MLB: Breaking down 4 of the game’s top pitching prospects
Early on in the 2022 MLB regular season, several teams have trotted out their top pitching prospects for their Major League debuts.
In this article, we’re going to go through four of MLB’s top pitching prospects and break down what makes them so special … or perhaps not so special.
The facts and figures I will use will be as of April 26, just in case you happen to stumble upon this after each stud rookie pitcher’s next starts, and all of this info can be found directly on Baseball Savant.
Let’s get started and begin in dreary Seattle……
Matt Brash, Seattle Mariners
Brash is the Mariners’ number 6 overall prospect according to MLB.com and the number 3 pitching prospect behind George Kirby and Emerson Hancock.
He has gotten off to a decent start thus far, pitching to a 1-1 record with a 4.20 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 15 innings.
Even in his one loss against the White Sox in his debut, he allowed just a pair of earned runs in 5.1 innings of work with six strikeouts also to his credit.
Like many young pitchers, walks are what is seeming to be his issue out of the gate. He had six against the Astros in his second game in just 5.1 innings, and then he followed that up with four against the Royals in 4.1 innings during his most recent start.
Control is not there right now, but that is an issue that can be cleaned up, especially with the caliber of stuff Brash has at his disposal.
If you’ve read any of my work here on Call to the Pen, you already know how much I love me some spin.
The fastball spin for Brash is not there quite yet, sitting at just 2,206 rpm (well below average). However, the velo is certainly plentiful as he’s sitting pretty at close to 96 mph on his number one pitch.
But have no fear. Brash has himself elite level spin on both of his breaking pitches, and that is going to make him a serious weapon in this Mariners rotation for years to come … once he irons out his command of course.
The typical rpm rate for curveballs in today’s game is around 2,500 rpm give or take, while the typical slider spin is closer to 2,400 rpm.
Brash, in just three professional starts and 138 pitches between the curve and slider, has demonstrated 2,812 rpm of spin on his slider and 2,885 rpm on his curve. It cannot get more elite than that, especially for a rookie.
He throws hard and has electric secondary pitches. Once he becomes more comfortable and reels in his control, Matt Brash could be a top-of-the-line starter in this league.
Hunter Greene Cincinnati Reds
If you haven’t yet watched Hunter Greene throw, I suggest you run to a television as fast as possible the next time he starts … before, you know, the Reds get rid of him like they do everybody else that’s good.
Greene had some control issues in his last starts versus the Cardinals, issuing four walks. His ERA is also a bit inflated right now at 5.27 after allowing eight earned runs in 13.2 innings of work.
And we also have to keep in mind he has faced the Braves, Dodgers, and Cardinals (three of the better lineups in baseball) when we think about that 5.27 ERA.
But man oh man, what he’s displaying is some really incredible stuff despite what the stat sheets say.
Obviously, the velo is going to pop off your screen, and the easiness of it when he’s sitting 98-99 and hitting upwards of 100 mph with seemingly almost no effort truly signifies that this dude has a gift.
The fastball spin is well-above-average at 2,404 rpm. For a rookie to come in after going through Tommy John and sit 99 while maintaining spin rate above 2,400 rpm, it is indicative of a pitcher who’s ceiling has not even been thought of yet. That’s how high it is.
The velo is there. The fastball spin is there. The changeup spin is even there above 2,000 rpm (the average changeup spin is in the 1,700 rpm range).
What Hunter needs to do first and foremost is stay healthy. He’s been battered and tattered in his young career, and he could very well be a ticking time bomb if he isn’t brought along properly.
Then he needs to make sure he is in command of his fastball. That is his best pitch and he cannot wind up like Aroldis Chapman not being able to command at-bats with elite level stuff at his disposal.
And then, over time, the slider will come along. It’s just south of 2,400 rpm, which is below average, but the velo on it is solid around 86 mph.
Once he continues to get healthier, that spin should increase to well-above-average.
Fingers crossed Hunter Greene is able to stay healthy!
Nick Lodolo Cincinnati Reds
We just talked about the Reds’ top prospect in Hunter Greene. How about their number two prospect in Nick Lodolo?
As much as I love what I’ve seen from Greene, I actually might like Lodolo a little better. Certainly from a “staying healthy” perspective.
He is sitting about 94-95 on a two-seamer that he’s been pounding at a 59.3% rate while racking up above-average rpm at 2,319 … there’s a Monsters Inc. joke in there somewhere, but I can’t think of one right now.
The average sinker/two-seam spin rate is in the 2,200 range, so anything above 2,300 rpm is obviously very good.
Then we move on to his second pitch in the curveball that’s coming in at 2,701 rpm. Not as elite as Matt Brash, but still quite elite considering the average is in the 2,500 range.
Finally, his changeup spin is at 1,962, which is about 200 rpm above-average.
With Greene, I get a super hard fastball with well-above-average spin and the forecast of that spin increasing for every pitch pending health. With Lodolo here, I already have a guy who’s got top-level spin on three of his pitches.
Lodolo is in Greene’s shadow right now, but I think it’s fair to say he could one day surpass Greene and maybe even Tyler Mahle to become the Reds’ number one starter.
For both Greene and Lodolo, walks have been pretty good with a slight elevation (no real worries there as of now), velo and spin have been solid, but naturally they have taken some early lumps.
If I’m the Reds, I’m thrilled with these two guys to lead my pitching staff for the years to come.
MacKenzie Gore San Diego Padres
We’ll end this article with MacKenzie Gore, the Padres number one pitching prospect … and it’s been that way for a few years now.
I kind of feel he’s dipped out of the spotlight a bit, and when I show you some spin data, I think you’ll see why.
Statistically, he’s actually been the best guy on this list I’ve presented for you today at 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings of work. His velo has also been above where I thought it would be as he’s sat 95 on the fastball thus far, knowing he was a 92-93 guy coming up.
Unfortunately, I find myself a little “iffy” on him right now after seeing his low spin rates across all four of his pitches used thus far.
He’s coming in at 2,197 rpm on his fastball, which could very well jump up over time. But what does it for me is the fact that his curveball is only generating 2,285 rpm of spin (2,500 is the average), and his slider is generating an eye-opening 1,891 rpm of spin (average is around 2,400).
Those are two pitches that I’m not sure will ever reach above-average spin, or even average spin.
So, when it comes to what will make a guy like Gore successful in this league, I have to think he needs to maintain command of the strike zone and continue learning to pitch “smarter” rather than relying on “stuff.”
It’s doable. I’m certainly not out on him. I just see an uphill battle ensuing for him as time goes on with below-average spin if he cannot excel in pounding the zone.
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I’m skeptical, but the Padres join the Reds and Mariners with bright futures ahead of them thanks to their young pitching prospects.