New York Yankees: Aaron Judge not worth big contract extension

New York Yankees star outfielder Aaron Judge recently turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million extension (plus $17 million for this season) to his current contract. As it stands right now, the three-time All-Star will be a free agent at the end of the 2022 campaign.

Judge has recently stated that he is comfortable going to free agency and listening to offers from all 30 teams. The issue is that the New York Yankees were pretty generous with the offered extension … and Aaron Judge is not worth $30.5 million a year.

Why? Well, let’s go to the numbers. While he did play in 2016 in 27 games, his rookie season was officially in 2017. Before the All-Star break of that season, Judge had created a very bright image of his future. He won the Home Run Derby and the Rookie of the Year award, slashing .284/.422/.627 with an OPS of 1.049 in 542 at-bats. He accounted for 154 hits, 52 home runs, 114 RBI, 127 walks, and 208 strikeouts. This season has, until now, been his most significant year.

But Aaron Judge is a strikeout machine. Compare him to Javier Báez, one of the top players in strikeout rate who has 956 strikeouts in nine years. Judge, in his career, is on pace to surpass Báez. He has struck out 736 times with a 29.7% strikeout percentage. The MLB average, by the way, is 22.3%.

He has a career of 26.4 WAR in 2,479 plate appearances. These stats make Judge 687th all-time in MLB history.

Judge has been in the league for seven years (including the 2016 at-bats), slashing a career .276/.386/.553 with a .939 OPS. He has 575 hits, 158 home runs, 366 RBI, 25 stolen bases, and 362 walks.

Let’s take a deep dive. If we go to Queens, we can compare Judge with Pete Alonso. In career stats, Alonso is batting .256/.346/.541 with a .888 OPS. He has 354 hits, 107 home runs, 253 RBI, five stolen bases, 156 walks, and 377 strikeouts in three seasons.

Judge’s numbers look better, but they’re not that far off. And we are not seeing Pete Alonso with a $200 million contract anytime soon.

So, why should Aaron Judge get a lucrative contract extension from the New York Yankees?

First, the Yankees have a bit of bad luck with long-term commitments — Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks, and Alex Rodriguez are names that come to mind.

Second, Judge has also missed a lot of time due to injuries. The year he most played was his rookie season with 155. Last year’s season came close with 142 games played, but he has gone less than 120 games the other seasons.

His injuries have included stress fractures, fractured ribs, and a collapsed lung. As a result, the Yankees may need to pass on Aaron Judge completely, especially since their next franchise player in the outfield, Jasson Dominguez, is working his way through the minors.

The safe bet for the Yankees is to let Judge go. New York general manager Brian Cashman tried to hang on to Gary Sanchez as much as possible and eventually traded him to the Minnesota Twins. If the Yankees look like sitting ducks by the 2022 trade deadline, Judge should be swapped for a couple of prospects.

If the Yankees don’t start the season hot, New York should explode everything and start over. After all, they have piled up some nasty contracts that are not working out for the price tag, as shown by Gerrit Cole’s recent struggles. The Yankees continue to be near the top of the teams when it comes to spending … and yet they are getting beat in the standings by the more frugal Tampa Bay Rays.

If Cashman wants to keep his job, he should let Judge walk. Let another team throw $250 million at a player who could be on the injured list for most of his contract. Cole, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson, Luis Severino, Hicks, and Judge are not the future of the Bronx Bombers. But, unfortunately, they are soon to be the past.