The biggest surprise and disappointment for every American League team
Chicago White Sox
Surprise: Dylan Cease
This is the potential Chicago waiting for Cease to reach. His ERA does not show it at 4.24, but his other numbers suggest he is pitching much better. His strikeouts are slightly higher than last year at 13.69 K/9 compared to 12.28. The main numbers to focus on are his 2.75 FIP and 2.72 SIERA, along with his xERA and xFIP at 2.73 and 2.72. Cease looks like he could be the best pitcher in their rotation.
I also looked at Michael Kopech, but he is basically the inverse. His other numbers don’t look as strong to say his current play will be sustainable.
Disappointment: Yasmani Grandal
Overall this team has not been hitting as well, but Grandal is a particularly sour point. His slash line from last season at .240/.420/.520 is on the other side of the spectrum compared to this year at .174/.272/.235. Expected numbers don’t see much underneath them either. Surprisingly enough, his walk rate is also the lowest since 2017. Hopefully, he can find that touch again at the plate soon.
Cleveland Guardians
Surprise: Andrés Giménez
Giménez was never expected to be this level of a hitter by scouts. Still, here he is as one of the best hitters in the Guardians lineup. Giménez has a .797 OPS with a 132 OPS+, 3rd on the team only behind JRAM and Owen Miller. The defense was always a strong point with him, but if this hitting level is here to stay, then Giménez looks to be a good piece for the future.
I did also consider Josh Naylor for this, but Giménez is hitting so this well is more surprising to me than Naylor figuring it out in the majors. Owen Miller was also attractive, but his expected numbers do not see him continuing his hot streak at the plate.
Disappointment: Franmil Reyes
Only having three home runs through his first 35 games is quite surprising. His home run per fly ball percentage is 18 points lower than last season as 12% and 15% lower than his career average. His expected slugging percentage, .407, does look much better than his actual one, .278, but even that is much lower than last season at .509. Cleveland is hitting well despite his struggles, but they could use his pop in the lineup.
Detroit Tigers
Surprise: Tarik Skubal
Skubal has been the shiniest star in a Tigers rotation full of young talent with 10 K/9 and only 1.61 BB/9, along with a 2.22 ERA and 2.00 FIP. Using his slider and sinker more than the four-seam has been great, tunneling those pitches well and messing with the batters’ vision, causing them to chase more. Hopefully, he will be back in the rotation soon.
I also considered Cabrera due to his sustained success even in his age 39 season. As well as Harold Castro, but he has missed about 18 games.
Disappointment: Javier Báez
This might be a long-running point for me as I talked about Javy in the offseason. His defense still seems good by the eye test, but metrics don’t love it. His hitting is the big issue. He has a .562 OPS and 63 OPS+ with expected numbers not looking any better. Baéz was brought in to be a key piece for this team, which has not worked out well so far.
I also considered Eduardo Rodriguez, but he has been closer to an average starter than Javy has been to being an average hitter. I also think there were high expectations for Baez.
Kansas City Royals
Surprise: Hunter Dozier
You could definitely argue for Benintendi to be here instead. My main argument is that Dozier finding his way back to his 2019 form is way more surprising. Benny Biceps has done well to up his batting average and on-base percentage. Still, his xWOBA is basically the same as last year.
On the other hand, Dozier brought all of his slash line numbers back up and is basically on par with his expected numbers. Once again, he has become a serviceable player after looking like he fell out of the league.
Disappointment: Salvador Perez
Salvy signed the largest deal in franchise history, had the most home runs ever in a season by a primary catcher last year, and has put up a stinker in 2022. He has the lowest xSLG and xWOBA since the stats came to existence in 2015 and has the lowest OPS+ of his career. Kansas City is still rebuilding, so they don’t need him to be great, but it sure would be nice.
Nicky Lopez could have been here instead, but he is technically underperforming his expected numbers. Salvy regressing this much is just way more unexpected and disappointing after the past two seasons.
Minnesota Twins
Surprise: Max Kepler
Did you know Max Kepler was playing this well? He has the third-highest OPS+ (135) on his team for players who have played at least 30 games and leads the Twins in bWAR. Even with that, he is underperforming both his xWOBA and xSLG. His slugging is actually 130 points lower. Not to mention he has maintained his excellent defense. This could be his best season if he can get closer to his expected numbers.
Luis Arraez was a candidate, but his xBA and xWOBA are much lower than where he is now, and I am not sure if he can sustain that. The same sentiment goes for Joe Ryan on the pitching side.
Disappointment: Alex Kiriloff
Like Bobby Dalbec, Kiriloff had an okay run last year. Through 59 games, he performed worse than expected by quite a bit, but it seemed like there was potential for this season as he had a .366 xWOBA and .538 xSLG. Through 10 games this season, it was not working out. There were only five hits, none for extra bases, and striking out almost 40% of the time.
He seems to be finding his footing in Triple-A again, but his spot might have been taken by either one of Nick Gordon or Trevor Larnach.