What Will The Miami Marlins Decide To Do About Pablo Lopez?
Do Miami Marlins Extend Pablo Lopez?
First off, should the Miami Marlins simply lock up another piece of their young core by offering Pablo Lopez an extension?
On this side of his recent arbitration case, it’s admittedly hard to see happening. Pre-hearing would have been the best time to do that in season, and if this current season progresses as impressively as it has thus far for Lopez, he’s only to get more expensive by the start. There is still a window for an extension he signs to be more reflective of past injury than this 2022 level of production, but it’s closing fast.
However, even if Pablo does rattle off a reasonably full season, it’s still a trick he’s done just once. Consequently, we should be talking less money than the 5-yr, $56 million extension Sandy Alcantara signed this offseason. Certainly, it wouldn’t be any more, and the Alcantara deal is already arguably one of the best bargains going in MLB. Even if Lopez is just a little better than his career average (3.73 ERA, 3.62 FIP) going forward…that’s honestly worth at least $40 million. If he’s appreciably better, and is the pitcher Marlins fans have seen these past two seasons, he’d be just as much of a bargain as Sandy.
That’s obviously an extremely valuable asset to have. One you can and should build a team around. The longer they wait, the more likely they are to be priced out.
Bottom-line, the case for a Lopez extension comes down to proven production. He has proven he is at least that 3.73 ERA/3.62 FIP pitcher. Miami’s plethora of pitching prospects…have not. Even the aforementioned Trevor Rogers is starting to give grounds to question just how much stock can be put in that 2021 breakout season. Heading into the season, when many thought Lopez looked particularly expendable, Rogers was a big part of that argument. A quarter of the season later, and a really good case can be made for flipping that evaluation.
When he’s here and healthy, the Miami Marlins know what to expect from Pablo Lopez. It’s a compelling reason to keep him for the next four to five seasons.