Steve Cohen and the New York Mets’ perilous pursuit of free agency

Steve Cohen is certainly making his mark on the New York Mets payroll. However, he may also be about to find out that spending on free agent talent in order to buy a Major League championship is a whole lot riskier than running a hedge fund.

Cohen has already driven the Mets’ 2022 payroll to a record $255.57 million, and he may not be done spending yet. His profligate spending ways were one of the major factors behind ownership’s insistence on maintaining the Competitive Balance Tax and penalties in the just-concluded labor negotiations.

The thing is, most data indicates that baseball championships are rarely bought. The data also indicates that the actual relationship between a team’s spending habits and its on-field success is at best casual. Low-payroll teams regularly reach baseball’s postseason, and sometimes win it all.

Over the past 10 seasons, the correlation between what a team spends on payroll and the number of games it wins averages a pedestrian 25.5 percent. Only once in that decade (2016) has that correlation surpassed 50 percent.

Three teams during that decade — the 2015 Royals, 2017 Astros and 2021 Braves — won the World Series despite ranking outside the top dozen teams in payroll. Only once in that same period has the top spending team — the 2018 Red Sox — copped the big prize.

Over that same 10-season span, eight of the 20 teams that reached the World Series began the season with a payroll that was outside the game’s top 10. The 2020 Rays won the AL pennant despite standing 27th in payroll, the 2016 Indians were 26th, and the 2015  Mets were 21st.

Cohen obviously doesn’t believe this. Under Cohen, the Mets have already added more than $116 million in spending just for 2022 alone. That’s more than half the teams in MLB are likely to spend in their entirety.

The baubles added by Cohen include Max Scherzer, a free agent signee who will earn $43.333 million in 2022, Francisco Lindor, whose new contract takes effect this year, guaranteeing him $34.1 million, Starling Marte ($15.75 million), Mark Canha ($13 million), and Eduardo Escobar ($10 million).

But the free agent market is always a dicey place to shop for talent. Just look at how purchases of the most expensive free agents have worked out in the past decade.

2013

Far and away the big catch of the 2012-13 winter was Zack Greinke, who signed a six-year, $147 million contract with the Dodgers. Greinke was 1-3 in three postseason appearances for L.A., his team losing out in the 2013 NLCS and 2014 NLDS.

Opting out after three years, he signed a new deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, of which there will be more to say later.

The year’s second-biggest catch was outfielder Josh Hamilton, who signed with for five years and $123 million with the Angels. Two years and one fruitless postseason appearance later (Hamilton was hitless in 13 ALDS at bats against the 2014 Royals), the Angels agreed to pay Texas about $73.5 million to take him off their hands. He batted .167 against Toronto in the 2015 ALDS and retired after 2017.

The offseason’s third-biggest signee was pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who accepted $80 million to pitch five seasons for Detroit. The Tigers got two productive seasons out of Sanchez, including 2013 and 2014 playoff appearances. He went 1-2 and the Tigers were eliminated by the Red Sox in the ALCS, then by the Orioles in the division round.

The fourth big deal that winter went to B.J. Upton, who signed a five-year, $75.5 million contract with the Braves. Upton played one postseason series for Atlanta, that coming against the Dodgers in the 2013 NLDS. He was hitless and Atlanta bowed out.

For his career, Upton batted .198 in Atlanta before being unloaded to San Diego in April of 2015. By the time the deal expired, he had been shuffled to Toronto, then back to San Diego, then back to Toronto again. He did play in nine postseason games for the 2016 Jays, batting .191.

2014

Easily the big free agent name that offseason was Robinson Cano, who left the Bronx to accept a 10-year, $240 million offer from the Seattle Mariners. Cano lasted five seasons in Seattle, batting .296. But his mega-salary — amounting to nearly one-third of the team’s entire payroll — hamstrung the Mariners so much that they never maneuvered into a playoff spot.

