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals

Harry Walker vs. Bob Klinger. Change in Championship Probability: 31.95 percent

With Ted Williams due to follow DiMaggio to the plate, his game-tying double actually put the Red Sox in an even more advantageous position than the math suggested. But the all-time Red Sox great had been having a bad World Series, when with the lead  run in scoring position he popped out, sending the game into the bottom of the eighth.

Boston manager Bob Klinger called on his bullpen ace, Bob Klinger, to navigate those final outs and hopefully preserve the tie. Enos Slaughter gave Cardinal hopes a boost with a clean single to center, but Klinger retired Whitey Kurowski and Del Rice, Slaughter anchoring at first.

The next hitter, Harry Walker, and bounced back from a sub-standard regular season to persistently  nettle the Red Sox. He had hit safely in each of his four previous Series starts, and earlier that afternoon had driven in one run and scored another.

With Slaughter running on the pitch, Walker drove what looked like a clean single fielded in center field by Leon Culberson. Slaughter raced toward third, then without braking barreled toward home. His aggression perhaps caught shortstop Johnny Perky, handling Culberson’s throw, by surprise. Pesky’s momentary indecision was all Slaughter needed to slide home safely with the go-ahead – and eventual winning – run.

Brecheen still had to navigate a ninth inning that turned precarious. But with two out and runners at second and third, he retired Tom McBride on a groundout to wrap up the Series for St. Louis.

12. Game 7, October 10, 1924. New York Giants at Washington Senators

Hugh McQuillen vs. Hack Miller. Change in Championship Probability: 32.81 percent

The conclusion of this great game has already been detailed in entry No. 24. How the two teams got to that point involves two even more dramatic moments, one of them unfolding in the bottom of the ninth.

With one out in that 3-3 tie game, Washington’s Ralph Miller came to bat against Giants pitcher Hugh McQuillen, who had been called on by John McGraw to relieve Art Nehf. McQuillen was a 14-game winner during the regular season, and he had been given the win in the series’ Game 3 four days earlier despite leaving the game in the fourth inning.

Miller was a utility infielder thrust into this critical moment because Senators manager Bucky Walters opted for a pinch hitter for starting third baseman Tommy Taylor as his team trailed 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth.

Now, with the game a 3-3 tie, Miller faced the most important moment of his obscure baseball life. Joe Judge, who had singled off Nehf with one out, sat at first base as the potential Series winning run.

During the regular season, Miller had hit safely just twice in 15 official at bats. His entire major league career consisted of that plus parts of the 1920 and 1921 seasons.

This was his opportunity to redeem all the frustration contained in that slim resume.

Miller took a first-pitch ball from McQuillen, then swung with all his might. But all he could manage was a simple ground ball to Giants shortstop Travis Jackson. One of the most reliable glovemen of his era, Jackson had no problem turning the ground ball into an inning-ending 6-4-3 double play.

The 1924 World Series would in short order become a classic. But not because of anything Ralph Miller did. When he came up, the Senators had an 83 percent chance of winning. When Miller failed to beat the throw to Giants first baseman George Kelly, those odds fell to dead even 50 percent.

11. Game 7, October 30, 2019. Washington Nationals at Houston Astros

Howie Kendrick vs. Will Harris. Change in Championship Probability: 32.9 percent

By the sixth inning of the concluding game of the 2019 World Series, the Washington Nationals were in serious trouble. Astros ace Zack Greinke had shut out the Nats on just one base hit and one walk, and he was successfully nursing a 2-0 lead.

Even better from Houston’s standpoint, Greinke had not yet burned through 70 pitches. He seemed capable of continuing his domination for at least a few more innings.

As the top of the seventh dawned, the home team’s chance of winning the game and by extension the Series approached 80 percent. Then, very suddenly, everything changed, both for Greinke and the Astros.

Greinke retired Washington’s first batter, Adam Eaton, on an infield grounder. Then on a 1-0 count Greinke missed over the middle of the plate with a fast ball to Anthony Rendon, who deposited it in the Crawford boxes in left. When Greinke followed that by walking Juan Soto, Astros manager A.J. Hinch made what seemed at the time to be the safe choice, replacing Greinke with Will Harris.

