Atlanta Braves: The stats that show why Freddie Freeman should return
Long-time Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman has been the topic of conversation around baseball the past few days with multiple reports claiming there’s a “growing belief” the two parties will split.
And although both sides do not appear to be that far apart in asking price and length of contract, the longer this lockout goes, the more likely it is the relationship will reach its boiling point.
Freddie Freeman should have been locked up last offseason, and at the very least, his contract extension should have been a slam dunk immediately after the Atlanta Braves won the World Series in 2021.
But now, with nothing but time and uncertainty playing significant factors in the psyches of both parties, there is a very fair chance Freeman leaves the Braves.
If that be the case, I believe it to be one of the biggest missed opportunities in MLB history for a good organization like the Braves that has been calling quality shots for decades.
Freddie Freeman is objectively the best first baseman in baseball right now, and is right smack in the middle of his prime according to Statcast.
Freeman seems a lot older than 32 for how long he’s been around the league. But, despite his age being a concern for some in regards to a big contract extension, Statcast articulates that Freddie is indeed still in his prime groove as a hitter. Some numbers may also suggest he’s getting better.
In 2021, Freeman saw 2,688 pitches. In only two prior seasons did he see more pitches. But in 2021, he was able to put 495 balls in play, which set a career-high for the former MVP. So, he did not see an extraordinary amount of pitches in relation to prior seasons, and still he was able to put bat on ball on more pitches than in any other year of his MLB tenure.
So, he’s not a big strikeout guy, right? That’s what a stat like that would suggest.
Correct … but there’s also another kicker to it.
Freeman’s strikeout percentage hit a career-low in 2019 when he posted an 18.4% K-rate. But then in 2020, he lowered it even more to a 14.1% K-rate, and then followed that up in a full 2021 season by posting a 15.4% K-rate.
Since Freeman has hit age 30, his strikeouts have regressed, which signifies his age is not messing with his bat speed and/or ability to catch up to pitches.
2020 also featured a career-high in walk rate for Freddie at 17.2%. Up until then, the highest walk rate he had posted in a season was 12.8% in 2016. He followed that performance up in 2021 with a more grounded walk rate that fit well with his overall career rate by posting a 12.2%.
Less strikeouts and the same amount of walks, pretty much. That is the trend.
What about hard contact and power?
Freeman barreled 57 pitches in 2021, according to Statcast. That was the second-highest number of barrels for him in a season with 58 in 2019 being the highest.
His max exit velocity hit 13.6 in 2021 as well, clocking in as the second-highest of his career.
Average exit velocity is where it gets interesting because even at age 31 and 32 in 2020 and 2021, Freddie posted his top two average exit velocities with a 92.4 in 2020 and 91.4 this past season.
The same deal happened with his hard hit percentage. In 2020, he went for a 54.2% hard hit percentage while in 2021, he went for a 46.1. Both setting career highs.
Not only is Freeman still making contact and getting on base, but the balls he’s putting in play are being hit hard with extra oomph behind them. The fact that his contact and hard hit numbers are progressing as he ages is amazing unto itself.
In expected batting average, much like his hard hit numbers, Freeman set career highs in his previous two seasons played with a .343 XBA in 2020 and a .320 XBA in 2021.
In expected weighted on-base average, he went for two of his top three averages in his career with a .466 in 2020 and .416 in 2021.
And for expected slugging percentage, we see the exact same thing where he set two of his top three percentages in 2020 and 2021 by going for .663 in ’20 and .583 in ’21.
Freeman is making more contact, getting on base more, hitting the ball harder, and turning that solid contact into tangible run production better than he has in years past outside of a few pieces of anecdotal evidence.
This is a player at the top of his game who can even take it further in the coming years. If he were to regress in any sort of way, it would be statistically irregular by virtually every metric out there.
That is why the Braves’ hesitancy to lock him up baffles the mind.
Next. 4 possible replacements for Freddie Freeman. dark
Hopefully, a very well-run team in the Braves will pull a contract out at the last second and keep the face of its franchise in Atlanta for the rest of his career. The number certainly say the risk is worth it.