3 worst-case scenario outcomes for Miami Marlins in 2022

There are a lot of ways 2022 can be a breakout year for the Miami Marlins, but there are also three outcomes that would be devastating for the franchise.

The Miami Marlins have every intention of contending in 2022.

They have dominant pitching. They have plugged holes. Every indication is that they expect to make at least one more major signing. More money is being put into the roster. More young prospects are knocking on the door. If nothing else, they certainly expect to be much improved.

However, even with all the reasons to be optimistic about the Miami Marlins outlook right now, there is also plenty that could happen to change that sunny outlook in hurry. Things that could have fans changing their tune from “at long last” right back to “same-old, same-old” faster than a Sandy Alcantara fastball.

In short, there are some worst case scenario situations for the Marlins in 2022.

Before moving forward, let’s be clear about what isn’t being considered here. Starting with the elephant in the room, the MLB lockout. It goes without saying a season being lost to a labor dispute would be catastrophic, for Miami and for every other team in baseball. Same as it goes without saying how catastrophic it would be for the Marlins if Sandy trips down the steps of his new mansion next week and tears a knee ligament.

Assuming a 162-game season though that goes off with relative health for Miami’s existing stars, plenty can still go wrong. Three outcomes, three worst case scenarios, stand out as major hurdles for a team looking to change perceptions and continue down the path to Miami’s third championship.

What if the MLB playoffs aren’t expanded?

A key part of contending is being realistically in the race, and the best chance the Miami Marlins have of that happening is if the MLB playoff field is expanded. Obviously, that statement can be applied to every team in the league.  However the impact of that is far from equal. Whereas the Dodgers could probably give Mookie Betts and Walker Buehler most of September off and still make the playoffs, the Marlins are considered a dark horse for the postseason even if they do sign another big free agent once the lockout ends.

So what if the playoffs aren’t expanded?

Every fanbase likes to win, but I think it’s fair to call the South Florida market particularly win motivated. Especially when it comes to baseball. The new Miami Marlins regime has made major strides, and done a lot right in building this thing from the ground up. A deep farm system. A heavy emphasis on pitching. Lots of money into international development.

But the ghosts of fire sales past still linger, and the wounds are still deep. Football fans have decades of rosy memories. Miami Heat fans can point to decades of a winning culture and multiple championships. Even the Florida Panthers have suddenly transformed into a model of how to successfully build a competitive, entertaining team.

The Marlins have none of that to fall back upon. They have to win. Have to compete. That’s what will turn the tide at the gate, spark interest, and drive up revenues. That task is going to be monumentally harder if the NL playoff field stays at five teams. Forget being viewed as a top 4 team in the National League … most experts currently have the Marlins as just the fourth-best team in their division. By the way, the fifth-place team has one of the two best hitters in baseball on the roster.