Now trailing 2-1, the prospects of a successful Nationals comeback still lagged below 40 percent. But Kendrick, a 35-year-old 14-year veteran in the game as Washington’s designated hitter, was about to change that percentage drastically.

Kendrick swung over Harris’ first pitch, an off-speed breaking ball, then sent Harris next pitch fading deep toward the right field corner. The ball carried just far enough to bang off the bottom of the foul pole for a two-run home run and a 3-2 Washington lead.

By himself, Kendrick had swung the likelihood of a Nats’ Series victory by nearly 33 percent, from just 32 percent to 65 percent. With a corps of Nats relievers shutting down the Astros through their final three at bats, Washington won its first World Series since 1924.

10. Game 7, October 22, 1975. Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox

Joe Morgan vs. Jim Burton. Change in Championship Probability: 33.84 percent

Far and away the flagship memory from the 1975 World Series is Carlton Fisk’s 12th inning home run that won Game 6 for the Boston Red Sox.

It was powerfully dramatic television, and certainly meaningful. But in the context of deciding the outcome of the World Series, Fisk’s home run merely ensured that there would be a seventh game…something that might have happened anyway that night.

Statistically the Series’ most meaningful moments all occurred one night later, and collectively they led to a 4-3 Cincinnati Reds victory.

The most pivotal of all unfolded during the ninth inning of that decisive game. The Red Sox had jumped out to an early 3-0 lead, only to see Cincinnati rally. Pete Rose’s seventh inning hit tied the game at 3-3. More meaningfully, the succession of taut innings had taxed Boston manager Darrell Johnson’s bullpen close to its breaking point.

He had three front-line relievers: Diego Segui, Dick Drago and Roger Moret. But Drago had worked three innings the previous night, Johnson had already called on Moret, and he opted to keep Segui for  a potential save situation.

Almost by default, then, the ninth inning choice fell to left-hander Jim Burton. A rookie, Burton had pitched in 29 games in 1975, with a 2.89 ERA but only one save.

Thrust into that pressure-packed ninth inning cauldron, Burton faced what was statistically a literal 50-50 proposition. Two walks and two groundouts did not materially move that calculus, but did bring up Joe Morgan in a decisive moment.

Burton may not have been the guy the Red Sox hoped to entrust such a moment to, but Morgan would have been at or near the top of Reds manager Sparky Anderson’s list. Coming off a regular season that would earn him his first of two successive Most Valuable Player Awards, Morgan had batted .327 with league leading percentages in on base average (.456) and OPS (.974).

Burton got a 1-2 count on Morgan, then threw him a breaking ball that Morgan managed to flare into short center. It was hardly hard contact, but it fell safely in front of center fielder Fred Lynn as Ken Griffey – running on contact with two out – scored the go-ahead run.

When Morgan stood in, the prospects of a Reds’ victory were almost exactly 50 percent. As Griffey scored and Morgan stood at first, those odds had swung to nearly 84 percent. When When McEnany retired the Red Sox in order in the bottom of the ninth, the Series win was clinched.

9. Game 7, October 26, 1997. Cleveland Indians at Florida Marlins

Edgar Renteria vs. Charles Nagy. Change in Championship Probability: 34.28 percent

There have been 40 seventh and deciding games in World Series history, but only five of those 40 ratcheted their drama beyond the requisite nine innings. All five – the Series of 1912, 1924, 1997, 2001 and 2016 — contained moments that rank among the 25 most decisive in Series history.

The 1997 World Series was unprecedented because for the first time team that did not win its division or league emerged from the playoff process to compete for the championship. The Florida Marlins had won 92 games for manager Jim Leyland but finished a distant second to the perennial NL East champion Atlanta Braves.

But they surprised the Braves in six games in the NLCS, earning the right to play the Indians.

Behind Jaret Wright, the Indians held a 2-0 lead most of that October evening. But when Bobby Bonilla tapped Wright for leadoff home run in the seventh, Indians manager Mike Hargrove went to his bullpen. Then with one out in the ninth and runners at first and third Craig Counsell lined deep enough to right field to get the tying run home.