Following a 2018 drug policy-related suspension, Cano’s contract was dealt to the Mets, and he remains there today. He has not yet played a single postseason game under the terms of that 10-year contract.

Three other players signed free agent deals in the $130 to $160 million range that winter. Here’s how they worked out.

• Masahiro Tanaka went for seven years and $155 million to the Yankees. A 78-46 pitcher during the regular season, he was 5-4 in 10 postseason appearances, but his Yanks never advanced beyond the 2017 and 2019 ALCS. Tanaka was 2-2 in those two series.
• Jacoby Ellsbury also signed with the Yankees, for seven years and $153 million. He lasted parts of four seasons before injuries derailed his usefulness. In those four seasons, Ellsbury batted .264 and averaged about 50 RBI per season.

Ellsbury played in seven postseason games for New York, going hitless in 13 official at-bats. The Yankees continued to pay him through the length of the deal, including a $5 million buyout in  2021.

• The Texas Rangers got outfielder Shin Soo Choo to agree to a seven-year, $14 million contract. Choo batted.260 for the Rangers with 114 home runs. But his team only reached postseason play twice, losing to the Blue Jays in both the 2015 and 2016 ALDS. Choo batted .209 with one home run in those two series.

2015

Pitchers were the two biggest catches following the winter of 2014, and eventually the biggest of that offseason’s moves did pay off.

The Nationals lured Max Scherzer with a seven-year, $210 million contract. Becoming the ace of the staff, Scherzer led Washington to 2016, 2017, and 2019 postseason appearances, the latter ending in a World Series victory.

The Chicago Cubs gave Jon Lester a six-year, $155 million contract, and he immediately became the team’s ace. Lester went 77-44 until being traded away in midseason 2021, and added a dozen post-season appearances between 2015 and 2018. His work in the 2016 postseason, including being named MVP of the team’s NLCS victory over Los Angeles, was pivotal to the Cubs’ first World Series victory in 108 seasons.

The winter’s other major free agent decisions were less fruitful. The Red Sox, who one winter earlier had invested $88 million over four seasons on Hanley Ramirez, doubled down and committed $95 million over five years to Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval batted .237 before being sent back to the Giants, Boston paying almost all of his 2018 salary.

The Toronto Blue Jays gave Russell Martin a five-year, $82 million deal to catch for them. Martin hit .225 for the Jays, although he was behind the plate for the team’s 2015 and  2016 postseason runs. Both ended in ALCS losses, Martin batting .108 in those series.

2016

The Red Sox lured David Price with a seven-year, $217 million deal. The length of that deal did encompass Boston’s 2018 World Series victory, in which Price played a meaningful role. He made two starts in that series, and won two games.

But when Price became too costly an asset for his reduced role, the Red Sox in February of 2020 shipped him and Mookie Betts to the Dodgers, contributing $32 million to L.A. to make it happen. Price did not take the mound in the Dodgers’ 2020 postseason run.

Greinke re-entered the free agent market and this time accepted a six-year, $206.5 million deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks. That romance lasted three and one-half seasons and encompassed one postseason run. The 2017 D-Backs were eliminated by the Dodgers in the division round, Greinke taking the loss in his only appearance.

It cost Arizona $24 million to get Houston to accept the remaining three years and $104 million of his contract, but it did net 11 postseason appearances, three of them World Series starts.

The other major free agent signings produced questionable benefit. The Cubs locked up Jason Heyward to a deal that continues, paying him $184 million. For that amount, they reportedly got a highly inspirational and possibly pivotal World Series Game 7 locker room speech — oratory ought to count for something — but little on-field production.

The Orioles re-upped slugger Chris Davis for seven seasons at $161 million. They got three years of decent power, no batting average, no postseason hits, and no oratory.

The Tigers committed to free agent Justin Upton to the tune of six years and $132.75 million. Commitments, however, are not what they used to be. When the Tigers deteriorated in 2017, they shipped Upton to the Angels, for whom he has since hit. 267 with no postseason appearances.

