Examining the Hall of Fame case for Yankees, White Sox, Dodgers pitcher Tommy John

Tommy John is, perhaps, only second to Cy Young in historical names of pitchers used by everyone in the modern era. However, in the case of John, it’s not in a good way. After all, the “Tommy John surgery” was named after John when he tore his UCL in his elbow and he had an experimental surgery done in late 1974 while John was with the Los Angeles Dodgers to try to repair it.

Before the surgery was performed by Dr. Frank Jobe, a pitcher who had the injury in the past was done. They’d never pitch again. Jobe thought that the chance of it working would be 1 percent. Now, the success rate of the surgery is around 90 percent.

John missed the entire 1975 season, but he pitched in 14 more seasons in the majors, retiring after the 1989 season at the age of 46. He ended his career by playing parts of 26 seasons in the majors from 1963 through 1989, most famously with the New York Yankees (eight seasons), the Chicago White Sox (seven seasons), and the Los Angeles Dodgers (six seasons).

But does he have a resumé that warrants induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Tommy John has a borderline case for the Baseball Hall of Fame

When you just look at the basic stats for Tommy John, you’d think that the former pitcher for the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Chicago White Sox should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame … and perhaps he should be.

He went 288-231 in his career with a 3.34 ERA. He was a four-time All-Star and three of the selections came after his surgery. He also had four top 10 Cy Young Award finishes in his career and all four of them (1977-1980) came after his surgery as well.

But you have to consider that it came in 26 seasons so, if you’re a fan of wins, that’s an average of 11-9 per season. His ERA+ was also only 111. For comparison among modern pitchers, Jered Weaver, Carlos Carrasco, Zack Wheeler, and Gio González have a career ERA+ of 111.

For WAR, John’s career WAR is 61.6. For comparison, Hall of Famer Early Wynn had a WAR of 61.1 and Juan Marichal had a WAR of new 62.9. But Wynn did it in three fewer seasons and Marichal did it in 10 fewer seasons.

The person that will, perhaps, most help Tommy John’s case for the Baseball Hall of Fame is contemporary Jim Kaat.

Kaat was just inducted into the Hall of Fame this offseason via the Golden Days Era Committee. Kaat pitched in the majors for 25 years (one year less than John) from 1959 through 1983. He had a very similar record as he went 283-237 with a 3.45 ERA and an ERA+ of 108. His WAR, however, was 50.5.

So if Kaat gets in, Tommy John could possibly get into the Hall of Fame as well.

John was on the Hall of Fame ballot for all 15 years that he was eligible from 1995 through 2009 and the most votes he received was on his final ballot, when he got 31.7 percent of the vote.

But since then, he has been able to get on the ballot of the Era Committee as he was on the Modern Baseball Era Committee for the Class of 2020. He received three or fewer votes on that ballot. However, considering that Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller were both inducted from that ballot, John could see an increase in votes when they vote next time in December 2023 for the Class of 2024.