In the bottom of the 10th, Florida put runners on first and second with two out, but Charles Nagy – summoned by Hargrove for a rare relief appearance – coaxed an inning ending fly ball out of Moises Alou.

After Jay Powell set down the Indians in order in the top of the 11th, Florida went to work trying to end the game. Bobby Bonilla slipped a single past Nagy into center field, and one out later Tony Fernandez’ fumble of a Counsell ground ball sent Bonilla around to third base.

Fernandez’ throw home on Devon White’s ground ball retired Bonilla for the second out, and left the issue up to Renteria. The Indians had survived a Florida threat in the bottom of the ninth in addition to retiring Bonilla at the plate.

But Cleveland’s luck was about to run out. In that two-out situation, Renteria took a strike then punched a clean single past Nagy into center field as Counsell raced home with the run that gave Florida the championship.

8. Game 7, October 13, 1960. New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates

Yogi Berra vs. Roy Face. Change in Probability: 34.32 percent.

To most fans, the seventh game of the 1960 World Series is all about Bill Mazeroski’s concluding home run. That moment is big enough to deserve its own entry on this list. But it was hardly the only turning point.

Three innings earlier, Yankee outfielder Yogi Berra provided a moment that, if not for subsequent events, might easily have made Berra the Series hero.

That moment occurred during  what has become the much-overlooked sixth inning of that seventh game at Forbes Field. The home-town Pirates carried a 4-1 lead into that inning, a circumstance that equated to an 87 percent probability of a Series-clinching victory. It would not be that simple.

Pirate ace Vern Law, already a two-game Series winner, had pitched well to that point, holding the Yankees to just three hits. One was a Bill Skowron home run. But when Law opened the sixth by surrendering a base hit to Bobby Richardson and walking Tony Kubek, Pirates manager Danny Murtaugh got nervous.

With 12 outs remaining to be gotten, Murtaugh elected to pull Law in favor of his closer, Elroy Face. With 24 saves in 114 innings as well as a 2.90 ERA, the move made some sense. Face had made eight regular season appearances of three innings or more, and he had not pitched in three days, so he was well-rested.

But form does not always hold. After retiring Roger Maris on an infield pop, Face surrendered a run-producing ground ball single to mickey Mantle that found its way between shortstop and second.

That made the score 4-2, and brought up Berra with one out and runners at first and third.

The percentages still strongly favored the Pirates by a margin of 70 percent. But Berra was not a percentages guy. He took a strike, then pulled a drive down the right field line that wrapped around the foul pole for a three-run home run.

Suddenly the Yankees, who had trailed 4-1 moments earlier, led 5-4. The 70 percent prospect of Pittsburgh victory morphed into a 64 percent likelihood of a Yankee win.

It was the first of several lead changes that afternoon. The others would be even more memorable.

7. Game 7, October 10, 1924. New York Giants at Washington Senators

Bucky Harris vs. Virgil Barnes. Change in Championship Probability: 35.2 percent

The previously cited huge plays by Hugh McQuillen and Earl McNeely (entries 24 and 12) would have meant little to the outcome of the 1924 Series had not Bucky Harris already come through at the Series’ most meaningful moment.

Harris was the 27-year-old first-year manager of the Senators, and he doubled as the team’s second baseman. A competent but not great batsman, Harris would go on to a Hall of Fame managerial career that would see him compile more than 2,000 victories with the Senators,  Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox  and Tigers.

In 1924, though, Harris was a rookie manager whose lineup featured a light-hitting second baseman – himself. Still, he was enjoying a good World Series that would see him bat .333 with seven RBIs.

The Senators faced desperate times entering the bottom of the eighth inning that October day, and they needed a break.  Trailing 3-1, Nemo Leibold had pinch hit a one-out double, and Muddy Ruel singled him to third base before pinch hitter Bennie Tate walked.

With the bases loaded, Earl McNeely failed to produce, lifting only a pop fly to very short left. With two out, that left the issue up to Harris.

He stood in against Virgil Barnes, the Giants’ starter and a 16-game winner for John McGraw during the regular season. Harris had been the only Senator to handle Barnes that afternoon, homering for his team’s only run and then singling.

