Sure, at least to this point in the campaign, this has been a season to forget on many levels for the Cincinnati Reds. However, as bad as things have been in 2022, it could be worse for the Reds when looking ahead to the postseason.
According to FanGraphs, the Cincinnati Reds have a better shot at making the postseason than four other MLB teams
Need a reason for optimism, Cincinnati Reds fans? Well, don’t look at the MLB-worst 11 wins the team racked up through its first 37 games. Just take a peek at this page on FanGraphs which lists the postseason odds for all 30 teams. Scroll down the standings and you will see that the Reds still have a 0.4 percent chance (entering play on Friday) to make the postseason.
No. Seriously. They do. It’s come down quite a bit from the 7.9 percent at the start of the season, but there is still a heartbeat.
When you’re finished shaking your head about that, take a look at the rest of the standings and each team’s respective chances of making the postseason and you will notice that the Reds aren’t alone in the longest of long shots room. In fact, they are actually better off with their chances at playing meaningful baseball in October than four other teams, including one in their own division.
FanGraphs says that the Baltimore Orioles are already cooked, giving them a 0.0 chance of making the postseason. Just ahead of Baltimore is the 0.1 percent chance owned by the Oakland Athletics and the Washington Nationals. And then, nestled between the A’s and Nationals and Cincinnati’s minuscule chance is the Pittsburgh Pirates, with a 0.3 percent chance.
Yes, despite being in the same division as Cincinnati and winning five more games to this point in the season than the Reds, the Pirates have a smaller chance of punching their postseason ticket than the team that started the season 3-22. Maybe it’s because the Reds have already won four of the seven games played between them and the Pirates in 2022?
Hey, FanGraphs even says that the Reds have a 0.1 percent chance to win the National League Central, so keep those hopes up in Cincinnati and cue the Jim Carrey, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” GIF.