MLB: 6 hot starts that can maintain that level of performance

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander has missed the majority of the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t missed a beat in terms of his pitching effectiveness.

In three starts, Verlander has pitched 19 innings and allowed just 10 hits, four walks, four earned run, and struck out 20 batters. His ERA is 1.89, his FIP is 3.77, his WHIP is 0.74, and his ERA+ is 193. His Baseball Savant page looks pretty good, with eight categories (hard hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout rate, walk rate, and whiff rate) in the red. He is giving up a lot of hard contact (35th percentile average exit velo, 33rd percentile hard hit rate, and barrel rate), but since he’s not allowing many baserunners, it’s not doing much damage.

One thing that has changed about Verlander is his spin rates, which are down pretty significantly. His curveball in particular is down almost 300 RPMs, from 2,819 to 2,556. His fastball and slider are also down about 100 RPMs each.

Carlos Rodon

Carlos Rodon had a breakout season in 2021, and he’s cementing himself as one of the best pitchers in the game in 2022. He’s gotten off to hot starts in each of the last two seasons.

Over three starts, Rodon has pitched 17 innings and allowed just eight hits, six walks, two earned runs, and he’s struck out an MLB-best 29 batters. His ERA is 1.06, his FIP is 0.90, his WHIP is 0.82, and his ERA+ is a crazy 368.

His Baseball Savant page is one of the best I’ve seen early in the season. He’s in the 96th percentile in xBA, strikeout rate, and fastball velocity. He’s in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate, and 91st percentile in xERA, xwOBA, and xSLG. He’s in the 89th percentile in average exit velo, 84th percentile in fastball spin, 83rd percentile in chase rate, 76th percentile in hard hit rate, and 74th percentile in barrel rate. His lowest category is walk rate, in which he’s exactly average in the 50th percentile.