What happened in that bases loaded, two out situation eerily presaged McNeely’s decisive lucky bounce of four innings later. Harris bounced Barnes’ first pitch for what looked like a routine third out to Lindstrom at third. But the ball appeared to hit a pebble just before the Giants fielder reached for it, caroming over his head and skipping into left field for a bad hop single as Leibold and Ruel scored the game’s tying runs.

For such a thing to happen once was freakish divine intervention. For it to happen twice in four innings could only mean the Senators were destined to win…which on McNeely’s bad hopper four innings later they did.

6. Game 7, October 10, 1968. Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals

Jim Northrup vs. Bob Gibson. Change in Championship Probability: 35.92 percent

Through six games, the Detroit Tigers had given the defending champion St. Louis Cardinals all they could handle, and come away with an even split.

Now, in the seventh and concluding game, the Tigers faced their most daunting challenge yet: Bob Gibson.

Itemizing Gibson’s dominance in1968 is fairly easy…just look at the record. During the regular season he was 22-9 with a record 1.12 ERA. Gibson gave up just 20 earned runs in those nine losses, his team supporting him with just 12 runs. Between May 12 and May 28 Gibson went 0-4 despite a 1.87 ERA.

He also led the league in strikeouts with 268, piling those up across 304 innings and 28 complete games.

If anything, Gibson had been ever better against the Tigers. In Game 1, he shut them out 4-0 on five hits, striking out a Series record 17. Four days later, Gibson pitched a complete game 10-1 win, allowing just five hits and striking out 10 more.

Through six innings of the seventh game, Gibson allowed only one hit, walked nobody and struck out six.

But if Gibson was his same old self, so was the Cardinal offense, held equally at bay by Tiger pitcher Mickey Lolich. So the game moved scoreless into the seventh where, at least at the outset, Gibson’s performance was as dominant s ever.

He got Mickey Stanley looking to lead off, then retired Al Kaline on an easy grounder to third.  It was his 10th consecutive Tiger victim. But Norm Cash worked a full count, then got just enough of a Gibson pitch to loop it in front of Maris in right field for a single. The next batter, Willie Horton, did something the Tigers had not accomplished against Gibson all Series; he backed up a hit with another hit, moving Cash into scoring position.

That put the spotlight on Northrup, a capable but not exceptional bat in his third full season as a Tiger outfielder. He sent a fly ball into medium-short center. But in his haste to make a shoestring catch or at least retire Cash at home, Cardinals center fielder Curt Flood overran the ball, which skidded past him into deep center field as Cash and Horton both scored.

With Lolich doing a Gibson impersonation, those two runs would be all the Tigers needed…although they’d soon add a third when Bill Freehan followed Northrup’s triple with a double of his own.

When Northrup stepped in, that two on, two out, seventh inning scenario gave the road team a 49 percent chance of winning the game and the Series. As he stood on third, the odds of that occurrence had been punched all the way up to 85 percent.

The Tigers eventually won 4-1.

5. Game 7, October 13, 1960. New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates

Bill Mazeroski vs. Ralph Terry. Change in Championship Probability: 36.74 percent.

Mazeroski’s home run, still the only seventh-game walk-off blast in Series history, is so iconic, so firmly cemented in baseball lore, that it seems awkward that it only ranks fifth on the list of Series-turning moments. The answer lies in the workings of math.

Although the home run finalized the Pirates’ prospects of winning at 100 percent – can’t do better than that – Mazeroski’s fete is slightly penalized by the fact that Pittsburgh’s situation was already relatively advantageous.

In fact, as the Pirates second baseman stood in against Terry to open the bottom of the ninth that afternoon, his team already had about a 64 percent chance of winning the game, and by extension the Series.

Two circumstances drove that percentage likelihood of victory so heavily toward Pittsburgh at that precise moment. The first was that the Pirates were the home team, meaning they batted last. If they scored a run by any fashion in the ninth, the game and Series were over.

And even if the game moved into extra innings, home field dictated that the Pirates would always have the last shot at glory.

