The biggest surprise and disappointment for every American League team

After two months of the season, we have started to see what or who has done well this year. Some players have been a surprise early on, with young players taking the league by storm or others coming back from poor play in previous seasons.

On the other side of the ball, we have seen players brought up as top prospects and not be productive, or even big names come in from trades or free agency and not bring the same level of play to their new teams.

There can be multiple options to apply to each of these two areas with every team. I will mention some of them if I feel it was a close race and wanted to bring attention to more than one player, but it is all just from my perspective, and you might see it differently … especially if you are a fan of a specific team and watch these players on a more regular basis.

Let me know of any other potential players who could have been included in this article in the comment section. I would love to have a conversation with anyone who reads this article about baseball.

We will start in the American League East with the biggest surprise and disappointment for every team.

Baltimore Orioles

Surprise: Austin Hays

Hays has come into the season, hitting much better than in previous years. He currently has the highest OPS+ on the team, bumping it up 23 points compared to his last season. Hopefully, he can get his defense back to his 2020 form, but that might be difficult with the new wall in left field. It would be interesting to see if they look to extend him.

Disappointment: Cedric Mullins

In 2021 Ceddy really broke out for the O’s, making the All-Star team and finishing the season with a Silver Slugger award and ninth in American League in MVP voting. This season has not gone as well, losing his stroke at the plate to only being about an average hitter and not performing as well defensively. He looked like he might be a cornerstone for Baltimore but, at the moment, seems more like an average player.

Boston Red Sox

Surprise: J.D Martinez

Martinez has been a fantastic hitter for several years now, but I do not think anyone expected him to be as good as he has been. He is currently fourth in all of MLB in OPS at 1.020 and tied for second on his team in bWAR, which is impressive for a guy who only plays designated hitter. It is a contract year, so that might be some additional motivation for him.

Michael Wacha has also been great this season, but I don’t see it lasting, so I went with Martinez instead.

Disappointment: Bobby Dalbec

I considered going with Nathan Eovaldi here, but his underlying numbers look strong enough to see a future turnaround.

Dalbec was more of a clear choice as he has been awful at the plate after a solid rookie campaign. Sometimes these things can be predictable, especially for a young player with little experience. However, he actually underperformed expected numbers last season, so I figured his numbers would look pretty similar if he were to regress. Boston might have to swap him out for top prospect Triston Casas pretty soon.

New York Yankees

Surprise: Luis Severino

Gleyber Torres was definitely an option here as he completely turned his play around. Still, I think Severino has to be the choice after all his injuries and basically not playing since 2018. Sevvy has returned and looked almost exactly like the pitcher he was four years ago, a rotation leader once again.

Disappointment: Kyle Higashioka

There are some other names to consider for this in Gallo, Hicks, and Loaisiga, but I have reasons for not choosing them. Gallo and Jonny Lasagna have solid underlying numbers to suggest a potential turnaround. And I don’t think Yankee fans expected much out of Hicks anyway for him to be that disappointing.

Higgy has shown promise on the plate, with him underperforming in previous seasons to suggest he could even be better at the plate than he has been. However, he has gone the other direction, losing all production he had with the bat.

Tampa Bay Rays

Surprise: Shane McClanahan

After a promising rookie season, Shane has turned it up a notch. While writing this, he has a 2.06 ERA and 2.52 FIP, also leading the league in strikeouts, with his expected numbers matching up well. His xFIP and SIERA actually look even better at 1.86 and 2.05. The Rays have found yet another stud pitcher to lead their rotation.

Disappointment: Mike Zunino

What a year he had in 2021, eh? Over 30 home runs, a .860 OPS and 4.5 FanGraphs WAR. He has been the antithesis of that season so far in 2022. A .536 OPS with only four home runs, and even his typically great framing has been worse based on Baseball Savant. Francisco Mejia has been solid in covering up for Zunino. Still, him even being an average hitter would help out this lineup.

Toronto Blue Jays

Surprise: Santiago Espinal

Last season he finished as a surprise, and he seems to be doubling down. His numbers are relatively similar regarding his slash line at the plate, but the underlying numbers show the difference. He has already matched his total for doubles and home runs to last season in 49 fewer games. Changing it to be on par or slightly above his expected numbers from overperforming last year. On top of his plus defense, the Jays have a lock at second base.

Disappointment: Jose Berrios

I am sure this is not the type of production Toronto was expecting when they signed Berrios to a seven-year extension. He is currently sitting at a 4.75 ERA and 4.51 FIP, with expected numbers looking about the same. He has been solid in his past two outings, so hopefully, that is a sign he is starting to get back on track.

