Top 10 fantasy baseball starting pitchers heading into the 2022 season

Unfortunately for all fantasy baseball players, the season will be delayed due to the MLB lockout. However, we want you to be prepared for when the season does start.

This list is a ranking of the top 10 starting pitchers you want on your fantasy baseball team.

Let’s start off with a few who just missed the list.

Sandy Alcantara is coming off of the best season of his career in 2021. In 33 starts, he pitched 205.2 innings and allowed just 171 hits, 73 earned runs, 50 walks, and struck out 201 batters. His ERA was 3.19, his FIP was 3.42, his WHIP was 1.08, and his ERA+ was 131. He’s still just 26 years old, and he’ll be a Cy Young contender for years to come.

Aaron Nola might’ve had the most unlucky season in baseball in 2021. He made 32 starts, and in 180.2 innings pitched, he allowed 165 hits, 93 earned runs, 39 walks, and struck out 223 batters for an insane K/BB of almost 6-1. His ERA was 4.63, but his FIP was just 3.37 and his WHIP was just 1.13. Expect Nola to bounce back with a strong performance in 2022.

Jose Berrios is another stud who just missed. In 32 starts in 2021, he pitched 192 innings, allowed just 159 hits, 75 earned runs, 45 walks, and struck out 204 batters. His ERA was 3.52, his FIP was 3.47, his WHIP was 1.06, and his ERA+ was 122. He’s been one of the most consistent starters in The Show for several years, and I think there’s more in the tank for him.

Lucas Giolito is the last one who just missed. The righty made 31 starts in 2021 and pitched 178.2 innings. He allowed 145 hits, 70 earned runs, 52 walks, and struck out 201 batters. His ERA was 3.53, his FIP was 3.79, his WHIP was 1.10, and his ERA+ was 123.

I’d happily take any of those guys on my fantasy baseball team. With that out of the way, let’s dive into the top 10 fantasy baseball starters for 2022.

10. Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman had a great 2021. In 33 starts, he pitched 192 innings and allowed just 150 hits, 60 earned runs, 50 walks, and struck out 227 batters. His ERA was 2.81, his FIP was 3.00, his WHIP was 1.04, and his ERA+ was 145. Toronto has a way with pitching, so expect more of the same from Gausman.

Gausman excels at getting swings and misses. He finished 2021 in the 92nd percentile in chase rate, 85th percentile in strikeout rate, and 81st percentile in whiff rate. This is thanks to his firm fastball that he uses up in the zone and his nasty splitter that has sharp downward break off of the same tunnel.

9. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

Shane Bieber was limited due to injury in 2021, but he’s one of the most dominant pitchers in the game when he’s healthy. In his 16 starts and 96.2 innings pitched in 2021, he allowed 84 hits, 34 earned runs, 33 walks, and struck out 134 batters. His ERA was 3.17, his FIP was 3.03, his WHIP was 1.21, and his ERA+ was 139.

If you combine his injury-shortened 2021 and the COVID-shortened 2020 seasons, you get almost a full body of work from Bieber. Over that span, he made 28 starts and pitched 174 innings. He allowed just 130 hits, 48 earned runs, 54 walks, and struck out 256 batters for a great K/BB of almost 5-1. His ERA over that span is 2.48, his FIP is 2.60, his WHIP is 1.05, and his ERA+ is a whopping 178.

6. Two-way Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

Shohei Ohtani is the most talented athlete in sports right now. There is simply no other athlete who can make an impact in every facet of the game like Ohtani can. Obviously he’s going to get a ton of fantasy points from his offense, but he deals as well. He is the projected #1 overall fantasy baseball pick by ESPN, but since this is just looking at his pitching, this seems like a fair spot.

In 2021, Ohtani made 23 starts and pitched 130.1 innings. He allowed 98 hits, 46 earned runs, 44 walks, and struck out 156 batters. His ERA was 3.18, his FIP was 3.52, his WHIP was 1.09, and his ERA+ was 141. Expect him to make a few more starts this year.