The second critical factor working against the status of Mazeroski’s blast – at least in statistical lore – was that he was the leadoff hitter. Had the exact same thing unfolded with two out in the bottom of the ninth, the numbers more strongly align with public perception.

But numbers, like life, aren’t fair. Maz’s game-winner has to settle for a top five slot.

4. Game 7, November 2, 2016. Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Indians

Rajai Davis vs. Aroldis Chapman. Change in Championship Probability: 39.04 percent.

If you were a Cubs fan in the fall of 2016, staring down the throat of 108 years of World Series frustration, only one scenario was plausible: The Cubs would grab a big lead late in the seventh game, then blow it.

The only question was how, and the answer turned out to be Rajai Davis.

Just as a refresher, the Cubs led that seventh game in 2016  6-3 as the bottom of the eighth inning dawned. Statistically, that translated to a 90 percent prospect of a Cubs victory.

Those prospects improved to 95 percent when Jon Lester retired the first two batters he faced, Francisco Lindor and Mike Napoli, on a groundout and a called third strike.

But when Jose Ramirez singled, Cubs manager Joe Maddon turned to his well-worn ace closer, Aroldis Chapman, for the final four outs. But Chapman, who had thrown 62 pitches to close out Games 5 and 6, needed time the situation didn’t give him to work up to his best stuff.

In the interim, Brandon Guyer lined a double to center, scoring Ramirez. That brought up Davis, whose home run just clearing the wall in right rallied the Indians into a 6-6 tie.

When Davis came to the plate, the Cubs still possessed an 86 percent likelihood of winning the game and Series. As he touched home plate, that likelihood had fallen below 50 percent.

Since the Cubs did in fact come back to win the Series with a 10th inning rally, Davis holds a distinction, although not an especially desirable one. Statistically, his homer was the most consequential hit in World Series history not produced by the member of a winning team.

3. Game 7, November 4, 2001. New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks

Tony Womack vs. Mariano Rivera. Change in Championship Probability: 49.75 percent.

So many aspects favored the New York Yankees entering the bottom of the ninth inning of  the seventh game of the 2001 World Series. They led 2-1, they had the best closer in history, Mariano Rivera, on the mound, ad they were  the three-time defending champions.

But Mark Grace  led off with a base hit and Damian Miller reached on Riovera’s throwing error. One failed sacrifice bunt later, Rivera stood in against leadoff hitter Tony Womack.

In many respects, Womack was the ideal candidate for such a pressurized situation. Although powerless – his career-high of seven home runs came in 2000 – he was a veteran of five full major league seasons who knew how to handle a bat. In 2001 Womack had batted .266 for Arizona, in the process stealing 28 bases.

His Series work had been less successful: a .226 average. But at least Womack had tasted some success that night, singling in the seventh inning. In fact it had been Womack’s hit – coming in what at the time was a 1-1 tie — that prompted Yankee manager Joe Torre to remove starter Roger Clemens.

With runners at first and second and needing a base hit, his plan against Rivera’s notoriously challenging cutter would be simple: shorten up and make contact.

Brenly tried to help Womack in his efforts by substituting Midre Cummings as a pinch runner for the leadfooted Miller at second.

Womack took a cutter inside, then another. The next pitch was a high fastball called a strike by plate umpire Steve Rippley. Womack fought off a cutter to run the count to 2-2, then looked for Rivera to come back inside as he had done on the first two pitches.

Rivera accommodated and this time Womack turned on the fastball, sending it screaming down the right field line. Cummings scored easily from second while Bell advanced to third with the Series winning run and Womack pulled into second.

With that one swing, the prospects of an Arizona victory pivoted from just 35 percent to – first and third,  tie game, just one out – an imposing 85 percent.

Seconds later Luis Gonzalez would win fame, immortality and the championship with the hit that is best recalled today. But it was Tony Womack who truly swung the odds in Arizona’s favor with the third most decisive play outcome in World Series history.

2. Game 8, October 16, 1912. New York Giants at Boston Red Sox

Tris Speaker vs. Christy Mathewson. Change in Championship Probability: 50.52 percent.

