3 Miami Marlins droughts that will thankfully end in 2022

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The Miami Marlins might not make the playoffs this year, but they will end three long running franchise droughts.

Two years ago, the Miami Marlins did what nearly everyone outside of their organization would have told you was impossible at the start of the season: make the playoffs.

In doing so, that 2020 Marlins squad snapped a sixteen-year postseason drought that had been an anchor around the neck of the organization since 2003. Even in a pandemic shortened season, it was a huge moment for the franchise. With a ten-year string of losing seasons also brought to an end, it was truly a watershed moment.

Fast forward to 2022, the odds are long on the Miami Marlins returning to the playoffs this year. And not just because there might not even be an MLB season. The NL East features the defending World Series champion, the team with the reigning NL MVP, the team with the best player in the NL, and a team with an owner that looks poised to shatter spending records in an attempt to field a winner. It’s a lot for Miami to overcome, even if only one of those teams can reasonably claim to have a starting rotation as dominant as what the Marlins project to be working with this season.

However, that doesn’t mean this year’s Marlins squad won’t be ending some other long standing franchise slumps. Naturally, nothing mattered more to the perception that Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman might know what they are doing than ending those two slumps discussed above. But if 2022 doesn’t see a repeat of those, the front office will be able to point to these accomplishments as they load up to make a real run in 2023. Because ending these particular skids will unquestionably silence remaining doubters, and excite many a fan in the process.

Before diving in, let’s just be clear about what these are not: bold predictions. At least not outright. If the Miami Marlins do the minimum required to meet these benchmarks, all we’re talking about here is meaningful progress. Meaningful progress, and benchmarks that wouldn’t be worth getting excited about at all for many organizations in MLB. For the Marlins though, all of these are something that either hasn’t happened at all, or has just happened once, in at least ten seasons.

However, if these three barriers are blown past…then sure, I suppose you could label these as “bold predictions.”

Still, the minimum is all that’s being projected here. The 2022 Miami Marlins will turn heads and earn some well earned respect by doing three things fans haven’t seen in awhile, starting with…

(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

Four Miami Marlins pitchers will post double digit wins

One year ago, I actually did make a stab at some bold Miami Marlins predictions for 2021. They were, ummmm, all wrong. And the boldest, and most hilariously wrong, of those bold predictions concerned the club’s pitchers. My flawed take? That the 2006 record would fall, and six Marlins pitchers would win at least 10 games.

Consider my wings clipped in 2022. This year’s prediction: four pitchers will pull off that feat.

The last time that many members of a Miami Marlins pitching staff put together that many wins? That would be 2010, back when a Josh Johnson led staff helped keep Miami in contention all season long. That team won 80 games, the most recent Marlins team to do so. Hanley Ramirez‘s last All-Star effort and Giancarlo Stanton‘s debut certainly helped, but pitching was the engine that drove that 2010 club.

This 2022 rotation is built pretty similarly, relying on three established arms led by an unquestioned ace. Penciling in Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Trevor Rogers for at least 10 wins a piece is really more of a question of health than imagination. Well, health and a slightly better Marlins offense. No one on Miami’s roster earned 10 wins last year, not even Sandy. Both he and Rogers actually had losing records despite their brilliance…just further proof pitching wins are a terrible stat.

Just three Marlins pitchers winning 10 or more would break a slump of sorts, as that hasn’t happened since 2014. For you Marlins Jeopardy fans out there, that was the “Mike Dunn” season, when the ever present reliever ended up earning 10 victories out of the bullpen. Equaling that team’s feat is well within reach for the Alcantara/Lopez/Rogers trio as all three are vastly more talented than any healthy pitcher on that 2014 team.

But it’s not just about that trio, is it? Young arm talent abounds in the Miami Marlins organization. Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo project to be in the mix from the start, and Max Meyer won’t be that far behind. If not traded, Elieser Hernandez could even end up pushing for double digit wins if given a season’s worth of appearances. If just one of them breaks through to back up the Big Three, that’s four 10-plus win winners right there.

Something that will be all the easier if…

At least two Miami Marlins will hit 30 HRs this season

In a fair universe, this Miami Marlins slump might have ended last season.

Unfortunately, in the universe we inhabit, MLB tampers with baseballs and Miami trades Adam Duvall. Consequently, another season without even one Marlin hitting 30 HRs- the benchmark for being considered a true power threat. That’s something that has been sorely lacking in South Florida since Stanton left town following his 2017 MVP campaign- the last time the Marlins had either one or two players cross that 30-homer threshold.

Which will make it all the sweeter when two Miami Marlins do so in 2022.

Outside of 2017, you’d have to go back to 2008 to find a Marlins team that had a plurality of power threats on that scale. Back then, Miami’s entire infield hit at least 25 HRs, and came a Jorge Cantu homer short of all reaching 30. The long ball was Miami’s calling card in those years, something that quickly became a one man show for the Fish once Stanton arrived.

So why do I see the 2022 team getting this kind of production? Mainly because the Marlins front office has pretty much publicly announced they are going to pay someone to do half of it. Miami is either trading for, or signing in free agency, a big bat once this lockout ends. Every name they’ve been linked to is more than capable of a 30 HR season. If it’s Kyle Schwarber, we might even see 40.

All this prediction does is pair that promised big bat acquisition with one of Jesus Aguilar, Jesus Sanchez, or Garrett Cooper playing in enough games to do their part. Easy stuff, even if it does hardly ever happen for the Marlins.

Speaking of things that hardly ever happen…

The Miami Marlins will be better…for three years in a row

In 2022, the Miami Marlins have an excellent chance to do something they used to do quite consistently, but haven’t done since 2009:

Be better for three consecutive seasons.

To be clear, this is win-loss wise better. In terms of straight-up talent, you can make the case that bar has been cleared already by this roster. Certainly that case can be made for the 2014-2016 teams.

In terms of bottom-line, total wins progress though? Yeah, that’d be 2009, when Miami finished going from 71 to 84 to 87 wins, before falling back to 80 in 2010. Obviously, there is some cheating taking place here be counting 2020 as the starting point. Still, a season is a season- there are two strike-shortened ones in Marlins history already, and a third could be well on the way. Miami did improve steadily in three year spurts from 94-96, 95-97, 98-00, 01-03- with some championship success at the end of a couple of those runs.

Even with that sixty-game campaign in 2020, three years of progress would really be something to build upon. Reaching it would only take 68 wins, a bar that gets cleared with just slightly better health than the 2021 team enjoyed. And as you can see above, both the 97 and 03 title squads were the result of a pair of nearly consecutive three year growth spurts if you will. No one is pegging the 2022 Marlins as championship material, but everyone is pegging it as perhaps being the foundation for that.

What’s more, for over a decade now, every single time it has looked like the franchise is turning the corner, the bottom has fallen out. Be it firesale, tragedy, or just a slew of injuries and poor roster moves, something has always seemed to happen to trip the Miami Marlins up for far too long. Three straight years of winning more games than the year before would make it a lot easier to buy into this rebuild, and set the team up to do something they’ve never done before in their history in 2023: be better a fourth time.

Next. 3 Worst Case Marlins Outcomes. dark

Of course, as mentioned at the top, all of this depends on a season being played at all. Fingers crossed, because the Miami Marlins should turn a lot of heads this year if they get the chance to do so.

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