Each MLB team is roughly 30 games into their season, or roughly 18.5 percent through the campaign. As we saw in 2021 with the San Diego Padres, good teams can fall flat on their face after a great start (they were 30-50 from July through the end of the season after they went 49-33 through June) and in 2019, we saw that teams can come back after a bad start (the Washington Nationals won 93 games and won the World Series after they started the season with a 19-31 record.
So while these four teams could easily make a comeback and do great things in 2022, these teams should be hitting the panic button after their first month.
The Boston Red Sox should be hitting the panic button
The Boston Red Sox are 10-19 entering play on Tuesday. That is last in the AL East and the second-worst record in the American League.
As a team, the Red Sox only have an OPS+ of 79 and a lot of their key bats are struggling. Bobby Dalbec has a .440 OPS and an OPS+ of 29. Their big offseason signing, Trevor Story, isn’t doing much better (.545 OPS, 59 OPS+). Their best hitting outfielder is Alex Verdugo and he has been awful at the plate too (.576 OPS, 65 OPS+).
Their rotation hasn’t been great either (17th in fWAR and FIP) but the bullpen has been the best part of the team.
The Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies (13-16) are another team that should be hitting the panic button. While their record isn’t as bad as the Red Sox or the next team on our list, the Phillies have a different problem: their pitching staff.
The bullpen has actually been decent to start the season after they have been atrocious for years but the rotation has not been good. They are 18th in ERA and currently, their ace and fourth starter (Zack Wheeler and Zach Eflin) are on the injured list.
Overall, they are 10th in the NL in team ERA and have an ERA+ of 97.
The Detroit Tigers
Of the four teams, the Detroit Tigers should be panicking the most.
In a very winnable division, the Tigers are only 8-20, which is the worst record in the AL. The team, as a whole, has been awful at the plate with an OPS+ around 80. Last year’s breakout star (Akil Baddoo) was just sent down to Triple-A Toledo since he has been so bad at the plate and Jonathan Schoop, Tucker Barnhart, Spencer Torkelson, and Jeimer Candelario all have an OPS+ below 80.
On the pitching front, their bullpen has been great but their rotation has been flat-out atrocious.
Their strikeout rate is in the bottom five in baseball as is their home run rate. They are in the bottom 10 in fWAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and a number of other categories as well. They have an ERA+ of 80, or 20 percent below league average.
The Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners (13-17) defied all odds in 2021 when they went 90-72 despite allowing 51 more runs than they scored. When they entered Monday, though, they were the exact opposite (three games under .500 but with a positive run differential of +1).
They should be panicking for a few reasons.
Offensively, their primary catcher Tom Murphy was just placed on the IL with a dislocated shoulder. Mitch Haniger is back on the IL (again). Former top prospect Jarred Kelenic has still not found out how to hit at the MLB level either.
More of an issue, though, is their pitching staff. Logan Gilbert has been great and Chris Flexen has been too. But the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, and rookie Matt Brash (who has already been sent down to Triple-A)? Not so much.
Their bullpen has been even worse. Of the five relievers with double-digit appearances entering Monday, only one had an ERA+ that was above 95 (or five percent below league average). They have some relievers that have come in recently and been better but they have really small sample sizes (seven innings or less).
For the Mariners to reverse their 20+ year drought of not making the playoffs and for the other teams as well, things will have to turn around here soon to be the teams that people thought they’d be entering the season last month.