3 worst-case scenario outcomes for Miami Marlins in 2022

There are a lot of ways 2022 can be a breakout year for the Miami Marlins, but there are also three outcomes that would be devastating for the franchise.

The Miami Marlins have every intention of contending in 2022.

They have dominant pitching. They have plugged holes. Every indication is that they expect to make at least one more major signing. More money is being put into the roster. More young prospects are knocking on the door. If nothing else, they certainly expect to be much improved.

However, even with all the reasons to be optimistic about the Miami Marlins outlook right now, there is also plenty that could happen to change that sunny outlook in hurry. Things that could have fans changing their tune from “at long last” right back to “same-old, same-old” faster than a Sandy Alcantara fastball.

In short, there are some worst case scenario situations for the Marlins in 2022.

Before moving forward, let’s be clear about what isn’t being considered here. Starting with the elephant in the room, the MLB lockout. It goes without saying a season being lost to a labor dispute would be catastrophic, for Miami and for every other team in baseball. Same as it goes without saying how catastrophic it would be for the Marlins if Sandy trips down the steps of his new mansion next week and tears a knee ligament.

Assuming a 162-game season though that goes off with relative health for Miami’s existing stars, plenty can still go wrong. Three outcomes, three worst case scenarios, stand out as major hurdles for a team looking to change perceptions and continue down the path to Miami’s third championship.

What if the MLB playoffs aren’t expanded?

A key part of contending is being realistically in the race, and the best chance the Miami Marlins have of that happening is if the MLB playoff field is expanded. Obviously, that statement can be applied to every team in the league.  However the impact of that is far from equal. Whereas the Dodgers could probably give Mookie Betts and Walker Buehler most of September off and still make the playoffs, the Marlins are considered a dark horse for the postseason even if they do sign another big free agent once the lockout ends.

So what if the playoffs aren’t expanded?

Every fanbase likes to win, but I think it’s fair to call the South Florida market particularly win motivated. Especially when it comes to baseball. The new Miami Marlins regime has made major strides, and done a lot right in building this thing from the ground up. A deep farm system. A heavy emphasis on pitching. Lots of money into international development.

But the ghosts of fire sales past still linger, and the wounds are still deep. Football fans have decades of rosy memories. Miami Heat fans can point to decades of a winning culture and multiple championships. Even the Florida Panthers have suddenly transformed into a model of how to successfully build a competitive, entertaining team.

The Marlins have none of that to fall back upon. They have to win. Have to compete. That’s what will turn the tide at the gate, spark interest, and drive up revenues. That task is going to be monumentally harder if the NL playoff field stays at five teams. Forget being viewed as a top 4 team in the National League … most experts currently have the Marlins as just the fourth-best team in their division. By the way, the fifth-place team has one of the two best hitters in baseball on the roster.

What if Jorge Alfaro or Lewis Brinson become a thing for the Miami Marlins?

No one can argue that the Miami Marlins didn’t give a fair shot to Jorge Alfaro or Lewis Brinson. Three years is an eternity in sports today, let alone four. Consequently, you’d be hard pressed to find a GM who wouldn’t have decided the time had come to upgrade the lineup spot held down by these two former Marlins.

But what if they actually get better after leaving Miami?

Brinson catching fire elsewhere would actually sting less of these two scenarios. Indeed, part of me kind of expects Brinson to simply develop into Cameron Maybin 2.0 over the next decade. A valuable role player/fourth outfielder type that is forever the answer to sports trivia questions in Miami and Milwaukee as a result of the Trade That Shall Not Be Named. He got every chance, and disappointed every time. It cost the organization nothing but pride to release him, and the best for both sides narrative tends to write itself in these cases. Still, fans would be forgiven for having some doubts about Miami’s ability to develop hitters if he does partially resurrect himself somewhere else.

However, it is really Alfaro taking off that would be a major blow to any thoughts about Miami Marlins organizational competency.

Consider what has transpired this offseason already. The Marlins gave up significant prospect capital to land Jacob Stallings. A fact that creates a whole new trade chart of ways to measure whether or not the right choice was made. Stallings has to arguably outperform Zach Thompson, Kyle Nicolas, and Connor Scott in addition to Alfaro to justify the move. And honestly, you have to throw in every free agent catcher here as well.

In terms of catching, that shouldn’t be that big of an ask. After all, Alfaro had more passed balls than a basketball team running the triangle offense last season- defense has nowhere to go but up for Miami behind the plate in 2022. But would it really, really shock anyone if Alfaro outhits Stallings? Like, significantly? As part of a loaded Padres lineup, it’s a real possibility. Especially with the universal DH looking like the lawn of the land now in MLB.

Even if he never catches an MLB game again, a 20-homer season for Alfaro would look really bad for Miami. And if that 20-homer season rivals what Miami’s own eventual DH produces, the team would look even worse. Almost as bad as this last scenario….