MLB 2022 Preview: X-Factor for each AL West team
The unsung hero. The innings eater. The difference-maker. The X-factor.
The X-factor … every team has one. The guy that every fandom knows about that makes the national audience scratch their head when he balls out on national television. The X-factor can sometimes be the engine of the team.
X-factor conditions
- My very loose definition of an X-factor: Any player whose team’s performance would be greatly improved if that player’s peak performance is sustained throughout an entire season
- I have eliminated players returning from significant injury. For example, obviously, the Houston Astros would benefit immensely from a full season of Justin Verlander since his production was zero last year.
- Players that have been noted in serious trade talks have also been excluded. I want the X-factor to still be on the roster come Opening Day.
Los Angeles Angels: Starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval
Ohtani is the obvious answer here. I don’t think we will ever see a season quite like last year, but a starting rotation is comprised of five players, not one. Barring another year in which Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout both miss the back half of the season, the team’s offense will be serviceable. It won’t be the end of the world if Ohtani only hits 25 home runs instead of 45+. The Achilles heel for the Angels ever since Mike Trout joined the Angels in 2011 is the lack of starting pitching depth. The Angels have always preferred spending heavily on hitting rather than pitching and have a suspect record at developing internal options.
Patrick Sandoval may be the first one in a while to buck the trend. The former Astros farmhand who came over in the Martin Maldonado swap has been a welcome surprise for Angels fans desperate for quality arms. Sandoval, whose opportunity in the rotation came after a public transportation snafu in the Bay Area, has taken the opportunity and ran with it. Last season, Sandoval pitched to a 3.62 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a 4.03 FIP.
If the Angels want any chance of competing, they have to alleviate some pressure on Ohtani. On the pitching side, if newly acquired Noah Syndergaard can produce throughout the season, the Angels pitching woes may finally end.
Seattle Mariners: Starting pitcher Logan Gilbert
Talent galore means plenty of options. My philosophy has always been pitching first. That’s mainly based on years of having to watch a subpar Angels pitching staff year after year.
How Robbie Ray handles the pressure of a new nine-figure contract will certainly be worth keeping tabs on, but Logan Gilbert, the long and lanky Florida native, is the cream of the crop as far as young pitching for the Mariners farm system.
Gilbert has shown signs of a breakout season but had a wildly inconsistent 2021. Gilbert had a strong first half with a 3.51 ERA/0.92 WHIP but a 5.48/1.32 in the second half, mostly due to an awful August where his ERA ballooned to 9.
If Gilbert can harness his long lanky frame and produce throughout an entire season now that he has a full season of Major League experience under his belt, Seattle will have quietly built a formidable trio to spear the rotation with Ray, Gilbert, and Chris Flexen.
Houston Astros: Outfielder Jake Meyers
By the time this season is over, this Astros will quietly have gotten old. Jose Altuve is entering his age 32 season. Yuli Gurriel is already 37. Michael Brantley is 34 and played most of last year splitting time in left field and DH. Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander are both coming off injuries. Couple all of that with the expected departure of Carlos Correa post-lockout, this leaves the Astros looking for offensive output elsewhere.
It’s nearly impossible to judge a player with less than 50 games and 150 at-bats, but Astros fans must be encouraged with what they saw from Jake Meyers in 2021. In 49 games, Meyers had a .260/.323/.438 slash line and accumulated a 1.2 WAR. Meyers was poised to be a major postseason contributor until he crashed into the wall trying to chase down a fly ball in Game 4 of the ALDS.
Although Meyers will be out if the season starts on time (hold your breath everyone) because of that injury, consistent production out of the center-field spot will be key for Houston in a post-Springer era.
Texas Rangers: Starting pitcher Spencer Howard
When the Rangers spent half a billion dollars on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien combined, my reaction (along with the rest of the baseball world) was, “Oh that’s cute. Their rotation consists of… someone help me out here.”
Well if the risky endeavor is going to have any chance of paying off, at least in the short term, the “get Jon Gray out of Coors Field, then he’s a bona fide ace” narrative will have to be true. More importantly though, what version of Spencer Howard will the Rangers get? Will they get the former Phillies’ top prospect with frontline starter potential, or will his previous shoulder injury resurface and prove too much to handle?
Jeff Wilson of Baseball America notes the dip in velocity and lack of durability for Howard down the stretch of the 2021 season. True, it’s hard to judge in just 25 appearances if the 6.83 ERA is just a phase that every rookie big-league pitcher goes through or a sign of something far more concerning. With the starting pitching market already thin once the market reopens and plenty of teams still looking for help, the Rangers may have no choice but to bet on Howard if they want to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2016.
Oakland A’s: Relief pitcher A.J. Puk
Regardless of whether the fire sale goes through in Oakland, it’s put up or shut up time for A.J. Puk.
The Bay Area’s dream of Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk as a two-headed monster is over after Luzardo was dealt to the Miami Marlins in the Starling Marte deal. While it’s too early to say where Puk’s career ultimately will end up, Oakland certainly would have wished his development to be a little further along than 24.2 innings of 4.74 ERA at the big league level entering his age-27 season.
With Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas all swirling in trade speculation before the players got locked out, Puk may be asked to be the number two guy behind James Kaprelian, who has been a welcome surprise since coming over from the Yankees.
Next. Potential destinations for every Oakland trade asset. dark
If one, two, or even all three of Oakland’s arms are wearing different uniforms come Opening Day, Puk and Kaprelian may be asked to lead a rotation much sooner than expected.