In entry No. 21, Fred Merkle’s heroics during the 10th inning of the eighth game of the 1912 World Series were spelled out. Merkle’s base hit off Smoky Joe Wood sent Red Murray home with the run that gave New York a  2-1 lead and moved the Giants within three Christy Mathewson outs of a World Series victory.

On this day, however, there was room for more than one hero. All that hero, Tris  Speaker, needed was the heavy-handed intervention of fate.

Boston’s first hitter was Clyde Engle, a light hitting reserve tasked to pinch hit for Sox pitcher Smoky Joe Wood.

Engle was the best of Red Sox manager Bill Carrigan’s few bench options. A. 234 hitter in occasional regular season duty, he had batted just twice previously in the World Series. He did have one glorious moment, a two-run producing pinch hit double in the second inning of Game 5, but by then the Sox already were down five, and they would lose 5-2 to Rube Marquard.

Engle managed nothing more conspicuous than a medium fly ball to center. But the usually reliable Giants outfielder Fred Snodgrass inexplicably dropped it, allowing the fortunate Engle to plant the potential tying run at second base.

As much as one can do so, Snodgrass redeemed himself on the next play, racing back to snag Harry Hooper’s line drive to deep center. Engle, assuming the ball would not be caught and intent on scoring the tying run, had not tagged up, so he could not advance when Snodgrass did make the play. The next hitter, Steve Yerkes, walked, bringing up Speaker, Boston’s most feared  hitter.

At the outset of a Hall of Fame career, Speaker had batted .383 for Boston,  with league-leading totals in doubles (53), home runs (10) and on base average (.464). This time, however, he managed nothing more useful than a foul pop along the first base line.

But Merkle, New York’s first baseman, seemed initially confused as to whether he or catcher Chief Meyers would make the play. Seeing Merkle hesitate, Meyers dashed for the ball but could not reach it.

The Giants would rue giving Speaker a second chance. He lined Mathewson’s next pitch into right field for a base hit, Engle coming around to score the tying run and Yerkes stopping at third.

That hit changed the victory prospects from 66 percent in New York’s favor to 85 percent in Boston’s favor. Larry Gardner, the next hitter, carried a fly ball deep enough to right field to end the drama.

1. Game 7, October 13, 1960. New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates

Hal Smith vs. Jim Coates. Change in Championship Probability: 63.62 percent

The 1960 World Series is obviously remembered for Bill Mazeroski’s home run. More than six decades later, it remains the only walk-off homer to decide a seventh World Series game.

In fact that game yields three of the eight most decisive moments in World Series history: Mazeroski at 5 and Yogi Berra at 8. Statistically, though, Mazeroski’s blast was not the Series’ most pivotal play. That came, anonymously in retrospect, one inning earlier off the bat of an obscure part-time catcher.

The Yankees appeared to have a firm grasp on the Series as that eighth inning opened. They led 7-4 with veteran Bobby Shantz cruising into his sixth inning of what to that point had been scoreless relief.

But pinch hitter Gino Cimoli opened the eighth with a bloop single in front of Roger Maris in right field, and when Bill Virdon followed with a bad-hop single off the throat of Yankee shortstop Tony Kubek, Dick Groat came to the plate representing the tying run.

Groat grounded a single through short, scoring Cimoli and ousting Shantz in favor of right-hander Jim Coates.

Coates got two quick outs, the first on a sacrifice bunt and the second on Rocky Nelson’s fly to right. He nearly retired the side, but Roberto Clemente reached on a weak grounder between first and second that scored Virdon.

The score now stood 7-6 with two out, and Smith next up. The backup to Smoky Burgess. Smith had batted .295 during the regular season with 11 home runs in 258 at bats, so he had some power. Smith had taken over for Burgess in the top of the eighth; this was to be his first and only at bat.

With the tying run at third and the go-ahead run at first, Smith worked the count to 2-2, then got a belt-high fastball and leaned on in. When the ball cleared the left field wall for a three-run home run, giving Pittsburgh a 9-7 lead entering the ninth, Smith fairly pranced around the bases. “I thought I’d won the World Series,” he said.

About that, and that only, Smith was wrong. The Yankees tied the game in the ninth, setting the stage for Mazeroski. From a statistical standpoint, however, Smith’s home run constituted the greater turning point.