Now that the rush to sign available free agents is on, which MLB teams have an opening day payroll flexibility that will allow them to do so?
Based on their historical spending patterns, the answer is: several. Seven teams currently project to open the season with payrolls at least $15 million below their 2021 opening day levels.
Since there’s no real reason to believe that most of those teams are paring back, the reasonable expectation is that they can and probably will spend heavily on available talent over the next couple of weeks.
That group is led by the Washington Nationals. From the team’s $183.1 million 2021 opening day roster, the Nats have pared about $70 million. That includes the departures in trades last season of Max Scherzer ($35 million) and Trea Turner ($13 million).
Washington now projects to start the season with a $113 million payroll that would be its smallest – not counting the Covid-shortened 2020 season — since 2012.
That in turn positions the Nats to compete for any of the current high-dollar available talent, assuming they want to do so.
The Minnesota Twins are in a similar position. The Twins opened 2021 with a $125 million payroll. They are presently projected to open 2022 under $88 million, a difference of more than $37 million.
Like the Nats, it’s been a long time – 2014, in fact – since the Twins dipped under $100 million for an opening day payroll, and there’s no real reason to expect them to do so this year. That gives owner Jim Pohlad and GM Thad Levine plenty of flexibility to add talent over the next couple of weeks.
The Chicago Cubs are in almost as flexible a position as the Twins. Having dumped the core of their roster in a July trade binge last season, the Cubs are currently on track to open 2022 at $112.5 million, about $35.3 million below last season’s opening day payroll.
The Cubs, who haven’t begun a season at $112 million since 2014, can chase any available free agent they want, whether that means going after Carlos Correa or re-recruiting Kris Bryant.
Correa’s old team, the Astros, may not be able to meet Correa’s asking price, but based on their payroll history they wouldn’t miss it by much. Houston right now is projected to open the season at $168 million, nearly $20 million below their 2021 opening day payroll.
The Phillies have in recent years signed Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto to mega-contracts, yet they are still positioned to begin 2022 about $18 million below their $191 million opening day payroll for 2021. The Cardinals are in a similar situation, projecting a $146.55 million opening day payroll that would be about $17 million below last season. They, too, have flexibility.
Finally there are the Dodgers, who have never been known to be bashful when it comes to spending money. They project to open 2022 with a $236.5 million payroll that would be exceeded only by the New York Mets. But that’s still more than $11 million below what LA spent to open 2021.
Since Mark Walter and Guggenheim Investment purchased the team in 2012, the Dodger opening day payroll has rarely dipped below $200 million, and four different times has exceeded the current 2022 projection.
That means it’s reasonable to expect the Dodgers to add on before the MLB season starts.