Michael Conforto could still make sense for Miami Marlins

It’s less than two weeks until Opening Day, and there’s one big free agent prize left. Could Michael Conforto still work for the Miami Marlins?

All in all, it’s been a mostly successful offseason for the Miami Marlins.

They needed an answer at catcher, and got a great one in Jacob Stallings. They needed some offense, and signed Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler. They needed more depth, and traded for Joey Wendle. The National League was even kind enough to allow the use of a designated hitter, freeing Miami up to keep both Garrett Cooper and Jesus Aguilar in the lineup at the same time.  The bullpen … well, I did say mostly successful, didn’t I?

However, and one could argue this largely to blame on the MLB lockout and not the front office, it still feels like this offseason is a bit unfinished, ending in a whimper rather than a bang. The Miami Marlins are clearly better, but will they contend? Will they be good? For that last part to happen, they are still one big name away.

And that big name is Michael Conforto.  The last remaining big prize of MLB free agency.

Admittedly, this is a bit of a reversal for me. Of all the outfielders available this offseason, he does kind of feel like the best candidate for owing the bulk of his success to the happy fun ball of seasons’ past. But, at the end of the day, that just means I thought Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber would hit a baseball harder than Conforto in 2022.

Conforto still has a well above average career track record, and indeed has the highest wRC (128) of the three of them going back to the start of 2017. Even in a 2021 campaign where plenty went wrong, he lowered his strikeout rate, nothing to sneeze at in the three true outcomes era. As for how he stacks up against the rest of the Miami Marlins roster, he trailed only Cooper in 2021 OBP … and Cooper didn’t have enough at bats to qualify. He’d be a big help, and that’s even before accounting for the fact that it’s actually reasonable to project him as being competent in center field.

At this point, in the interest of credibility, I need to acknowledge that a Marlins pursuit of Conforto at this point is highly unlikely and arguably crazy.

The thing is though, I think it just might be the Marlins kind of crazy. The Marlins tried to swing for a blockbuster trade with Bryan Reynolds, and couldn’t do it. The Marlins are already going to have problems keeping South Florida’s attention with the Miami Heat and Florida Panthers poised to make deep playoff runs as the MLB season gets underway. And then the Miami Dolphins had to go and shock the sports world with their acquisition of superstar receiver Tyreek Hill. The season hasn’t started, and the Miami Marlins are already in fourth place.

They wanted to make the Reynolds trade. They purportedly wanted to sign a big free agent. It was absolutely crazy not to spend on the bullpen, and you can make a really good case that if the Marlins do have an extra $20 million lying around, they should just trade for Craig Kimbrel and call it an offseason. They hit the ground running when the offseason first started, trying to be bold and capture attention. And then the lockout happened. And half the local teams became legit title contenders.

Barring them deciding to pull the trigger on the Reynolds deal after all, which would be a better idea, the Miami Marlins have one more chance to make the shock and awe play.

That play is dropping the bag for Michael Conforto. For one year, mind. The Marlins didn’t want to sign any outfielder to a long-term deal when so many of their top hitting prospects are outfielders. Which is what it is as far as decisions go, but possibly the right move for a small revenue team. Absolutely, some other dominoes would have to fall if Miami pulled that off. Mainly, they would have to immediately pick between Cooper and Aguilar at first, and move the other in some kind of trade.But if Conforto was going to get a multi-year deal to his liking, he’d have gotten it already. He’s going to play for someone on one of those one-year prove it deals in 2022.

Like Marcell Ozuna in 2020. Like Marcus Semien in 2021.

The upside is high, the risk is only money, and the amount is dropping by the day. It’s a long shot, but I wouldn’t count the Miami Marlins out just yet on the Michael Conforto sweepstakes.