Steve Cohen is certainly making his mark on the New York Mets payroll. However, he may also be about to find out that spending on free agent talent in order to buy a Major League championship is a whole lot riskier than running a hedge fund.
Cohen has already driven the Mets’ 2022 payroll to a record $255.57 million, and he may not be done spending yet. His profligate spending ways were one of the major factors behind ownership’s insistence on maintaining the Competitive Balance Tax and penalties in the just-concluded labor negotiations.
The thing is, most data indicates that baseball championships are rarely bought. The data also indicates that the actual relationship between a team’s spending habits and its on-field success is at best casual. Low-payroll teams regularly reach baseball’s postseason, and sometimes win it all.
Over the past 10 seasons, the correlation between what a team spends on payroll and the number of games it wins averages a pedestrian 25.5 percent. Only once in that decade (2016) has that correlation surpassed 50 percent.
Three teams during that decade — the 2015 Royals, 2017 Astros and 2021 Braves — won the World Series despite ranking outside the top dozen teams in payroll. Only once in that same period has the top spending team — the 2018 Red Sox — copped the big prize.
Over that same 10-season span, eight of the 20 teams that reached the World Series began the season with a payroll that was outside the game’s top 10. The 2020 Rays won the AL pennant despite standing 27th in payroll, the 2016 Indians were 26th, and the 2015 Mets were 21st.
Cohen obviously doesn’t believe this. Under Cohen, the Mets have already added more than $116 million in spending just for 2022 alone. That’s more than half the teams in MLB are likely to spend in their entirety.
The baubles added by Cohen include Max Scherzer, a free agent signee who will earn $43.333 million in 2022, Francisco Lindor, whose new contract takes effect this year, guaranteeing him $34.1 million, Starling Marte ($15.75 million), Mark Canha ($13 million), and Eduardo Escobar ($10 million).
But the free agent market is always a dicey place to shop for talent. Just look at how purchases of the most expensive free agents have worked out in the past decade.