The biggest surprise and disappointment for every American League team

Houston Astros

Surprise: Jeremy Peña

The sole successor to Carlos Correa has done a fantastic job replacing the former All-Star. Second in the league for WRC+ and tied for the most fWAR at 2.1 among qualified shortstops with Tim Anderson. Also, Peña has had spectacular defense to potentially make him the best shortstop in baseball this season.

Justin Verlander is on the same level here after returning from Tommy John surgery for his age 39 season and being damn near the identical ace we saw back in 2019.

Disappointment: Yuli Gurriel

Gurriel has had a pretty intriguing and inconsistent career. He has overperformed expected numbers in every one of his successful seasons, so it seems like he is just finally regressing. However, with a decrease in his average exit velocity and expected numbers saying he is still overperforming, Gurriel is finally showing his age.

Los Angeles Angels

Surprise: Taylor Ward

Probably the biggest surprise of the whole season, Taylor Ward is currently the best player in baseball by OPS (1.184) and WRC+ (243). He has been up and down from the majors since 2018 but has never shown this level of play. The 28-year-old has shown incredible discipline, and all underlying numbers suggest this is no hot streak. This year, the Angels are looking great, and Ward’s breakout has been a big part.

Disappointment: Reid Detmers

This may seem like an odd choice, given he has thrown a no-hitter this year, but I did expect more from him. A 4.65 ERA and 5.01 FIP with lower strikeout numbers than last season. He could use more time in the minors as he only pitched eight innings in Triple-A and only 62 innings total before being called up. He doesn’t seem to have a consistent mix he uses, and locating has been difficult with everything catching most of the zone.

Jo Adell was also in contention, but I believe he would have figured it out if they could have given him more time, as he is showing in Triple-A. Both Ward and Marsh breaking out now will prevent him from getting much playing time if he gets back.

Oakland Athletics

Surprise: Paul Blackburn

I don’t think anyone expected such a strong season from him this year, especially since he has been up and down from the league since 2017. Blackburn has a 1.70 ERA and 2.72, which will have him as one of the best pitchers in MLB this season. His 3.38 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA suggest there will be some regression but, either way, Oakland seems to have found a solid piece of their rotation … or another trade asset.

Dany Jimenez has also been incredible in the bullpen, but I think Blackburn’s performance has been more surprising.

Disappointment: Christian Pache

Pache was one of the headline pieces from the Matt Olson trade, and he has not fully lived up to expectations. He was raved about for his defense, which has been fantastic this season. However, his hitting has been quite the opposite, with the lowest WRC+ in the league. Expected numbers see him improving but still being below league average. If he can get to at least average, he could be the American Leagues Harrison Bader.

I also considered Kevin Smith; however, I feel like Pache had higher expectations for this season.

Seattle Mariners

Surprise: Eugenio Suárez

Originally sent to Seattle in a dump-off move from the Reds, Suárez has proved himself a great hitter. Currently sitting with a 127 WRC+ and that is with him still underperforming his expected numbers by a wide margin. Especially regarding his slugging percentage, which is 90 points lower. If both Jesse Winker and Suárez play up to their capabilities, that trade with the Cincinnati Reds will be one of the best in recent history.

J.P. Crawford was also considered, but expected numbers see him coming back down to earth.

Disappointment: Jarred Kelenic

Jesse Winker and Robbie Ray were contenders; however, both seem to be just underperforming, which will hopefully straighten itself out. Kelenic, on the other hand, just has not figured it out at the plate with a .509 OPS and 54 WRC+. Even in the minors right now, he is struggling, which could mean this has become a confidence issue. Some prolonged time in the minors will hopefully give him a chance to work things out.

Texas Rangers

Surprise: Martín Pérez

Jonah Heim has also been very surprising this year with his performance at the plate. Still, Martín Pérez’s play has been much more unexpected. This is the best he has looked in his nine-year career, with a 1.60 ERA and 2.43 FIP. That goes deeper, too, with his xFIP at 3.62 and 3.69 SIERA, both the best of his career. I think he will probably be dealt at the deadline if Texas is still out of the playoffs.

Disappointment: Marcus Semien

Semien has been one of the biggest disappointments in the whole league. He is coming off 2021, where he had the most home runs ever by a second baseman and signed a large contract with the Rangers (sounds eerily similar to Salvador Perez).

He did overperform last season by his xBA and xSLG, but nothing saw this coming. Semien has been slightly better in May but still far away from the player the Rangers thought they were getting.