The Hall of Fame case for Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds legend Dave Parker

Dave Parker was great at the beginning of his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates

Dave Parker received MVP votes in eight more seasons, including five seasons in the top 10 in MVP voting and three seasons in the top three (1975, 1977, 1985).

Parker’s best seasons were from 1975 through 1980. He was injured and slumped a bit in the early 1980s and was a key figure in the Pittsburgh drug trials, which saw Parker and others admit to cocaine use in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Parker even arranged drug deals, according to The Washington Post at the time of the trials in 1985.

But Parker saw a second wind as from 1985 through 1990, Parker was an All-Star three times and received MVP votes four times which included two top five finishes (both with the Reds).

Parker had four seasons of 100+ RBI and six more seasons with 90+ RBI. He also had six seasons with 25+ homers and six seasons with a batting average of .300 or better.

By all of these metrics, he seems to be a sure-fire Hall of Famer but when you look at some of the sabermetrics and conduct some comparative analysis with other Hall of Fame right fielders, Parker is not a sure-fire Hall of Famer.

Comparative analysis doesn’t help Dave Parker’s Hall of Fame case

Dave Parker’s career OPS+ is 122. That would be one of the lowest among right fielders. In fact, the only modern “primary right fielder” (aka played since World War II) who is in the Hall of Fame for their playing career is Harold Baines, whose OPS+ was 121.

Baines’ induction by the Modern Baseball Era Committee was widely panned, especially because at least one-third of the voters who voted for him have close personal connections with him (his former manager Tony La Russa, his former teammate Roberto Alomar, his former GM Pat Gillick, and former owner Jerry Reinsdorf who retired his uniform number with the White Sox a staggering 12 seasons before he even retired from playing). Baines got exactly 75 percent of the vote (or the minimum) needed for induction.

Parker’s rWAR is 40.1. That is 51st all-time among primary right fielders. For comparison, the two players ahead of Parker are Tim Salmon (who was never even an All-Star, inexplicably so) and David Justice and the two behind him are Bryce Harper (who is actually tied with Parker but he is still playing and has done that in nine fewer seasons than Parker) and Reggie Sanders.

Harper could be a Hall of Famer eventually but not as of now and the other three are not close. If Parker was inducted, the only HOF right fielder to play after WWII with a lower WAR is Baines (38.7).

Dave Parker’s WAR7 shows he had a good peak in his career

WAR7 is more favorable for Dave Parker, as his WAR7 (his WAR in his best seven seasons) is 37.3, or 31st among primary right fielders. Modern Hall of Famers Dave Winfield and Enos Slaughter are just ahead of Parker at 37.9 and 37.4. But the only modern HOF right fielder below him? Harold Baines.

With JAWS (which balances WAR and WAR7), Parker is at 38.7. That is 40th all-time. The only modern HOF right fielder below Parker? You guessed it: Harold Baines.

So why the discrepancy between the old school and new school? In a word: defense.

Prior to his injuries and most of his drug use in the 1980s, Parker was an excellent defender. When you look at Total Zone Runs (TZ or Rtot), which is the predecessor to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), Parker was a great outfielder. From the start of his career through 1979, Parker had 42 TZ, or an average of 6 TZ per season.

But after that, he had -63 TZ, or an average of just under -6 TZ per season. That’s why, in 1986, he has such a big contrast. He came in 5th in NL MVP voting … but he had an rWAR of 0.3. It’s because he had -17 TZ.

Dave Parker could be voted in the Baseball Hall of Fame in December 2023

If Dave Parker hadn’t had so many injuries and had drug issues in the early 1980s, perhaps he would have been able to maintain his Hall of Fame pace from the early 1970s but in his 15 BBWAA ballots, Parker never got more than 24.5 percent of the vote, which happened on his second ballot in 1998.

Hall of Famer Tim Raines was also implicated in the drug trials as well and he eventually got into the Hall of Fame so the BBWAA voters were willing to forgive Raines for his misgivings. However, the sabermetrics say that Raines was a better player than Parker.

Parker has made the Modern Era Baseball Committee ballot before as he was on the ballot in 2018 when Harold Baines was voted in for the Class of 2019. He didn’t even receive half of the vote, though. He was also on the ballot in 2014.

Parker has had Parkinson’s Disease for nearly a decade now so the man affectionately nicknamed “The Cobra” is in the twilight of his life so when they vote in December 2023, perhaps he will receive more recognition on the ballot. And, perhaps, Parker would be able to receive the honor while he is still alive, unlike many Hall of Famers or should be Hall of Famers in recent years.