MLB: 6 hot starts that can maintain that level of performance
One of the storylines at the beginning of every MLB season is players who get off to hot starts. Some of those players will inevitably drop off, while others will maintain this level of production.
Here are six MLB players who are off to hot starts that can continue to perform like this.
C.J. Cron
Cron has been on fire to start the season, after a very impressive 2021. He’s slashing .333/.365/.813/1.178 with six homers, three doubles, 16 RBI, and 10 runs scored. He leads the league in homers and RBI, and also in total bases with 39. His homers have not been cheap either, as all six of his homers are labeled as no-doubters on Baseball Savant, meaning that they would be out in all 30 Major League stadiums. His average homer distance is 439 feet, with his longest so far being 466.
As you’d expect, his Savant page is nice. He’s in the 100th percentile in xSLG, 97th percentile in xwOBA, 94th percentile in xBA, 93rd percentile in barrel rate, and 87th percentile in hard hit rate. He does strike out a lot (36th percentile in strikeout rate) and he doesn’t walk very much (18th percentile in walk rate), but when you slug like that and play a pretty good first base (67th percentile in OAA), it doesn’t really matter.
Seiya Suzuki
Seiya has gotten his Major League career started with a bang. The righty is slashing .333/.500/.692/1.192 with four homers, two doubles, 12 RBI, and nine runs scored. His OPS+ is 245. He currently leads the National League in on-base percentage. One thing that really stands out early on is that he’s walked almost as many times (13) as he’s struck out (15).
His Baseball Savant page is great. He’s in the 100th percentile in walk rate, 99th percentile in chase rate and barrel rate, 94th percentile in sprint speed, and 93rd percentile in xwOBA. The one knock on him so far is that he hasn’t played well defensively, falling into the 10th percentile in OAA and DRS doesn’t like him either. I’m not too concerned about that yet, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander has missed the majority of the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t missed a beat in terms of his pitching effectiveness.
In three starts, Verlander has pitched 19 innings and allowed just 10 hits, four walks, four earned run, and struck out 20 batters. His ERA is 1.89, his FIP is 3.77, his WHIP is 0.74, and his ERA+ is 193. His Baseball Savant page looks pretty good, with eight categories (hard hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout rate, walk rate, and whiff rate) in the red. He is giving up a lot of hard contact (35th percentile average exit velo, 33rd percentile hard hit rate, and barrel rate), but since he’s not allowing many baserunners, it’s not doing much damage.
One thing that has changed about Verlander is his spin rates, which are down pretty significantly. His curveball in particular is down almost 300 RPMs, from 2,819 to 2,556. His fastball and slider are also down about 100 RPMs each.
Carlos Rodon
Carlos Rodon had a breakout season in 2021, and he’s cementing himself as one of the best pitchers in the game in 2022. He’s gotten off to hot starts in each of the last two seasons.
Over three starts, Rodon has pitched 17 innings and allowed just eight hits, six walks, two earned runs, and he’s struck out an MLB-best 29 batters. His ERA is 1.06, his FIP is 0.90, his WHIP is 0.82, and his ERA+ is a crazy 368.
His Baseball Savant page is one of the best I’ve seen early in the season. He’s in the 96th percentile in xBA, strikeout rate, and fastball velocity. He’s in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate, and 91st percentile in xERA, xwOBA, and xSLG. He’s in the 89th percentile in average exit velo, 84th percentile in fastball spin, 83rd percentile in chase rate, 76th percentile in hard hit rate, and 74th percentile in barrel rate. His lowest category is walk rate, in which he’s exactly average in the 50th percentile.
Francisco Lindor
Mr. Smile is grinning from ear to ear after his great start to the season.
Lindor is slashing .304/.403/.589/.992 with four homers and doubles, 11 RBI, and 12 runs scored. His OPS+ is 193. He’s walked more times (nine) than he’s struck out (eight). He’s also stolen three bases, which is easily on pace to beat his 10 total from last season.
His Baseball Savant page is showing mixed results. He’s in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate, 86th percentile in whiff rate, and 82nd percentile in walk rate, which are all excellent in terms of plate discipline. His average exit velocity (38th percentile), hard hit rate (28th percentile), and barrel rate (43rd percentile) are all low, so we may see a little regression in terms of power numbers, but his xwOBA (74th percentile), xBA (69th percentile), and xSLG (72nd percentile) are good so he will keep hitting.
Andres Munoz
Munoz is another guy who had Tommy John surgery early in his career, but now he’s back and thriving in The Show.
In six relief innings, Munoz has allowed just three hits, two walks, two earned runs, and struck out 11 batters. His ERA is 3.00, his FIP is 2.54, his WHIP is 0.83, and his ERA+ is 123. Munoz has electric stuff, with a fastball that sits 100+ and a sharp slider with downward tilt in the mid-80’s.
If you’re interested in hot starts, this is a Baseball Savant page you’ll want to look at. He’s only got two categories below 74th percentile. His barrel rate is in the 24th percentile and his walk rate is 47th. Other than that, everything is red. He’s in the 99th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate, 94th percentile in chase rate, 93rd percentile in xBA, 91st percentile in hard hit rate, 85th percentile in xERA and xwOBA, and 78th percentile in average exit velocity. Simply put, he’s been nasty. He’s going to be a problem at the back of the Seattle Mariners bullpen for a long time.
Next. The 13 pitchers Miguel Cabrera owned in a single at-bat. dark
Those are just a few players who have gotten off to hot starts that can continue performing at that level. Who else do you think can continue their hot starts? Let us know in the comments section below.