New York Yankees: Predicting when, how much on Aaron Judge’s contract extension

We will reportedly know soon enough if the New York Yankees and star outfielder Aaron Judge are able to come together on a contract extension or if this is going to be a very awkward season in the Bronx.

What we know and predict about the Aaron Judge contract extension from the New York Yankees

Judge has already told the New York Yankees that he wants to figure out if the two sides can come together on a contract extension before Opening Day, which is scheduled for Thursday, April 7, at home against the Boston Red Sox. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman heard Judge’s request loud and clear, and has said that the team will make an offer to Judge before Opening Day arrives.

Predictions for what that offer might be are historic, with Judge reportedly having a chance to land in the top five deals ever given to an outfielder behind Mike Trout (12 years, $426.5 million from the Los Angeles Angels), Mookie Betts (12 years, $365 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers), Bryce Harper (13 years, $330 million from the Philadelphia Phillies), and teammate Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325 million when he was with the Miami Marlins).

The Yankees handed Derek Jeter a 10-year, $189 million deal in 2001, and Judge’s contract could easily zoom past that.

Judge is in the final season of arbitration before his contract expires at the end of this campaign. For this season, Judge wants $21 million while the Yankees have offered $17 million, so the two sides have had trouble agreeing on one campaign, let alone with what future numbers might mean as well.

Take that as a sign of posturing or trouble ahead, but it gives a glimpse into the work that is going to need to be done before April 7 to get Judge to commit to a long-term future in pinstripes.

Joel Sherman of The New York Post has predicted a six-year, $216.6 million deal ($36.1 million average annual value). Turning 30 in late April, this size and length of contract would secure Judge in a Yankees uniform likely until the end (or near end) of his career. It would also be in line with the contracts signed by the four players mentioned above, each of which takes them to the end of their careers as well.

Will the Yankees do that before the season begins? If they’ve learned nothing from the Freddie Freeman saga with the Atlanta Braves, it’s that a team needs to lock up a player before things get messy in the offseason. That’s exactly what could happen with Judge and the Yankees if they try to wait until after the season to make a deal.

So, it’s prediction time …

Knowing all of this, the Yankees and Judge will come to an agreement before Opening Day on a deal that pays him an even $36 million per year for six years, including this season so that any  arbitration hearing is avoided. Judge will enter the first game against the Red Sox with a six-year, $216 million contract and the Yankees will be able to focus on what is happening on the field instead of behind the scenes.