Top 10 fantasy baseball first basemen heading into the 2022 season
Fantasy baseball season is upon us. Over the next couple of weeks leading up to Opening Day, many people will draft their fantasy teams for the 2022 season.
This list is a ranking of the top 10 first basemen you want on your fantasy baseball team.
Let’s start off with a few guys who just missed the list.
Anthony Rizzo was one of the most consistent first basemen in the league from 2014 through 2019, but he’s started to drop off as he’s aged. He was still an above-average player in 2021, posting a .248/.344/.440/.783 slash line with 22 homers, 22 doubles, and 61 RBI. Those aren’t the eye-popping numbers we have gotten used to seeing from him, but in tiny Yankee stadium, expect more in 2022.
Jared Walsh had a breakout season last year. The lefty slashed .277/.340/.509/.850 with 29 homers, 34 doubles, and 98 RBI. He’s not going to walk much (40th percentile in walk rate) and he is going to strikeout a lot (20th percentile strikeout rate), but he barrels the ball better than most (75th percentile barrel rate).
Ryan Mountcastle had a big 2021 in some aspects, yet struggled in others. His final slash line was .255/.309/.487/.796 with 33 homers, 23 doubles, and 89 RBI. The counting stats are good, as were some of his Baseball Savant metrics (79th percentile in barrel rate, 70th percentile in xSLG), but the rate stats are underwhelming. It’s hard to get excited about a player that has an OPS under .800. Last year he was in the third percentile in chase rate, 12th percentile in whiff rate, and 14th percentile in strikeout rate. He needs to work on his eye to make the list someday.
Brandon Belt put up some monster power numbers in 2021. He slashed .274/.378/.597/.975 with 29 homers, 14 doubles, and 59 RBI. He finished in the 94th percentile in barrel rate and chase rate, 90th percentile in walk rate, and 89th percentile in xwOBA and xSLG. It’s very strange to me that he only drove in 59 runs when he hit 29 homers, so they must’ve been mostly solo shots. In 2019, he hit basically half as many homers (17) and drove in almost the same number of runs (57). I don’t know what’s going on there, but I hope he can figure out a way to drive in more runs.
I originally had Belt inside the top 10 first basemen fantasy baseball list, but the shockingly low RBI totals dropped him out.
#10 Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins had a good 2021, slashing .247/.334/.530/.864 with 27 homers, 29 doubles, and 71 RBI, good for a 129 OPS+. Based on his Savant metrics, he should’ve been even better. He finished in the 94th percentile in barrel rate, 93rd percentile in expected slugging, 90th percentile in xwOBA, 83rd percentile in average exit velocity, and 77th percentile in hard hit rate. While he does strikeout a lot (37th percentile in whiff rate and 29th percentile in strikeout rate), he also controls the strike zone very well (71st percentile in walk rate and 65th percentile in chase rate.
His combination of power, a good eye, and now hitting in a very deep Phillies lineup in that bandbox of a stadium bodes well for a strong 2022 in real life and in fantasy baseball.
#9 C.J. Cron
Cron had arguably the best season of his career last year. He slashed .281/.375/.530/.905 with 28 homers, 31 doubles, and 92 RBI, good for an OPS+ of 130. He was in the 83rd percentile in xwOBA, and 7th percentile in walk rate, xSLG, and barrel rate. While there is definitely some swing-and-miss to his game (24th percentile in chase rate and 31st percentile in whiff rate), he actually doesn’t strike out that much (50th percentile in strikeout rate, exactly league average) and he takes his walks (77th percentile in walk rate). He also spread his hits around the field more than in previous seasons, making the most of that huge outfield in Coors Field. He took advantage of the ball flying in Colorado, and with two years left on his contract there, there’s no reason to think he can’t repeat.
#8 Jose Abreu
Mr. Consistent finds himself in eighth on the list. Abreu slashed .261/.351/.481/.831 with 30 homers, 30 doubles, and 117 RBI, good for an OPS+ of 125. The only season in his career where he hasn’t reached 60 extra-base hits was the COVID-shortened 2020, and I’ll give him a pass on that since he would’ve surpassed that in a full season. In 2021, he finished in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit rate, as well as 72nd percentile in xwOBA, 69th percentile in xSLG, and 66th percentile in barrel rate. He’s also eligible, and a very strong target, at DH in most formats, so this is a very safe pick in a deep lineup in Chicago.
#7 Joey Votto
The most interesting man in baseball comes in seventh after rediscovering his power in 2021. The lefty slashed .266/.375/.563/.938 with 36 homers, 23 doubles, and 99 RBI, good for an OPS+ of 136.
His Baseball Savant page is almost as red as his Reds jersey. He finished in the 97th percentile in walk rate and xSLG, 96th percentile in hard hit rate and xwOBA, 95th percentile in barrel rate, 93rd percentile in average exit velo, and 87th percentile in chase rate. Sure his strikeout numbers went up as he sacrificed a little discipline and control for power, but he’s still a very good first baseman heading into his age 37 season.
