MLB lockout: When all is said and done, more got said than done

So, after a 99-day MLB lockout, at last we have baseball.

It was interesting that, looking back at the end of the MLB lockout, the executive committee, which sat in on the negotiations and which was made up of veterans, most of whom have already signed at least one huge contract in their careers, voted unanimously to reject the deal. However, the player reps voted overwhelmingly to accept it. That indicates that the executive committee likely thought they could get more by waiting, but that the rest of the players were not willing to give up game checks in order to do so.

That was probably the right move. It was clear by their last offers that the players were no longer going for structural changes that would have altered the fabric of the game. The bonus pool for pre-arbitration players was a nice gain, as was the boost in minimum salary. But the players seemingly began his process trying to replenish the middle class (salaries between $5 and $20 million). There is not much in this agreement to help that cause.

Perhaps all of this at the end of the MLB lockout that was inevitable.

After all, if a 30-year-old player has posted WARs of 1.0 or 2.0 over most of his career, why would a general manager pay a premium for that player’s decline years when there are plenty of options who can perform at least at replacement level and who cost 10% of what the veteran is asking?

The difference between baseball and other sports is that different teams place different values on that extra win that a 1.0 WAR player can provide. In the NBA and NFL, the added value of that win is balanced against the cap space that player will consume, and his value is essentially pre-ordained, with the only variability being the difference in teams’ opinion.

Baseball has no middle class of players because it has no middle class of teams. The average team payroll in 2021 was $132 million, according to Spotrac, but only eight teams were between $100 million and $170 million. The teams above that level focus their resources on the big fish who can get them six or eight extra wins, while the teams below are either tanking or pinching pennies so tightly that they would rather see what is available in the bargain bin. Some teams have gotten so good at the bargain bin that the value of that middle-class player has actually fallen to that level.

The real question is whether additional playoff spots will encourage more teams to chase the extra win or two that the middle-class player represents. The players strongly felt that the opposite was true … that the teams actually willing to spend money will find an easier path to the playoffs, so they won’t bother adding around their core players.

What seems to be the case is that teams know that if they are .500 or better at the trade deadline, they can pick up enough good players to make a run at a playoff spot. So why bother carrying that payroll for the entire season? And if they aren’t at .500 by the trade deadline, they will probably be shedding payroll, anyway. The additional playoff slots will probably make that sort of thinking more prevalent, not less.

The one thing that will increase salaries is the universal DH. Essentially, this takes 15 roster spots that had been going to a third left-handed reliever and gives them to hitters who will be expected to produce runs. Assuming that the increase in minimum salaries affects 300 players, and that the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players disburses $50 million, it seems likely that owners will spend more on 15 designated hitters than on either of those concessions.

All in all, the hotels and restaurants in Arizona and Florida probably lost more money from cancelled spring training trips than either side gained from this lockout. Rob Manfred was not obligated to consider the collateral damage when he decided to engage in brinksmanship rather than work collaboratively toward a solution. However, the next time he pontificates about how the fans are at the core of every move he makes, feel free to roll your eyes.