St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright is still killing it at age 40

Adam Wainwright has been a staple of St. Louis Cardinals baseball for the past 17 years and has accrued a very respectable resume of 184 wins, over 2,000 strikeouts, and an ERA of 3.35.

Having turned 40 last August, one would think an older pitcher like Waino would be showing clear signs of regression after nearly two decades of Major League arm taxation, but a quick dive into his Statcast will surprisingly show the Cardinal legend to be progressing in several key areas.

Adam Wainwright still getting it done for St. Louis Cardinals

As velocity drops in this league, the prevailing narrative is that so too does spin rate. Wainwright has naturally seen his velo steadily decline over time, but his spin rates have done quite the opposite ever since such metrics have been kept track of more in-depth.

Every season since 2017, Wainwright has seen his curveball spin rate increase. He’s gone from 2,643 rpms on his curve in 2017 to 2,839 rpms in 2021.

Not only that with his best pitch, but every season since 2018 Waino has also seen his 4-seam, cutter, and sinker spin rates increase. He’s gone from 2,167 rpms on his 4-seamer in 2018 to 2,227 rpms in 2021, 2,326 rpms on his cutter in 2018 to 2,408 rpms in 2021, and 2,151 rpms on his sinker/2-seam in 2018 to 2,229 rpms in 2021.

Velo may be down, but Adam is as effective as ever right now with his four key pitches all progressing in spin rate over a four-year span.

When we look at what his increase in spin has accumulated for him, we also see his K-rate has increased every season since 2019 from 20.5% that year to 21% in 2021. His ERA, expected ERA, hard hit %, WOBA, XWOBA, barrel %, hits per nine innings, FIP, and win percentage have all followed suit as well in steadily improving over that same timespan.

Strikeouts and swings and misses are a thing of the past for Waino, but the way he still pounds the zone and gets outs at an uber-impressive rate for a man of his age makes him a sneaky contender for an NL CY Young in 2022. Yes, I said it.

He may not be the prototypical bona fide number one ace the Cardinals need anymore, but his numbers surely suggest Wainwright is playing some of the best baseball of his life. And if he were to once again show improvement in 2022, he would certainly be entering a probable retirement in as good a shape as any pitcher in MLB history.

The Cardinals have brought in notorious old guy and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols for one final World Series run, and with Yadier Molina still behind the dish and Adam Wainwright still pumping filth, 2022 could very well wind up being a season where age defeats youth.

I think the St. Louis Cardinals are a super interesting team this year. I’ve got them winning the NL Central and being right in the World Series conversation with Wainwright leading the way on the hill. What he’s been showing the past five years suggests strongly that he still has a ton of game left in him to still be an elite pitcher in this league.