The only real concern that comes with Votto is the lack of lineup protection after Bob Castellini decided to sell good players for pennies instead of building a winning team. I would expect Votto to get pitched around more this season, so look for his on-base numbers to rise again and his power numbers to drop a bit. This may impact his fantasy baseball value, but I still expect the power to be serviceable.
#6 Pete Alonso
The Polar Bear comes in sixth. Alonso had a strong 2021, posting a .262/.347/.519/.863 with 37 homers, 27 doubles, and 94 RBI, good for an OPS+ of 134. Alonso excels at hitting the ball hard, finishing in the 92nd percentile in xSLG, 89th percentile in barrel rate and xwOBA, 81st percentile in hard hit rate, and 80th percentile in average exit velo. Alonso doesn’t strike out as much as a lot of other players on this list (61st percentile) and he takes his walks too (59th percentile). Alonso will be entrenched in the four hole in a deep Mets lineup, so expect more of the same from him, maybe with a few more RBI since the Mets got a few guys with great on-base skills that will hit in front of him.
#5 Paul Goldschmidt
Goldy hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. He slashed .294/.365/.514/.879 with 31 homers, 31 doubles, 99 RBI, and 102 runs scored, good for an OPS+ of 143. In his age 33 season, Goldy finished in the 95th percentile in xSLG, 94th percentile in xwOBA, 93rd percentile in xBA and average exit velo, 91st percentile in hard hit rate, and 85th percentile in barrel rate. Goldschmidt is the rare first baseman who can steal bases, so that makes him even more valuable in fantasy baseball.
He’s been one of the most consistent producers in baseball for several years now, and going into his age 34 season, you shouldn’t have any doubts about taking him fairly early in your fantasy baseball draft. He’s looked good in spring training so far, with a .500 average, .600 OBP, 1.083 SLG, and 1.683 OPS.
#4 Max Muncy
Mad Max had one of his best seasons in 2021. He slashed .249/.368/.527/.895 with 36 homers, 26 doubles, 94 RBI, and 95 runs scored, good for an OPS+ of 138. The only Savant metric that isn’t red is his sprint speed, which doesn’t really matter at first base. He finished in the 99th percentile in chase rate, 96th percentile in xSLG, walk rate, and xwOBA, 92nd percentile in barrel rate, 83rd percentile in average exit velo, and 78th percentile in hard hit rate.
Muncy’s combination of power, ability to control the strike zone, and positional versatility is worth a high fantasy baseball draft pick. In most formats, he is also eligible at second base, third base, and DH, and he will likely spend most of his time at those positions since the Dodgers added someone higher on this list.
Even coming off of an elbow injury, he looks good to go to start the season.
#3 Freddie Freeman
The newest Dodger should’ve spent his whole career in Atlanta, but since the Braves failed to re-sign him, he’ll likely finish his career in his hometown. Freeman slashed .300/.393/.503/.896 with 31 homers, 25 doubles, 83 RBI, and he led the National League with 120 runs scored, good for an OPS+ of 133. Freeman’s Savant page doesn’t match his blue Dodgers jersey, but it did match his Braves one. He finished in the 100th percentile in xBA, 98th percentile in xwOBA, 96th percentile in xSLG, 87th percentile in walk rate, 86th percentile in strikeout rate, and in the 77th percentile in hard hit rate and barrel rate.
While his swing mechanics aren’t what I would call teachable, he’s been one of the most consistent producers in the sport for several years and he might be even better in this absurdly deep Dodger lineup.
#2 Matt Olson
The newest member of the Atlanta Braves had his best season in 2021. The slugger slashed .271/.371/.540/.911/ with 39 homers, 35 doubles, 111 RBI, and 101 runs scored, good for an OPS+ of 153. Olson finished in the 92nd percentile in walk rate, 90th percentile in xwOBA, 87th percentile in average exit velo and hard hit rate, 84th percentile in xSLG, and 82nd percentile in barrel rate. He does strikeout a lot (76th percentile), but he also takes his walks and has good control over the zone. He joins a lineup that features Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and eventually Ronald Acuna, so he’ll have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs, and some protection behind him. Olson entrenched himself among the elite tier of first basemen, and since the ball flies in Atlanta, you should expect more of the same for several years to come.
#1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Valdito had one of the most insane seasons in recent memory in 2021. He would’ve won the MVP in pretty much any other year, but since Shohei Ohtani had his breakout season on both sides of the ball, he took the honors. Vladdy slashed .311/.401/.601/.1.002 with 48 homers, 29 doubles, 111 RBI, and 123 runs scored, good for a 169 OPS+. Vladdy hits the ball really freaking hard, finishing in the 99th percentile in average exit velo, 98th percentile in hard hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and 90th percentile in barrel rate. He doesn’t strike out much at all for someone with as violent a swing as he has (82nd percentile) and he has a very good eye too (87th percentile in walk rate and 69th percentile in chase rate). Simply put, he’s one of the best hitters in the game – both in real life and in fantasy baseball — and he’s just going into his age 23 season.
Next. Top 10 fantasy baseball starting pitchers. dark
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