Examining the Hall of Fame case for Los Angeles Dodgers legend Orel Hershiser
Los Angeles Dodgers legend Orel Hershiser was one of the best pitchers of the late 1980s. He had one of the best two-month stretches a pitcher has ever had in 1988, when he did not allow a run in the regular season from the sixth inning on August 30 until the first inning of Opening Day the following season.
Even longer, he threw complete games in his final nine regular season starts of the year, including a 10-inning complete game in his final regular season start.
The Dodgers happened to make the postseason in 1988 as well and, while he allowed runs, he was dominant. Hershiser won both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards that year as well. He, nearly, single-handedly won the World Series for the Dodgers that year, despite the team being massive underdogs to the Oakland A’s.
While it was arguably the best two month stretch by an MLB pitcher, two months does not make a Baseball Hall of Famer.
However, Orel Hershiser has a good case for the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Los Angeles Dodgers legend Orel Hershiser has a case for the Baseball Hall of Fame
Orel Hershiser spent parts of 18 seasons in the majors from 1983 through 2000, spending parts of 13 of those seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Overall, in his career, he had a record of 204-150 with a 3.48 ERA, a 112 ERA+, and a 3.69 FIP. He was a three-time All-Star, a Gold Glove winner, the 1988 NL Cy Young Award winner, and he had three more seasons where he finished in the top four in Cy Young voting.
He was also a great postseason pitcher in his career and not just in 1988. In 22 playoff appearances (18 starts), he went 8-3 with a 2.58 ERA. In addition to winning the 1988 NLCS and World Series MVP awards, he also won the 1995 ALCS MVP award when he was with the Cleveland Indians. In that 1995 postseason overall, he had a 1.53 ERA in five starts.
However, throughout his career, he suffered numerous bouts of bad luck.
Los Angeles Dodgers SP Orel Hershiser dealt with injuries and poor run support
With the exception of the 1988 season, the Los Dodgers’ offense rarely supported Orel Hershiser. For example, he was nearly as good in 1987 and 1989 as he was in 1988, but he had a .500 record in both seasons.
In 1987, he went 16-16 with a 3.06 ERA in 37 games (35 starts). He led the NL in innings (264 2/3 IP) and he had an ERA+ of 131, a FIP of 3.21. In 1987, the average team scored 4.52 runs per game.
In the games that he started and was saddled with the loss (15 of his 16 total losses), the Dodgers scored more than three runs in three of his starts.
In 1989, it was even worse. Hershiser went 15-15 (the losses led the league) with a 2.31 ERA. He led the league in innings pitched for the third straight season (256 2/3). He also led the league in ERA+ (149) and FIP (2.77).
Offense was down in 1989, as the average NL team only scored 3.94 runs per game but in his 33 starts), the Dodgers scored more than four runs just eight times. They scored three or fewer runs in 23 times and were shut out six times. You can’t win if your team doesn’t score. The Dodgers, as a team, had a 2.95 ERA, which was the best in baseball and they still only won 77 games.
The other main area of bad luck that Hershiser had was with injuries. In April 1990, he was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his shoulder so he had to have shoulder reconstructive surgery. By doing so, he was the first MLB player to ever have shoulder reconstruction surgery. Coincidentally, the Dodgers team doctor at the time performed the procedure. The doctor? Dr. Frank Jobe, who, 15 years prior, was the doctor that created what is now known as Tommy John surgery.
The problem was that it wiped out the rest of his 1990 season and the first two months of the 1991 season. He was effective after that but never the same. Add in the 1994-95 MLBPA strike and Hershiser had four of his six fairly prime-age seasons (31-36) cut short.
After the surgery, he never was an All-star or received Cy Young votes again.
Orel Hershiser’s career compares to other Baseball Hall of Fame starters
Despite all of the setbacks, Orel Hershiser has a career 56.0 rWAR, which is 83rd all-time among primary starters and tied for 231st all-time. That’s above modern Hall of Fame starters Jim Kaat, Sandy Koufax, Bob Lemon, Jack Morris, and Catfish Hunter and just below Hall of Fame starter Whitey Ford (58.0).
Hershiser’s career 112 ERA+ is equivalent to Nolan Ryan’s and above other HOF starters Don Sutton, Kaat, Early Wynn, Morris, and Hunter.
Hershiser’s WAR7 (his WAR in his best seven MLB seasons) is 40.1, which is 98th all-time among starters. However, it is ahead of likely future Hall of Famer C.C. Sabathia and HOFers Bob Lemon, Early Wynn, John Smoltz, Whitey Ford, and many other current HOFers.
His JAWS (which balances WAR and WAR7) is 48.1, which is 84th among primary starters. That puts him just ahead of Sandy Koufax (47.4), which is a great comparison since both were Dodgers and both had their career significantly impacted by injuries.
At each of their peaks, Koufax was the more dominant pitcher but Hershiser had a longer career.
But Koufax made it into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot in 1972. Hershiser got 11.2 percent of the vote on his first ballot in 2006 and he fell off the ballot in 2007 after he received just 4.4 percent of the vote.
However, Hershiser does have a legitimate shot at making the Hall of Fame. The first season he was eligible, Hershiser made it onto the Today’s Game Era Committee ballot. Players on the ballot have to be retired for at least 15 seasons so the first time that Era Committee voted while he was eligible was in 2017. He didn’t get a ton of votes (fewer than five but the exact number is unknown) but he made the ballot again in 2019.
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He could be on the ballot again in the 2022-2023 offseason, when the Today’s Game Era Committee meets again. More people will be up for consideration on it but considering that the committee has inducted four people in the last two times they’ve voted, Orel Hershiser could have a legitimate shot into the Hall of Fame in the near future.