MLB: After Miguel Cabrera, the coming 3,000-hit drought
On Saturday, Miguel Cabrera became the 33rd MLB player to reach 3,000 hits. He may also be the last to do so for a very long time.
Cabrera’s first inning single against the Colorado Rockies moved him into select company. He is only the third Tiger, after Ty Cobb and Al Kaline, to get to 3,000.
The 3,000 hit club has been a rapidly swelling fraternity. Just since 2010, Cabrera is the sixth person to reach that milestone, joining Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Ichiro Suzuki, Adrian Beltre, and Albert Pujols. Six others did so between 1999 and 2010.
But there is every indication that the pace of 3,000 hitters is about to grind to an abrupt and extended halt. At best, no MLB player will reach 3,000 for another six to seven years.
Even that would be the longest period without a 3,000 hit club member in three decades. And it’s not out of the question that the next player to reach 3,000 hits has not yet put on an MLB uniform.
For starters, consider the players who follow Cabrera on the list of active players with the most career hits. Setting aside Pujols and Cabrera, here are the 10 leaders. Their age is also listed.
Player Age Hits Needs
Robinson Cano 39 2,630 370
Yadier Molina 39 2,116 884
Joey Votto 38 2,035 965
Nelson Cruz 41 1,924 1,076
Elvis Andrus 33 1,875 1,125
Andrew McCutchen 35 1,838 1,162
Evan Longoria 36 1,818 1,182
Jose Altuve 31 1,783 1,217
Of those 10, only Altuve’s chances are worth discussing. Between 2014 and 2017, he annually led the American League in hits, averaging 211 per season.
If he could average 200 hits, Altuve would get to 3,000 early in 2028, his age-38 season.
The problem is that age and injuries have caused Altuve to fall off that 200-hit pace. In the three full seasons since 2018, he’s averaged only about 133 games and 160 hits per season. His 2022 start — six hits in 41 plate appearances, a .167 average — does not provide reason to believe he will revert to his old form for any extended period.
And even at 160 hits per season, he would not reach 3,000 until 2029, when Altuve would be a rare bird indeed, a 39-year-old middle infielder.
Beyond Altuve, the odds get longer. Here is a look at the prospects for 3,000-hit club membership of 10 candidates who might be viewed as plausible. The candidates are presented in the order of hits they have already produced.
Freddie Freeman. In his age-32 season, Freeman has 1,722 hits, so he needs 1,278. Assuming he plays to age 40, he could get there by averaging 142 hits per year.
Freeman’s recent record makes that possible. He got 180 hits in 2021, and he has averaged that many in the three full seasons since 2018. His chances, then, lay in continuing to produce at the level he has done so for the rest of his career.
Paul Goldschmidt. In his age-34 season, Goldschmidt has 1,581 hits, so he needs 1,419 more. To get there, however, he would need to average 200 hits through his age-40 season. That would be a huge course correction for Goldschmidt, who has not yet had a 200-hit season.
Manny Machado. If any current player is to get to 3,000, Machado may be the best Vegas bet. He has 1,445 hits at age 29. Assuming Machado plays to age 40, he would have to average 141 hits per season to get there. Machado had 150 hits in 2019 and 157 in 2021, so his recent track record at least gives him a chance.
Mike Trout. Trout’s chances are, ironically, damaged by his superb selectivity. He walks so many times that Trout only has 1,428 base hits at age 30, leaving him 1,572 hits short. To reach 3,000, he would need to average about 160 base hits through age 40, a number Trout has not approached in any season since 2016.
Nolan Arenado. At age 31, Arenado has 1,376 hits, leaving him 1,624 short. He would need to average 180 hits per season through age 40 to reach 3,000; he had 151 hits last year.
Bryce Harper. Since he is not yet 30, Harper’s chances are intriguing. He has 1,286 hits, leaving him 1,714 short. Assuming he plays the remainder of this year and 10 more MLB seasons after that, Harper could reach 3,000 by averaging 156 hits per season. That figure, however, is one Harper has not reached since 2015; he had 151 hits last year.
Mookie Betts. With 1,162 hits to his credit, Betts, 29, needs 1,832 more. Assuming he plays 11 more seasons, that equates to 167 hits per season. Betts has reached that figure three times, but not since 2018, when he had 180. In 2021, he hit .264 with just 123 hits.
Juan Soto. Want to bet a long shot? Since he is only 23, Soto has almost his entire career in front of him. In his three full seasons, he has averaged 144 hits, a number held down in part by the fact that he also has a very selective approach at the plate.
But that very plate discipline could slow Soto’s chances of reaching 3,000. If you assume Soto plays full-time for another 17 seasons and if you assume he continues to produce hits at his current rate — two huge assumptions, for the record — he would still not get to 3,000 until 2039, his age 40 season.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. Like Soto, Guerrero is just 23 and barely into his third full season (not counting 2020). He has 388 hits, topping out at 188 in his exceptional 2021. Give Guerrero a generous 180 hits annually and he can get to 3,000, but that would not happen until 2037.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Only 22, Tatis has just 303 hits. A 2019 rookie, injuries have limited his availability and also his hit total, which peaked at 135 in 2021. He started 2022 on the disabled list.
Next. Cabrera's historic day including glimpses of past, present, and future for Tigers. dark
So you first must assume Tatis can stay healthy for an extended period, then assume he can produce on the level of 180 hits per season. At that rate, he could reach 3,000 toward the end of 2036, when Tatis is 37. But as with Soto, those are two monumental ifs.