2017

The winter’s biggest free agent deal went to Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets giving him $110 million over four years. Already showing signs of the physical ailments that would soon render that deal absurd, Cespedes had only 127 games and 512 plate appearances left.

He batted .274 and made no postseason appearances for the duration of the deal.

Aroldis Chapman got the second-most money, $86 million, to rejoin the Yankees after helping the Cubs win the World Series. Chapman, who remains active, has saved 124 regular-season games for the Yanks. But his postseason record goes no farther than stints in the 2017 and 2019 ALCS. He was 0-2 with two saves in those series losses.

The Cardinals liked what Dexter Fowler did for the Cubs so much that they signed him to a five-year, $82.5 million contract to play center field. Fowler hit .233 for the Cardinals and, in the 2019 and 2020 postseasons, he batted .128. In the team’s 2019 NLCS loss to Washington, Fowler was hitless in 11 at-bats.

The Dodgers resigned their closer, Kenley Jansen, for five years and $80 million. In exchange, the Dodgers got 161 regular-season saves plus 11 postseason saves, two coming in his 11 World Series appearances.

But Jansen’s World Series work has been spotty. It also includes two losses and a 5.03 ERA.

2018

The Padres waved $144 million for eight years in front of Eric Hosmer, and he took it. In San Diego, Hosmer’s average has fallen 20 points, his power has basically been halved, and he is reportedly available if anybody’s interested in picking up the remaining four years and $60 million.

The Cubs paid Yu Darvish $126 million to sign with them for six years. He returned a 15-14 record, a 3.60 ERA, and one postseason outing, a defeat in the 2020 Wild Card.

Prior to 2021, the Cubs sent Darvish and catcher Vic Caratini to San Diego.

One of the rare big-dollar free agent hits of recent years was Boston’s signing of outfielder J.D. Martinez for five years at $110 million. Martinez was a big factor in Boston’s run to the 2018 World Series championship.

The Phillies’ courting of Jake Arrieta that winter was far less rewarding. They gave Arrieta $75 million over three seasons. In exchange they got a 22-23 record, a 4.36 ERA, and no postseason activity by either the pitcher or the team whatsoever.

The Milwaukee Brewers offered Lorenzo Cain $80 million to play center field for five seasons. Cain has hit a credible .282, but he’s a .242 postseason batter with two RBI in four Brewers post-season series, three of those defeats.

Since 2019

The data for players signed these past three seasons is largely incomplete. Who knows what Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, and Anthony Rendon might do down the road?

But that same data pool already has built up several cautionary tales.

Prior to the 2019 season, the Red Sox resigned pitcher Nathan Eovaldi — a hero of the 2018 World Series — for four years at $68 million. In the first three of those seasons, Eovaldi has been limited by injuries and COVID-19 to a total of 298 innings. He’s 15-12 with a 3.96 ERA. He was 2-2 in four starts during the 2021 postseason.

The Twins paid Josh Donaldson $92 million for four seasons prior to the 2020 season. Last year, Donaldson hit .247. He was injured and did not play when the Twins lost to Houston in the 2020 postseason.

Coming off an impressive 2020, the Braves signed Marcel Ozuna for four years at $65 million. They got 48 games of a .213 average plus seven home runs, followed by a domestic violence suspension. Ozuna remains a Braves commitment — to the tune of $53 million — through 2025, and is at least tentatively in the team’s plans for 2022.

Finally comes the matter of Trevor Bauer and the Dodgers. L.A. signed Bauer for three years at $102 million prior to the 2021 season. Bauer was 8-5 with a 2.59 ERA through late June, when word of legal issues involving him broke.

Bauer has since been cleared of criminal wrongdoing, but (as of this writing) MLB has not yet cleared him to return to the field and he is not listed on the team’s depth chart entering 2022.