MLB free agency: The best remaining free agent starting pitchers
Entering this offseason, the top free agents were primarily position players with Carlos Correa and Corey Seager widely considered the two best. Despite not having a true superstar reaching free agency in their prime, the starting pitching class in MLB free agency has done pretty well for itself. Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman have all managed to secure multi-year deals topping $100 million. Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray, and Justin Verlander all made deals guaranteeing $50 million or more, the latter after only pitching six innings in the last two seasons combined.
With many of the top starters already locked into new contracts, there are only a few options left in MLB free agency.
Any team looking to sign one of the eight best remaining starters will undoubtedly be looking at their recent track record but will likely also be evaluating their predictive stats like xFIP and SIERA.
The Inning-Eaters: Zack Greinke and Tyler Anderson
Of the top free agents that remain, Zack Greinke and Tyler Anderson pitched the most innings with 171 and 167, respectively. In 2021, both had excellent command (2.0 BB/9 or lower), below average strikeout numbers (7.2 K/9 or lower), and trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark (1.5 HR/9 or more). Greinke’s 4.16 ERA topped Anderson’s 4.53 while both saw those numbers rise as they struggled at the end of the season.
For Anderson, 2021 was the second highest innings total of his career. For Greinke, the active leader in innings pitched, it was the 13th time he had pitched at least 170 innings in a season. Advanced stats suggest Anderson was a little unlucky (4.37 FIP) and Greinke was fairly lucky with (4.71 FIP). Greinke has spoken in the past on his desire to keep his FIP as low as possible and he’s likely aware that that good luck cannot be relied on. Predictive stats like SIERA (4.54 for Greinke and 4.57 for Anderson) and xFIP (4.21 for Greinke and 4.60 for Anderson) show that if they pitch at about the same level in 2022 as last season, both are likely back-of-the-rotation pieces.
The Health Concerns: Johnny Cueto and Michael Pineda
Over the last four seasons, Johnny Cueto has pitched 247 innings and Michael Pineda has pitched 282. Both have had Tommy John surgery during that span and have had multiple trips to the injured list for both arm and leg issues. In 2021, each appeared in 22 games, starting 21 and pitched around 110 innings.
For the 36-year-old Cueto, 2021 was arguably his most productive season since 2016. He compiled a 4.08 ERA and a league average 100 ERA+. For Pineda, 2021 was his third straight above-average season and his 3.62 ERA and 117 ERA+ were the best for any season in which he pitched more than 100 innings. Predictive stats see them both as 4.30-4.40 ERA pitchers moving forward, good enough for a guaranteed Major League contract. Any team signing them, however, should be prepared with a contingency plan.
The Unproven: Yusei Kikuchi and Kwang Hyun Kim
There are not a lot of similarities between Kikuchi and Kim other than they are both left-handed starters. Kikuchi throws a mid-90s fastball and strikes out better than a batter an inning while Kim rarely reaches 90 on the radar gun and sees many more balls in play. Since coming to MLB in 2019, Kikuchi has steadily improved and finished the 2021 season with a career-best 4.41 ERA. Kim, on the other hand, has produced excellent results with a 2.97 ERA over his combined 145.2 IP in two MLB seasons.
The interesting thing about both Kikuchi and Kim is when you look a little deeper into the predictive statistics, they are trending in opposite directions. Kim’s peripheral statistics are demonstrably worse than his in-game results. His career 4.22 FIP is significantly higher than his ERA and his predictive stats from 2021 are the worst of any of the eight pitchers in this article with a 4.85 SIERA and 4.70 xFIP. In contrast, Kikuchi had a 4.17 SIERA and 3.85 xFIP in 2021, suggesting his future production will be improved. Further confounding for those evaluating Kikuchi is that he has produced a career 4.97 ERA despite pitching in one of the best home environments for pitchers according to Statcast Park Factors. Teams might have more questions than answers about future performance from both of these players.
The Cream of the Crop: Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Rodón
Former top prospects Clayton Kershaw and Carlos Rodón have had very different careers. Over the last 14 seasons, Kershaw has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball and his career 2.49 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, and 6.8 H/9 are the best of all active pitchers. Rodón, however, had never been able to produce anything better than an average season until 2021, his seventh in the big leagues. He was so bad in 2020 that the White Sox non-tendered him following the season and signed him to a one-year deal.
The past is the past, as they say, and now Rodón is the more coveted starter. Kershaw lost two months of the regular season due to elbow injuries and was unable to participate in postseason play due to a forearm issue. Those issues, along with retirement rumors, have lowered Kershaw’s stock.
While Rodón also suffered a shoulder injury in 2022 and was limited to 132.2 IP, the 29-year-old turned heads with his 2.37 ERA, 12.6 K/9, and 183 ERA+. Rodón is said to be pursuing a multi-year contract.
Rodón bested Kershaw in nearly every statistic in 2021 but Kershaw still produced a quite valuable 3.55 ERA and 3.4 fWAR in 121.2 IP. He appears to have been unlucky (3.00 FIP) and his predictive stats are actually quite similar to Rodón’s. Rodón had the edge in SIERA (2.96 v. 3.10) and Kershaw had the edge in xFIP (2.87 v. 3.17). Kershaw turns 34 next month and, when healthy, is still producing at a high rate.
Next. 3 potential landing spots for Yusei Kikuchi. dark
Will teams prefer the known track record of Kershaw or will they choose the younger Rodon in hopes that he turned over a new leaf in 2021?