Evaluating the 2022 San Diego Padres starting rotation

In 2021, the San Diego Padres starting rotation could not pitch up to the hype. Injuries and a lack of production were the starters’ calling card all season long. On paper, the 2022 Padres rotation has the potential to be outstanding as the unit has an abundance of riches.

The key to success is limiting the length of prolonged inconsistency on the mound this season. If every starter pitches to their expected level, the San Diego Padres could have one of the top starting rotations in the National League. There is a great deal of optimism among the Friar Faithful heading into the 2022 season.

Let’s evaluate the San Diego Padres starting rotation and see where each pitcher fits within the team’s plans:

Yu Darvish

Yu Darvish’s 2021 campaign started very promisingly, but it ended with bitter frustration. At the start, Darvish pitched like an ace. He was dominant with a 7-3 record and a 2.44 ERA in 16 starts.

However, Darvish’s second half was derailed by hip and back injuries that landed him on the IL three times. His effectiveness on the mound vanished as Darvish registered a 6.16 ERA in 12 second-half starts. He rarely looked comfortable, but Darvish never used his injuries as an excuse for his struggles.

The hope is his velocity returns to peak levels in 2022. But the Padres will have to monitor Darvish’s health to preserve him for a 162-game campaign.

Sean Manaea

The acquisition of Sean Manaea from the Oakland Athletics adds another quality starter to the Friars rotation. The 30-year-old left-hander is coming off a decent season. He was 11-10 with a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts.

Manaea is effective in using his sinker and changeup to keep batters guessing at the pitch’s location. His pinpoint accuracy with each pitch gives the impression that Manaea’s fastball is far more explosive coming out of his delivery. Usually, it registers in the low 90s on most starts.

It came as no surprise that the A’s traded Manaea before the start of the season. He is eligible for free agency following the 2022 campaign, so it was better to cut your losses now than later. Reuniting with his former manager, Bob Melvin, will make the transition to San Diego a much smoother process. And Melvin wasted no time in making Manaea the No 2 starter in the rotation.

Joe Musgrove

Joe Musgrove had an outstanding first season with his hometown team, the Padres. He was 11-9 with a 3.18 ERA in 32 starts. Also, Musgrove struck out 203 batters (career-high) in 181.1 innings pitched. And he will always be indebted to the Friar Faithful for tossing the franchise’s first no-hitter last April.

So, there is not much to nitpick with Musgrove’s statistical profile. The 29-year-old has a five-pitch repertoire that gains him plus control and misses a few more bats than the league average. He possesses one of baseball’s best sliders that rarely offers hard contact from opposing batters.

Musgrove’s salary ($8.6 million) is modest compared to other top major league starters. But he is eligible to become a free agent after the season. His unknown status could make Musgrove a hot commodity at the trade deadline if the Friars season goes sideways.

Blake Snell

Blake Snell was once considered one of the better starting pitchers in the majors. He posted a 3.24 ERA in five seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays and won the Cy Young Award in 2018. The Friar Faithful was ecstatic after the Padres acquired Snell in an offseason trade.

But he never could shake off his pitching issues last season. 2021 was a disaster from the standpoint of him losing his control on the mound. Snell was 7-6 with a 4.20 ERA as his walks per nine innings went up a full point from 3.8 in 2020 to 4.8 last season.

Now, the Padres hope for a rebound season from Snell as the fourth starter in the rotation. The front office believes that moving him to a less-pressure role will help Snell regain his confidence.

Hopefully, he gets back to his former self once again.

Mike Clevinger

Mike Clevinger missed all of the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery. And his season debut will be delayed until late April or early May because of a sprained right knee that will place him on the IL.

Clevinger’s absence has limited him to four starts and 19 innings pitched as a Friar. When healthy, he loves challenging hitters with his fastball and slider. Clevinger is a hard-thrower (603 Ks in 542.1 innings) who rarely strays from the strike zone in starts.

Despite being a flyball pitcher, Clevinger keeps the ball in the yard. He has given up 58 career home runs, but that number could go down this season. As evening starts at Petco Park will provide a marine layer off the bay that lessens the threat of deep drives.

Like Musgrove, the 31-year-old starter comes with a franchise-friendly ($6.5 million) contract for this season. But Clevinger is eligible to become a free agent next winter. However, his questionable health status will make him an unlikely trade candidate at the deadline.

Other starting pitcher options

MacKenzie Gore’s prospect ranking has dropped significantly over the last two seasons. Too much has been made about his mound makeover without any substantial evidence. Gore made only four starts during this period, but that might be changing.

He had an outstanding spring training as Gore opened some eyes with a 2.00 ERA in nine innings pitched. More importantly, he struck out 11 batters with one walk allowed. Depending on the staff’s health, Gore might have pitched himself into a starting rotation role sometime this season.

Ryan Weathers is the odd man out of a role with the Friars pitching staff. He may hold some value on the trade market, but the Padres would be wise to hold onto him. Weathers will be the first recall option if a starter falters or requires an extended stay on the IL. The Friars love his versatility to work either in the rotation or out of the bullpen, which should help them remain in the NL playoff chase.

With the Opening Day trade of Chris Paddack to the Minnesota Twins, Nick Martinez becomes the Padres most experienced depth starting pitcher on the roster. For the moment, he will be the fifth starter until Clevinger returns to the fold.

Careerwise, Martinez has struggled at the major level with a 17-30 record and 4.77 ERA. But he sparkled in Japan as Martinez went 10-5 with a 1.62 ERA last season. Also, he was a silver medalist as a member of Team USA in the Olympic baseball competition last summer.

The hope for the San Diego Padres is Martinez has refined his approach on the mound to become a solid back end of the rotation option.