Chicago White Sox

Surprise: Dylan Cease

This is the potential Chicago waiting for Cease to reach. His ERA does not show it at 4.24, but his other numbers suggest he is pitching much better. His strikeouts are slightly higher than last year at 13.69 K/9 compared to 12.28. The main numbers to focus on are his 2.75 FIP and 2.72 SIERA, along with his xERA and xFIP at 2.73 and 2.72. Cease looks like he could be the best pitcher in their rotation.

I also looked at Michael Kopech, but he is basically the inverse. His other numbers don’t look as strong to say his current play will be sustainable.

Disappointment: Yasmani Grandal

Overall this team has not been hitting as well, but Grandal is a particularly sour point. His slash line from last season at .240/.420/.520 is on the other side of the spectrum compared to this year at .174/.272/.235. Expected numbers don’t see much underneath them either. Surprisingly enough, his walk rate is also the lowest since 2017. Hopefully, he can find that touch again at the plate soon.

Cleveland Guardians

Surprise: Andrés Giménez

Giménez was never expected to be this level of a hitter by scouts. Still, here he is as one of the best hitters in the Guardians lineup. Giménez has a .797 OPS with a 132 OPS+, 3rd on the team only behind JRAM and Owen Miller. The defense was always a strong point with him, but if this hitting level is here to stay, then Giménez looks to be a good piece for the future.

I did also consider Josh Naylor for this, but Giménez is hitting so this well is more surprising to me than Naylor figuring it out in the majors. Owen Miller was also attractive, but his expected numbers do not see him continuing his hot streak at the plate.

Disappointment: Franmil Reyes

Only having three home runs through his first 35 games is quite surprising. His home run per fly ball percentage is 18 points lower than last season as 12% and 15% lower than his career average. His expected slugging percentage, .407, does look much better than his actual one, .278, but even that is much lower than last season at .509. Cleveland is hitting well despite his struggles, but they could use his pop in the lineup.

Detroit Tigers

Surprise: Tarik Skubal

Skubal has been the shiniest star in a Tigers rotation full of young talent with 10 K/9 and only 1.61 BB/9, along with a 2.22 ERA and 2.00 FIP. Using his slider and sinker more than the four-seam has been great, tunneling those pitches well and messing with the batters’ vision, causing them to chase more. Hopefully, he will be back in the rotation soon.

I also considered Cabrera due to his sustained success even in his age 39 season. As well as Harold Castro, but he has missed about 18 games.

Disappointment: Javier Báez

This might be a long-running point for me as I talked about Javy in the offseason. His defense still seems good by the eye test, but metrics don’t love it. His hitting is the big issue. He has a .562 OPS and 63 OPS+ with expected numbers not looking any better. Baéz was brought in to be a key piece for this team, which has not worked out well so far.

I also considered Eduardo Rodriguez, but he has been closer to an average starter than Javy has been to being an average hitter. I also think there were high expectations for Baez.

Kansas City Royals

Surprise: Hunter Dozier

You could definitely argue for Benintendi to be here instead. My main argument is that Dozier finding his way back to his 2019 form is way more surprising. Benny Biceps has done well to up his batting average and on-base percentage. Still, his xWOBA is basically the same as last year.

On the other hand, Dozier brought all of his slash line numbers back up and is basically on par with his expected numbers. Once again, he has become a serviceable player after looking like he fell out of the league.

Disappointment: Salvador Perez

Salvy signed the largest deal in franchise history, had the most home runs ever in a season by a primary catcher last year, and has put up a stinker in 2022. He has the lowest xSLG and xWOBA since the stats came to existence in 2015 and has the lowest OPS+ of his career. Kansas City is still rebuilding, so they don’t need him to be great, but it sure would be nice.

Nicky Lopez could have been here instead, but he is technically underperforming his expected numbers. Salvy regressing this much is just way more unexpected and disappointing after the past two seasons.

Minnesota Twins

Surprise: Max Kepler

Did you know Max Kepler was playing this well? He has the third-highest OPS+ (135) on his team for players who have played at least 30 games and leads the Twins in bWAR. Even with that, he is underperforming both his xWOBA and xSLG. His slugging is actually 130 points lower. Not to mention he has maintained his excellent defense. This could be his best season if he can get closer to his expected numbers.

Luis Arraez was a candidate, but his xBA and xWOBA are much lower than where he is now, and I am not sure if he can sustain that. The same sentiment goes for Joe Ryan on the pitching side.

Disappointment: Alex Kiriloff

Like Bobby Dalbec, Kiriloff had an okay run last year. Through 59 games, he performed worse than expected by quite a bit, but it seemed like there was potential for this season as he had a .366 xWOBA and .538 xSLG. Through 10 games this season, it was not working out. There were only five hits, none for extra bases, and striking out almost 40% of the time.

He seems to be finding his footing in Triple-A again, but his spot might have been taken by either one of Nick Gordon or Trevor Larnach.