His Baseball Savant page is unique because of his two-way abilities. His percentile rankings show an interesting mix of hitting and pitching categories, and there’s dark red in both. On the pitching side, his strikeout rate was in the 85th percentile and his xERA was in the 81st percentile. Offensively, his xBA was in the 85th percentile, while his xSLG and xwOBA were both in the 81st percentile. If you have the top pick in your fantasy baseball draft, this is the easy and obvious selection.

5. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Cole made 30 starts and pitched 181.1 innings in 2021. He allowed 151 hits, 65 earned runs, 41 walks, struck out 243 batters. HIs ERA was 3.23, his FIP was 2.92, his WHIP was 1.06, and his ERA+ was 133. He gave up a ton of hard contact last year, finishing in the 16th percentile of barrel rate.

Cole finds himself in fifth on the fantasy baseball starters list after an up-and-down season. He started the year hot in March, April, and May, then got torched in June and July — both on the field and off — after having his Spider Tack taken away, then dominated in August, and finally getting lit up in September and October.

The obvious differences between his hot and cold streaks is his control. In March, April, and May combined, he only walked nine batters and only gave up five homers. In June, he gave up eight walks and nine homers. In July, he was able to limit the homers (three) but lost the strike zone even more with 11 walks. The good news is, he was still getting strikeouts while going through his control issues. If he can find his command more consistently and limit the hard contact, he can move up this list.

4. Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

Woodruff established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game in 2021. The righty made 30 starts and pitched 179.1 innings. He allowed 130 hits, 51 earned runs, 43 walks, and struck out 211 batters. His ERA was 2.56, his FIP was 2.96, his WHIP was 0.97, and his ERA+ was 166. He finished 5th in the Cy Young voting.

His Baseball Savant page is great as well. He is particularly adept at missing bats, finishing in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity and 90th percentile in hard hit rate. The lowest percentile ranking he finished in was 66th in his whiff rate. In his worst category, his was still 16% above average. Not many pitchers can say that.

3. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

Buehler had his best season in 2021. He made 33 starts and pitched 207.2 innings. He allowed 149 hits, 57 earned runs, 52 walks, and struck out 212 batters. His ERA was 2.47, his FIP was 3.16, his WHIP was 0.97, and his ERA+ was 165.

Buehler doesn’t have the huge strikeout numbers that typically are associated with aces. He averaged just over a strikeout per inning, finishing the season with 9.2 K/9 and in the 65th percentile of strikeout rate. His strength is the spin rates of his pitches, finishing in the 94th percentile in fastball spin and in the 91st percentile in curveball spin. These spin rates lead to a lower quality of contact, which is seen in his 87th percentile in xwOBA.

2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler had a career year in 2021. The righty made 32 starts and pitched 213.1 innings while allowing just 169 hits, 66 earned runs, 46 walks, and striking out 247 batters. His ERA was 2.78, his FIP was 2.59, his WHIP was 1.01, and his ERA+ was 150. He led the league in complete games (3), shutouts (2), and innings pitched.

Wheeler’s Savant page is redder than his Phillies jersey. He finished in the 91st percentile or better in seven categories (99th in average exit velocity, 97th in hard hit rate, 94th in fastball velocity, xERA, and xwOBA, 92nd in barrel percentage, and 91st in xSLG). He had the type of year that Mets fans like me feared he would when the Wilpons let Wheeler walk. If only Steve Cohen bought the team two years earlier.

1. Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

The reigning NL Cy Young award winner is the most desirable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball for 2021. He made 28 starts and pitched 167 innings. He allowed 123 hits, 45 earned runs, 34 walks, and struck out 234 batters. His ERA was 2.43, his FIP was 1.63, his WHIP was 0.94, and his ERA+ was 176. He was 76% better than the average pitcher, yet based on his FIP, he should have had an even better season. His K/BB led the league at just shy of 7-1, and he also led the league in ERA, FIP, HR/9 (0.4), and K/9 (12.6).

Burnes had the most insane Baseball Savant page in baseball in 2021. His lowest percentile ranking was 81st in fastball velocity. Everything else was 92nd percentile or higher! Burnes was simply untouchable in 2021, and I expect him to get a little more leash going forward, so there’s plenty more in store for him in 2022 and beyond.

How would you rank your top 10 fantasy baseball starting pitchers? Let us know in the comments section below.