Grading and revisiting the San Diego Padres-Minnesota Twins trade

With the news that Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack has undergone Tommy John surgery and will be lost until likely the 2024 season, let’s look back at the trade between the Twins and San Diego Padres that brought Paddack to the Twin Cities.

Grading the trade between the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres involving Chris Paddack, Taylor Rogers, and Emilio Pagan

On April 7 (Opening Day for several MLB teams), the San Diego Padres sent starting pitcher Chris Paddack and reliever Emilio Pagan, along with prospect Brayan Medina, to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for reliever Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker along with $6.6 million. At the time, both teams received an A grade for the trade.

But does that grade change in light of Paddack’s injury? Let’s take a look at the statistics.

The Twins saw Paddack start five games after the trade, posting a 4.03 ERA/1.70 FIP/1.209 WHIP while allowing 25 hits in 22.1 innings. He walked just two while striking out 20. He left his last start on May 8 after just 2.1 innings with elbow inflammation, giving up five hits and three runs in 2.1 innings against the Oakland A’s.

With Paddack on the shelf, the trade value for this season at least will land on the shoulders of Emilio Pagan who, entering Thursday’s play, had earned five saves in six opportunities while posting a 1.54 ERA/5.32 FIP/1.457 WHIP in 11.2 innings. That higher FIP, however, suggests that the 31-year-old right-hander has had some good luck on the mound this season, so that’s definitely something to keep an eye on as the campaign moves along.

Medina, meanwhile, is in the Florida Complex League.

San Diego has seen Rogers take over the closer role and be very effective in it, posting a 0.56 ERA and 675 ERA+ in 16.0 innings. He is tied with Milwaukee’s Josh Hader for the National League lead in saves and has struck out 18 while walking just two.

Rooker is slashing .255/.349/.527 at Triple-A El Paso with four home runs and 11 RBI and could well provide the Padres with some outfield depth at some point this season.

Handing out the grades

With Paddack out of the equation because of his injury, the trade now primarily involves a pair of closers (Rogers and Pagan). It’s hard to not give the Padres an A grade for what Rogers has brought to the team. Minnesota, on the other hand, had its grade heavily impacted by Paddack’s injury. Pagan has helped the Twins get to the top of the American League Central, but can he keep dealing? We’ll move Minnesota’s trade grade down to a B-minus.